How oftenhave you
heard it said? "If it was able to recaprture its old form
it would beat this field by 10 lengths" and so that sounds
reasonable and logical so you stick your $50 on the things and
guess what? They don't magically recapture their old form and
again run 6th or 7th ater lookng a chance at the turn.
A horse trainer friend
of mine reckons a lot of owners are just as guilty of this mistake
and race their horses for one year more than they should hoping
they recover that form - and they never do.
Here are some examples:
Master O'Reilly won
the caulfield Cup in 2007 and then raced on for four more years
without tasting success
Lachlan River won
the Queensland Derby in 2005 and then raced on for three more
Mr Baritone won the
Stradboke Handicap in 2008 and was then sent around and around
for two more years without even gong close to winning
and you can bet that
on every occassion they ran that people were punting them in the
belief that "if only they could recapture that old form"
they'd bolt in.
Well here's a flash - they rarely do recapture
that old form for all sorts of reasons - but punters
keep falling in.
Truisms that are true:
—Current form beats old form hands down.
—Fit average horses will almost always
beat unfit champions.
If owners want to keep sending their horses around
and around at $1200+ amonth in training fees well that's fine
- but why would you want to send your punting money after them
in the vain hope that "they'll come good again"?
They rarely do.