1200 metre Australian race horse racing winners statistics 2011

Here are some interesting statistics that you may be able to profit from done on all 1200 metre races (TAB) held throughout Australia (all States and Territories).

They are provided for your interpretation and information and while we strive for 100% accuracy, no guarantees are made in regard to that. (In other words, we gave it our best shot!)

These profit and loss and % figures are for all 1200metre races covered by the TAB run nation wide between January 1, 2011 and November 30, 2011 - approximately 2620 races.

Note: there obviously can be more than one qualifier per race but not necessarily any qualifiers per race.

1) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 7 days ago to "today's" race: won 127 or 17.2% of applicable races (739 qualifiers)

1b) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 14 days ago to "today's" race: won 962 or 39.8% of applicable races (9110 qualifiers)

1c) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 21 days ago to "today's" race: won 1566 or 60.5% of applicable races (15186 qualifiers)

1d) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 28 days ago to "today's" race: won 1800 or 69.3% of applicable races (17672 qualifiers)

2) Horses that were beaten by less than 1.1 lengths at their last start: won 930 or 38.4% of applicable races (7319 qualifiers)

2a) Horses that were beaten by less than 2.1 lengths at their last start: won 1266 or 50.0% of applicable races (9866 qualifiers)

2b) Horses that were beaten by less than 3.1 lengths at their last start: won 1576 or 60.9% of applicable races (12594 qualifiers)

2c) Horses that were beaten by less than 4.1 lengths at their last start: won 1806 or 69.4% of applicable races (15154 qualifiers)

2d) Horses that were beaten by less than 5.1 lengths at their last start: won 2023 or 77.5% of applicable races (17603 qualifiers)

2e) Horses that were beaten by less than 6.1 lengths at their last start: won 2176 or 83.34% of applicable races (19621 qualifiers)

3) Horses that were #1 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 544 or 20.8% of applicable races

3a) Horses that were #1 or #2 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 941 or 36.0% of applicable races
     (Also collected 205 quinellas at a s/r of 7.9% for a p.o.t. of -29.7%)

3b) Horses that were #1 through #3 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 1264 or 48.45% of applicable races
     (Also collected 115 boxed trifectas at a s/r of 4.4% for a p.o.t. of -26.6%)

3c) Horses that were #1 through #4 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 1564 or 59.9% of applicable races

3d) Horses that were #1 through #5 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 1794 or 68.7% of applicable races

3e) Horses that were #1 through #6 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 1986 or 76.1% of applicable races

4) Horses that finished 1st at their last start: won 437 or 29.88% of applicable races (2997 qualifiers)

4a) Horses that finished 1st or 2nd at their last start: won 857 or 38.4% of applicable races (5843 qualifiers)

4b) Horses that finished 1st through 3rd at their last start: won 1206 or 48.7% of applicable races (8462 qualifiers)

4c) Horses that finished 1st through 4th at their last start: won 1452 or 56.6% of applicable races (11032 qualifiers)

4d) Horses that finished 1st through 5th at their last start: won 1664 or 64.1% of applicable races (13532 qualifiers)

4e) Horses that finished 1st through 6th at their last start: won 1858 or 71.4% of applicable races (15925 qualifiers)

5) Horses whose last start was within 50 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1200m race: won 1112 races or 43.9% of applicable races (11150 qualifiers)

5a) Horses whose last start was within 100 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1200m race: won 1704 races or 65.3% of applicable races (16991 qualifiers)

5b) Horses whose last start was within 150 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1200m race: won 1780 races or 68.21% of applicable races (17879 qualifiers)

5c) Horses whose last start was within 200 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1200m race: won 2386 races or 91.4% of applicable races (24517 qualifiers)

5d) Horses whose last start was within 250 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1200m race: won 2418 races or 92.6% of applicable races (24856 qualifiers)

5e) Horses whose last start was within 300 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1200m race: won 2472 races or 94.7% of applicable races (25557 qualifiers)


6) Horses who previously had won or been placed over 1200 metres: won 1031 races or 59.4% of applicable races

7) Horses who previously had won at the same course as today's race: won 727 races or 45.5% of applicable races

So your logical (or illogical) brain then says " okay, so we'll throw together rules 1d, 2e, 3e, 4e, 5e, 6 and 7 and it should be a case of the bleeding obvious". Umm, not quite. That would result in a race win strike rate of 29.6% - 267 from 901 qualifying 1200 metre races. Unfortunately there are still 1440 qualifiers which, if you were to level stake bet all of them, would result in a loss of turnover of 17.04%

Interestingly, if you boxed all eligible qualifiers (minimum three in a race) you'd have invested on 121 races during the year, outlayed $1500 in total, scored 16 trifectas and returned $1638.00 - a profit on turnover of 9.2%.

The figures above demonstrate the approach that most punters "adopt" as their form analysis. It shows why betting "with the herd" at level stakes is a recipe for fiscal disaster and why you probably have to adopt another approach to turn the tide in your favour rather than follow "traditional" wisdom. Either that or find the niche within the traditional approach that drops out a lot of the losing races and turns the odds in your favour.

The more sub rules you add in the fewer the number of overall bets which may cause consternation for those that crave that losing "excitement"!!

Unless of course you are using it as one of many simultaneously.

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