1400 metre Australian race horse racing winners statistics 2011

Here are some interesting statistics that you may be able to profit from done on all 1400 metre races (TAB) held throughout Australia (all States and Territories).

They are provided for your interpretation and information and while we strive for 100% accuracy, no guarantees are made in regard to that. (In other words, we gave it our best shot!)

These profit and loss and % figures are for all 1400 metre races covered by the TAB run nation wide between January 1, 2011 and November 30, 2011 - 1830 races.

Note: there obviously can be more than one qualifier per race but not necessarily any qualifiers per race.

1) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 7 days ago to "today's" race: won 144 or 19.0% of applicable races (1293 qualifiers)
   Boxed quinella all qualifiers in applicable races - 21/317 (6.6% s/r) Outlay 877.00 Return 1415.80 (61.4% p.o.t.)

1b) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 14 days ago to "today's" race: won 871 or 48.6% of applicable races (9176 qualifiers)

1c) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 21 days ago to "today's" race: won 1393 or 76.1% of applicable races (14654 qualifiers)

1d) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 28 days ago to "today's" race: won 1543 or 84.3% of applicable races (16453 qualifiers)

2) Horses that were beaten by less than 1.1 lengths at their last start: won 571 or 35.6% of applicable races (4381 qualifiers)

2a) Horses that were beaten by less than 2.1 lengths at their last start: won 819 or 47.3% of applicable races (6302 qualifiers)

2b) Horses that were beaten by less than 3.1 lengths at their last start: won 1054 or 58.4% of applicable races (8477 qualifiers)

2c) Horses that were beaten by less than 4.1 lengths at their last start: won 1259 or 69.3% of applicable races (10567 qualifiers)

2d) Horses that were beaten by less than 5.1 lengths at their last start: won 1420 or 77.6% of applicable races (12497 qualifiers)

2e) Horses that were beaten by less than 6.1 lengths at their last start: won 1543 or 84.3% of applicable races (14106 qualifiers)

3) Horses that were #1 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 375 or 20.5% of applicable races

3a) Horses that were #1 or #2 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 657 or 35.9% of applicable races
     (Also collected 145 quinellas at a s/r of 7.9% for a p.o.t. of -18.9%)

3b) Horses that were #1 through #3 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 883 or 48.3% of applicable races
     (Also collected 59 boxed trifectas at a s/r of 3.2% for a p.o.t. of - 48.9%)

3c) Horses that were #1 through #4 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 1077 or 58.9% of applicable races

3d) Horses that were #1 through #5 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 1257 or 68.7% of applicable races

3e) Horses that were #1 through #6 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 1382 or 75.5% of applicable races
  

4) Horses that finished 1st at their last start: won 300 or 28.1% of applicable races (2120 qualifiers)

4a) Horses that finished 1st or 2nd at their last start: won 580 or 36.8% of applicable races (4146 qualifiers)

4b) Horses that finished 1st through 3rd at their last start: won 826 or 46.9% of applicable races (6189 qualifiers)

4c) Horses that finished 1st through 4th at their last start: won 1039 or 57.3% of applicable races (8224 qualifiers)

4d) Horses that finished 1st through 5th at their last start: won 1218 or 66.8% of applicable races (10208 qualifiers)

4e) Horses that finished 1st through 6th at their last start: won 1390 or 76.0% of applicable races (12102 qualifiers)
    

5) Horses whose last start was within 50 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1400m race: won 599 races or 34.5% of applicable races (6268 qualifiers)

5a) Horses whose last start was within 100 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1400m race: won 873 races or 48.5% of applicable races (9126 qualifiers)

5b) Horses whose last start was within 150 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1400m race: won 946 races or 52.4% of applicable races (9793 qualifiers)

5c) Horses whose last start was within 200 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1400m race: won 1579 races or 86.3% of applicable races (16631 qualifiers)

5d) Horses whose last start was within 250 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1400m race: won 1633 races or 89.2% of applicable races (17181 qualifiers)

5e) Horses whose last start was within 300 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1400m race: won 1728 races or 94.40% of applicable races (18417 qualifiers)


6) Horses who previously had won or "been placed" over 1400 metres: won 634 races or 50.1% of applicable races

7) Horses who previously had won at the same course as today's race: won 524 races or 44.3% of applicable races

So your logical (or illogical) brain may then say "okay, so we'll throw together rules 1d, 2c, 3d, 4e,and 5c".

That would result in a race win strike rate of 41.7% - 695 from 1665 qualifying 1400 metre races. Unfortunately there are still 3874 qualifiers which, if you were to level stake bet all of them, would result in a loss on turnover of 17.4%

Throwing in rule 6 drops the strike rate to 28.9% - 247 from 854 races with 1303 qualifiers - p.o.t. goes to a loss of 14.18%.

Throwing in rule 7 slightly the strike rate to 28.8% - 139 from 483 races with 645 qualifiers - p.o.t. goes to a loss of 10.7%.

The figures above demonstrate the approach that most punters "adopt" as their form analysis. It shows why betting "with the herd" at level stakes is a recipe for fiscal disaster and why you probably have to adopt another approach to turn the tide in your favour rather than follow "traditional" wisdom. Either that or find the niche within the traditional approach that drops out a lot of the losing races and turns the odds in your favour.

The more sub rules you add in the fewer the number of overall bets which may cause consternation for those that crave that losing "excitement"!!

For example, by using all of the rules above AND adding the requirement that the horse carries no more than 56 kilos, it then becomes a race win strike rate of 29.7%, 60 from 202 races with 232 qualifiers - significantly the p.o.t. goes to a gain of 4.2% in profit on turnover.

A simple example but one that illustrates you must be running more than one method over time that provides a profit in the long term and you are not depending on one method to achieve your desired result which one assumes is making a profit in the LONG TERM.

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