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10 Rule Basic Horse Racing Method

This is something we have been "playing with" for the last three years. 2011 was a reasonable result even though it showed a loss at level stakes as we were using the Minimalist version of My Staking Plan (as outlined here), 2012 was a losing year with us completely losing a bank during an extreme run of outs (over 20), and 2013 has been quite profitable.

Fortuitously this year, the longest run of win bet outs has been under 15 - "do-able" with a minimum TAB price of $3 - and in 2011 the longest run of outs was in April with a losing run of 16 bets. The longest run of outs for place betting in all of 2013 has been 6 (the average place dividend this year has been $1.67    (Prices here based on NSW TAB prices - you get better on Betfair, but you should base the qualifiers on TAB prices. Which one? Irrelevant in the long term)

What will happen during 2014 and beyond? Naturally I have no idea - nor can I possibly have - so as with all things on this site:Travel at your own risk". (Read the disclaimer at the bottom of the page if that's not clear enough for you!)

You may well be able to improve on this idea and strike rates with your own filters that you believe are appropriate.......especially if you have access to automated analysis programmes.

This is not a set and forget method as you need to be able to ascertain the final prices of any selection within just a minute or two of them starting. Will you always get it right? Of course you won't, (isn't that the nature of the beast?), but what you lose on the swings you'll pick up on the roundabout, as has been our experience with many, many ideas. Will you need to subscribe to any form service? No - all information is freely available in any form guide.

What were the results. Well let's break it down in to a couple of spanning views.

Overall between January 1, 2011 to December 7, 2013 there were 1648 races with 1706 qualifiers (about a 97% single selection per race result) that resulted in 24.9% win strike rate / race and 57.2% place strike rate. The average dividend was $3.88 (no winner was longer than $4.90 or less than $3.00) and the overall loss on turnover for the three years was 6.6% at level stakes. (Prices here based on NSW TAB prices - you get better on Betfair, but base the qualifiers on TAB prices. Which one? Irrelevant in the long term)

This year (2013), through until December 7, 2013 there were 475 races with 489 qualifiers (again about a 97% single selection per race result) that resulted in 32% win strike rate / race and 60% place strike rate. The average dividend was $3.92 (no winner was longer than $4.90 or less than $3.00) and the overall profit on turnover for 2013 so far has been 21.9% at level stakes. Place betting has just abolut broken square.

We use the TAB prices for qualification purposes and then use Betfair to invest as you just about ALWAYS do better. So what were the results using Betfair? Again, irrelevant, as you will never get the same prices as I do as they will always be slightly different, or vastly different, so the effect of the progressive staking that I use and what you may use will result in totally divergent results. You may miss days here and there as I do and you may have been lucky enough to, by chance, have avoided the total wipe out I had during 2012!!

QUALIFYING MEETINGS: ANY DAY, ANY RACE, ANY TRACK IN ANY STATE, ANY TRACK CONDITION. In other words, every day!

THE RULES:

Rule 1: Any qualifying race must be between 950 metres and 3200 metres

Rule 2: Eliminate any race that does not have between 10 and 15 starters (after scratchings)

Rule 3: Any qualifying race must have total prize money of between $8000 and $100,000.

Rule 4: Eliminate any horse that did not finish either first or second at its last start

Rule 5: Eliminate any horse that did not have that last run in the last 10 days

Rule 6: Eliminate any horse that, if it did run 2nd last start, was beaten by more than 3.9 lengths

Rule 7: Eliminate any horse that is not numbered 1 to 13

Rule 8: Eliminate any horse that is not aged between 3 and 8

Rule 9: Eliminate any horse that has had more than 50 career starts

Rule 10: THE ONLY QUALIFIERS CAN BE THOSE THAT YOU JUDGE WILL START BETWEEN $3.00 AND $4.90 ON THETAB - a decision that really can only be made in the last minute or two of betting.

FAQ: So what if there is more than one qualifier? This should only happen in about 2 - 3% of cases based on the historical data. If you are level stake betting I'd back both but if you are progression betting I'd let the race go past - who needs the stress? And what if that one particular race with more than one starter is the one that ends a "losing run"? Well that's the fickle beauty of the punt, isn't it?

TO DOWNLOAD A .PDF WORKOUT (courtesy of BetSelector) OF THE 2013 RESULTS TO DECEMBER 7 Click here

Disclaimer: Gambling on racing can be a very risky business and should only be undertaken with money you can comfortably afford to lose. RaceRate.com, or any of its associates or subsidiaries, cannot accept any responsibility for any loss occurred whatsoever in the use, or misuse, of information supplied