1600
metre Australian race horse
racing winners statistics 2011
Here are some
interesting statistics that you may be able to profit
from done on all 1600 metre races (TAB) held throughout
Australia (all States and Territories).
They are provided
for your interpretation and information and while we strive
for 100% accuracy, no guarantees are made in regard to
that. (In other words, we gave it our best shot!)
These profit
and loss and % figures are for all 1600 metre
races covered by the TAB run nation wide between
January 1, 2011 and November 30, 2011 -
1301 races.
Note: there
obviously can be more than one qualifier per
race but not necessarily any qualifiers
per race.
1) Horses
that started between 5 days ago and 7 days ago to "today's"
race: won 117 or 19.4% of applicable races (1189
qualifiers)
1b) Horses
that started between 5 days ago and 14 days ago to "today's"
race: won 706 or 54.8% of applicable races (7425
qualifiers)
1c) Horses
that started between 5 days ago and 21 days ago to "today's"
race: won 1105 or 84.9% of applicable races (11339
qualifiers)
1d) Horses
that started between 5 days ago and 28 days ago to "today's"
race: won 1224 or 94.1% of applicable races (12562
qualifiers)
2) Horses
that were beaten by less than 1.1 lengths at their last
start: won 422 or 38.1% of applicable races (2919
qualifiers)
2a) Horses
that were beaten by less than 2.1 lengths at their last
start: won 592 or 48.4% of applicable races (4280
qualifiers)
2b) Horses
that were beaten by less than 3.1 lengths at their last
start: won 746 or 58.8% of applicable races (5739
qualifiers)
2c) Horses that were beaten by less
than 4.1 lengths at their last start: won 895 or
69.2% of applicable races (7147 qualifiers)
2d) Horses
that were beaten by less than 5.1 lengths at their last
start: won 988 or 76.1% of applicable races (8402
qualifiers)
2e) Horses
that were beaten by less than 6.1 lengths at their last
start: won 1066 or 82.0% of applicable races (9500
qualifiers)
3) Horses that were #1 of all runners
by the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total
starts): won 233 or 17.9% of applicable races
3a) Horses
that were #1 or #2 of all runners by the average prizemoney
index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 434
or 33.4% of applicable races
(Also collected 97 quinellas
at a s/r of 7.5% for a p.o.t. of -7.1%)
3b) Horses
that were #1 through #3 of all runners by the average
prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts):
won 622 or 47.8% of applicable races
(Also collected 59 boxed
trifectas at a s/r of 4.5% for a p.o.t. of -36.8%)
3c) Horses
that were #1 through #4 of all runners by the average
prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts):
won 756 or 58.1% of applicable races
3d) Horses
that were #1 through #5 of all runners by the average
prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts):
won 879 or 67.6% of applicable races
3e) Horses
that were #1 through #6 of all runners by the average
prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts):
won 971 or 74.6% of applicable races
4) Horses that finished 1st at their
last start: won 225 or 29.1% of applicable races
(1522 qualifiers)
4a) Horses
that finished 1st or 2nd at their last start: won
445 or 39.1% of applicable races (2993 qualifiers)
4b) Horses
that finished 1st through 3rd at their last start:
won 641 or 51.0% of applicable races (4502 qualifiers)
4c) Horses
that finished 1st through 4th at their last start:
won 774 or 60.0% of applicable races (5941 qualifiers)
4d) Horses
that finished 1st through 5th at their last start:
won 896 or 68.9% of applicable races (7300 qualifiers)
4e) Horses
that finished 1st through 6th at their last start:
won 1023 or 78.6% of applicable races (8589 qualifiers)
5) Horses whose last start was within
50 metres (+or -) of the distance of "today's"
1600m race: won 402 races or 33.5% of applicable
races (3983 qualifiers)
Interestingly, if you'd taken
a boxed trifecta for all qualifiers under this rule you
would have invested 45492.00 and got a return of 66730.60
- a profit of 46.7% 1.1.11 to 30.11.11 but I wouldn't
advise that approach!
5a) Horses
whose last start was within 100 metres (+or -) of the
distance of "today's" 1600m race: won
504 races or 40.1% of applicable races (5164 qualifiers)
Again, as above, a boxed
trifecta approach would have returned a profit of 10.8%
1.1.11 to 30.11.11 on an investment of 97290.00 - but
not for me!
5b) Horses
whose last start was within 150 metres (+or -) of the
distance of "today's" 1600m race: won
531 races or 42.1% of applicable races (5474 qualifiers)
5c) Horses
whose last start was within 200 metres (+or -) of the
distance of "today's" 1600m race: won
983 races or 75.6% of applicable races (10171 qualifiers)
5d) Horses
whose last start was within 250 metres (+or -) of the
distance of "today's" 1600m race: won
1020 races or 78.5% of applicable races (10643 qualifiers)
5e) Horses
whose last start was within 300 metres (+or -) of the
distance of "today's" 1600m race: won
1132 races or 87.0% of applicable races (11841 qualifiers)
6) Horses who previously had won
or been placed over 1600 metres: won 412 races
or 44.0% of applicable races
7) Horses who previously had won
at the same course as today's race: won 361 races
or 41.6% of applicable races
So your logical
(or illogical) brain then says " okay, so we'll throw
together rules 1d, 2e, 3e, 4e,and 5e.
That would result
in a race win strike rate of an incredible 63.6% - 821
from 1290 qualifying 1600 metre races. Unfortunately -
isn't there always an unfortunately, there are still 6580
qualifiers which, if you were to level stake bet all of
them, would result in a loss on turnover of 19.9%
Throwing in
rule 6 drops the strike rate to 32.8% - 235 from 716 races
with 1715 qualifiers - p.o.t. goes to a loss
of 16.8%. Interestingly, taking boxed trifectas on all
races with three or more qualifiers returns a 32.9% profit
on turnover of $11070.00.
Throwing in
rule 7 drops the strike rate to 31.8% - 78 from 245 races
with a loss on turnover of 18.1% from 579 qualifiers.
However, MOST interestingly, taking boxed trifectas on
all races with three or more qualifiers returns a whopping
93.7% profit on turnover of $4524.00......a profit of
$4239.00 - 11 trifectas from 81 qualifying races (or strike
rate of 13.6%)
The figures
above demonstrate the approach that most punters "adopt"
as their form analysis. It shows why betting "with
the herd" at level stakes is a recipe for fiscal
disaster and why you probably have to adopt another approach
to turn the tide in your favour rather than follow "traditional"
wisdom. Either that or find the niche within the traditional
approach that drops out a lot of the losing races and
turns the odds in your favour.
The more sub
rules you add in the fewer the number of overall bets
which may cause consternation for those that crave that
losing "excitement"!!
Unless of course
you are using it as one of many simultaneously.
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RaceRate.com 2011. Note web masters: this article may
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