2012
- The way forward
This month
has for me been a lot about trying to gaze in to the
future and foretell where punting success may come from
in 2012.
Of course,
according to all the end-of-the-worlders it doesn't
really matter because this is going to mark the end
of life on earth anyway with some cataclysmic event
foretold by the Mayans of South America 5000 years ago
when they decided this was when their calendar they
invented would come to a close. Great prediction from
a group of folk who hadn't worked out that propelling
a ball with your feet was easier than propelling it
with some sliding-contact-with-hip action that defied
belief.
So
really, we're all knackered anyway so what does it matter?
RAMS will never get any more mortgage money out of me
and Citibank won't have to worry about sending out any
more monthly statements. Nirvana will be found but it
takes the end of the world to get there - duh. Of course,
what if they're wrong? What if there is going to be
a New Years Day meeting at Randwick on January 1, 2013?
Hmm.
Here's what I think.
Over
the years we must have looked at hundreds and hundreds
of ways to try and get an edge on the punt. So have
other people. Big deal. As time rolls by (great
name for a song!) I become absolutely convinced
that to make a consistent long term profit from this
crazy "sport" you simply have to be running
more than one modestly marginally successful approach
to make that gain meaningful and sustainable. This is
absolutely true for me if you are looking at a time
minimalist approach. If you want to sit in front of
the computer five and six hours a day I believe it is
possible to use one focussed and disciplined
method to return a good dividend from that time investment.
Been there. Done that.
If
however you are time focussed on other endeavours, the
one method fits all approach is always threatened by
the "run of outs" syndrome that always seems
to catch up with you at the most inconvenient time.
So obviously you need to find many modestly successful
angles than can all be run simultaneously so that when
one angle goes through the inevitable dry run, the others
cover for it, if you like, and at the end of the day
the combination of methods becomes the very cornerstone
of success.
Note
I continue to use the term "modestly successful"
because I truly believe that is the ONLY way forward
- particularly if you are adopting a set and forget
strategy. "Spectacularly successful" can only
ever be short term. Sure, all modestly successful methods
have some short term periods of spectacular success
but the sky rocket ideas always come unstuck because
of issues like discipline (or lack of), frustration
and focus.
This
next year of 2012 we will be strongly focussed on running
multiple methods on a daily basis - methods that return
around a mimimum 10% flat stake return on investment
over the very long term and with a higher strike rate
so that no matter which ones are "firing"
and which ones are "flat" in any particular
period, we will have the belief and researched knowledge
and, importantly, confidence, that, in the long term,
we should be able to modestly profit from our efforts.
These will all be set and forget methods so we can get
on with all the other stuff that we are also interested
in.
So
our "normal" (if it can ever be described
as that) research efforts will continue through
2012 but my daily punting habits will be restricted
to a very structured approach of following multiple
methods simultaneously. I am currently looking at between
15 and 20 methodologies to adopt and rigidly stick to
throughout the whole of 2012. Next December I'll post
a follow up to this grand annual plan and tell you honestly
how it went.
In
the meantime, I'll set up a "Multi-Meth" page
where I'll post updated results for those system-philliacs
who may choose to join me in the journey - a journey
that may unfortunately be cut short by the grossly inconvenient
end of the world. Damn. Just when everything was going
so well.
What
price is the end of the world on Betfair? And how do
you collect if you're right?
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