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1600m Race horse racing statistics 2011

Here are some interesting statistics that you may be able to profit from done on all 1600 metre races (TAB) held throughout Australia (all States and Territories).

They are provided for your interpretation and information and while we strive for 100% accuracy, no guarantees are made in regard to that. (In other words, we gave it our best shot!)

These profit and loss and % figures are for all 1600 metre races covered by the TAB run nation wide between January 1, 2011 and November 30, 2011 - 1301 races.

Note: there obviously can be more than one qualifier per race but not necessarily any qualifiers per race.

 

1) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 7 days ago to "today's" race: won 117 or 19.4% of applicable races (1189 qualifiers)

1b) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 14 days ago to "today's" race: won 706 or 54.8% of applicable races (7425 qualifiers)

1c) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 21 days ago to "today's" race: won 1105 or 84.9% of applicable races (11339 qualifiers)

1d) Horses that started between 5 days ago and 28 days ago to "today's" race: won 1224 or 94.1% of applicable races (12562 qualifiers)

2) Horses that were beaten by less than 1.1 lengths at their last start: won 422 or 38.1% of applicable races (2919 qualifiers)

2a) Horses that were beaten by less than 2.1 lengths at their last start: won 592 or 48.4% of applicable races (4280 qualifiers)

2b) Horses that were beaten by less than 3.1 lengths at their last start: won 746 or 58.8% of applicable races (5739 qualifiers)

2c) Horses that were beaten by less than 4.1 lengths at their last start: won 895 or 69.2% of applicable races (7147 qualifiers)

2d) Horses that were beaten by less than 5.1 lengths at their last start: won 988 or 76.1% of applicable races (8402 qualifiers)

2e) Horses that were beaten by less than 6.1 lengths at their last start: won 1066 or 82.0% of applicable races (9500 qualifiers)


3) Horses that were #1 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 233 or 17.9% of applicable races

3a) Horses that were #1 or #2 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 434 or 33.4% of applicable races
     (Also collected 97 quinellas at a s/r of 7.5% for a p.o.t. of -7.1%)

3b) Horses that were #1 through #3 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 622 or 47.8% of applicable races
     (Also collected 59 boxed trifectas at a s/r of 4.5% for a p.o.t. of -36.8%)

3c) Horses that were #1 through #4 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 756 or 58.1% of applicable races

3d) Horses that were #1 through #5 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 879 or 67.6% of applicable races

3e) Horses that were #1 through #6 of all runners by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 971 or 74.6% of applicable races
  

4) Horses that finished 1st at their last start: won 225 or 29.1% of applicable races (1522 qualifiers)

4a) Horses that finished 1st or 2nd at their last start: won 445 or 39.1% of applicable races (2993 qualifiers)

4b) Horses that finished 1st through 3rd at their last start: won 641 or 51.0% of applicable races (4502 qualifiers)

4c) Horses that finished 1st through 4th at their last start: won 774 or 60.0% of applicable races (5941 qualifiers)

4d) Horses that finished 1st through 5th at their last start: won 896 or 68.9% of applicable races (7300 qualifiers)

4e) Horses that finished 1st through 6th at their last start: won 1023 or 78.6% of applicable races (8589 qualifiers)
    

5) Horses whose last start was within 50 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1600m race: won 402 races or 33.5% of applicable races (3983 qualifiers)
    Interestingly, if you'd taken a boxed trifecta for all qualifiers under this rule you would have invested 45492.00 and got a return of 66730.60 - a profit of 46.7% 1.1.11 to 30.11.11 but I wouldn't advise that approach!

5a) Horses whose last start was within 100 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1600m race: won 504 races or 40.1% of applicable races (5164 qualifiers)
     Again, as above, a boxed trifecta approach would have returned a profit of 10.8% 1.1.11 to 30.11.11 on an investment of 97290.00 - but not for me!

5b) Horses whose last start was within 150 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1600m race: won 531 races or 42.1% of applicable races (5474 qualifiers)

5c) Horses whose last start was within 200 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1600m race: won 983 races or 75.6% of applicable races (10171 qualifiers)

5d) Horses whose last start was within 250 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1600m race: won 1020 races or 78.5% of applicable races (10643 qualifiers)

5e) Horses whose last start was within 300 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's" 1600m race: won 1132 races or 87.0% of applicable races (11841 qualifiers)


6) Horses who previously had won or been placed over 1600 metres: won 412 races or 44.0% of applicable races

7) Horses who previously had won at the same course as today's race: won 361 races or 41.6% of applicable races

So your logical (or illogical) brain then says " okay, so we'll throw together rules 1d, 2e, 3e, 4e,and 5e.

That would result in a race win strike rate of an incredible 63.6% - 821 from 1290 qualifying 1600 metre races. Unfortunately - isn't there always an unfortunately, there are still 6580 qualifiers which, if you were to level stake bet all of them, would result in a loss on turnover of 19.9%

Throwing in rule 6 drops the strike rate to 32.8% - 235 from 716 races with 1715 qualifiers - p.o.t. goes to a loss of 16.8%. Interestingly, taking boxed trifectas on all races with three or more qualifiers returns a 32.9% profit on turnover of $11070.00.

Throwing in rule 7 drops the strike rate to 31.8% - 78 from 245 races with a loss on turnover of 18.1% from 579 qualifiers. However, MOST interestingly, taking boxed trifectas on all races with three or more qualifiers returns a whopping 93.7% profit on turnover of $4524.00......a profit of $4239.00 - 11 trifectas from 81 qualifying races (or strike rate of 13.6%)

The figures above demonstrate the approach that most punters "adopt" as their form analysis. It shows why betting "with the herd" at level stakes is a recipe for fiscal disaster and why you probably have to adopt another approach to turn the tide in your favour rather than follow "traditional" wisdom. Either that or find the niche within the traditional approach that drops out a lot of the losing races and turns the odds in your favour.

The more sub rules you add in the fewer the number of overall bets which may cause consternation for those that crave that losing "excitement"!!

Unless of course you are using it as one of many simultaneously.

© RaceRate.com 2011. Note web masters: this article may be reproduced on your web site in full provided this copyright notice is also included.