Some years
ago I saw an article in a punting magazine that detailed
a staking plan for place betting that reportedly produced
good winnings for place betting if coupled with a selection
method that produced a "high strike rate".
Now they
weren't too exact on what a "high strike rate"
represented in real % terms so maybe with this trial
I was a little low in overall strike rate but it is
what a reasonable method should return if place betting
is your aim. So I decided to do a one year workout on
a method that we had seen was profitable at level stakes.
I based
this on our Melbourne Metro method which during 2011
showed a flat stake place betting profit
of 7% on raw selections. To make it simpler, and not
to be in a situation where I had to bet place bet on
more than one selection per race, I simply amended the
rules in my mind to say "in the event of more than
one selection the bet was on the horse closest to TAB
number 1".
Interestingly
that saw the place strike rate at 61.2% but the level
stakes profit on turnover lifted to 11.3%. In other
words, if I had started with a bank of $1000 and bet
$10 a place on each selection (my favourite 1% of starting
bank approach) I would have invested $980 (on 98 selections)
and finished with a bank of $1111.80 representing a
gross profit on the starting bank of $111 or 11.3% of
the $980 I invested to get there - average dividend
of $1.85.
Had I based
it on a 1% of a rising bank idea the results would have
been slightly better.
Bear
these simple figures above in mind as they are a great
comparison for what is to come!
The
9-7-5 Approach
The
rules are these as outlined:
Divide
your bank by 9 to decide your first bet amount
If
the horse is unplaced divide the bank again by 9 for
the next bet and continue dividing the bank by 9 until
a selection runs a place
Whenever
a selection runs a place your next bet is the remaining
bank divided by 5
If
that selection runs a place the next bet is again the
bank divided by 5 (20%) and continues at that level
until a selection is unplaced.
If
a selection loses, the next bet is the remaining bank
divided by 7.
If
that loses the next bet is the remaining bank divided
by 9 and stays at that level until a selection runs
a place again.(and sequence then repeats)
(In
other words, every time a selection runs a place the
next bet is the bank divided by 5 - there's a "shoulder"
bet of divided by 7 and then return to the divided by
9 amount)
So
how did that work out over a year's trial? Here are
the results:
Well
it would have been an exciting ride but the bottom line
is not so flash. Yes, the gross profit on the same starting
bank of $1000 would have been significantly more at
$1152.38 ( about ten times more in fact gross profit)
BUT to get there you would have to have turned over
$35,439 (!!) and made a profit on turnover of just 3.25%.......
that's less than a third of p.o.t. at level stakes.
The
hidden downside is also the stress of putting nearly
$900 on a couple of selections and the increased levels
of pressure that entails - remember our old saying E=R=L
- excitement equals risk equals losing! Anyway, ladies
and gentlemen, for your investing pleasure, here's the
ride:
Date
Course
Race
Horse
#
Name
Ran
Place
Div
Bet
Bank
1,000.00
Jan-01
Flemington
2
5
Cross
Street
111.00
889.00
Flemington
3
6
Blazing
Gilbert
99.00
790.00
Jan-08
Caulfield
3
3
Grail
Jeuney
2nd
1.30
88.00
816.40
Jan-15
Flemington
4
4
Fashion
Black
163.00
653.40
Flemington
6
3
Chasm
3rd
1.50
93.00
699.90
Jan-22
Flemington
6
4
Big
Spirit
140.00
559.90
Flemington
8
10
Langridge
Street
62.00
497.90
Jan-26
Caulfield
1
7
Miss
Elvee
Won
2.40
55.00
574.90
Jan-29
Sandown
4
4
Reassert
115.00
459.90
Feb-02
Sandown
2
4
Princess
Diablo
66.00
393.90
Sandown
5
14
Shewan
Won
1.40
44.00
411.50
Feb-09
Sandown
1
5
Mr
Molokai
2nd
1.20
82.00
427.90
Sandown
2
3
Coldens
Choice
3rd
2.30
86.00
539.70
Sandown
7
5
Cabeza
108.00
431.70
Feb-12
Caulfield
1
5
Comocean
2nd
2.00
62.00
493.70
Caulfield
3
7
Under
The Eiffel
2nd
1.40
99.00
533.30
Caulfield
9
10
Varenna
Miss
2nd
1.90
107.00
629.60
Feb-19
Flemington
2
9
King
Diamond
Won
1.50
126.00
692.60
Flemington
5
9
Startsmeup
2nd
6.50
138.00
1,451.60
Flemington
8
8
Rubinacci
2nd
1.90
290.00
1,712.60
Feb-23
Sandown
3
8
Testa
My Patience
Won
1.20
342.00
1,781.00
Mar-05
Flemington
2
4
Port
Vell
356.00
1,425.00
Flemington
6
2
Playing
God
3rd
2.20
204.00
1,669.80
Mar-12
Flemington
7
15
Playing
God
3rd
2.40
334.00
2,137.40
Mar-19
Caulfield
5
6
She's
Gifted
Won
1.90
427.00
2,521.70
Mar-26
Caulfield
3
8
Neriani
Won
1.90
504.00
2,975.30
Caulfield
5
12
Testa
My Patience
Won
1.80
595.00
3,451.30
Caulfield
7
7
Base
Won
1.90
690.00
4,072.30
Mar-30
Sandown
3
3
Danahere
814.00
3,258.30
Apr-02
Moonee
Valley
2
4
So
Elusive
465.00
2,793.30
Apr-09
Caulfield
2
4
Valuabelle
310.00
2,483.30
Caulfield
8
12
Vivid
Vixen
Won
2.20
276.00
2,814.50
Apr-13
Sandown
2
13
Rustucated
Won
1.40
562.00
3,039.30
Sandown
8
4
Kenny
Kid
3rd
1.90
608.00
3,586.50
Apr-16
Flemington
2
9
Hi
Belle
717.00
2,869.50
Flemington
3
3
Éclair
Flyer
Won
1.40
410.00
3,033.50
Apr-20
Sandown
3
9
Evie
Rose
2nd
2.10
607.00
3,701.20
Apr-23
Caulfield
3
6
Beldara
3rd
1.70
740.00
4,219.20
May-07
Flemington
4
4
Sheahan
844.00
3,375.20
May-14
Caulfield
7
8
Bell
Trees
482.00
2,893.20
May-21
Flemington
5
4
Dubleanny
Won
1.10
321.00
2,925.30
May-25
Sandown
4
3
Mayneda
Strategy
Won
1.50
585.00
3,217.80
May-28
Caulfield
2
4
Volando
643.00
2,574.80
Jun-04
Sandown
2
4
Shylock's
Daughter
368.00
2,206.80
Sandown
6
7
Ariarni
245.00
1,961.80
Jun-15
Sandown
4
6
Graphic
Won
1.50
218.00
2,070.80
Jun-18
Moonee
Valley
2
6
Golden
penny
Won
1.30
414.00
2,195.00
Moonee
Valley
3
5
Barangaroo
439.00
1,756.00
Jul-02
Moonee
Valley
6
13
Mr
Make Believe
Won
1.40
251.00
1,856.40
Moonee
Valley
8
15
Wordmaster
371.00
1,485.40
Jul-09
Flemington
2
6
Module
Won
1.40
212.00
1,570.20
Flemington
3
6
Set
And Forget
314.00
1,256.20
Flemington
4
3
Midnight
Express
179.00
1,077.20
Flemington
6
14
Mr
Griswold
120.00
957.20
Flemington
7
8
Elumino
106.00
851.20
Flemington
8
4
Maraaseem
Won
3.50
94.00
1,086.20
Jul-16
Caulfield
5
8
Willysfilly
217.00
869.20
Caulfield
7
7
Sorell
Miss
3rd
2.70
124.00
1,080.00
Jul-20
Sandown
5
11
Glamour
Rock
216.00
864.00
Jul-23
Flemington
1
6
Star
Of Giselle
Won
1.04
123.00
868.92
Flemington
3
6
Module
Won
1.04
174.00
875.88
Flemington
6
3
Warm
Love
Won
1.30
175.00
928.38
Flemington
7
7
Testacana
Won
1.30
186.00
984.18
Aug-06
Flemington
3
2
There's
Only One
Won
1.80
197.00
1,141.78
Flemington
5
8
Sarge
In Charge
Won
1.60
228.00
1,278.58
Aug-13
Caulfield
8
6
Biancon
Rose
Won
1.50
256.00
1,406.58
Aug-20
Moonee
Valley
6
3
Hot
Spin
2nd
3.90
281.00
2,221.48
Aug-27
Caulfield
1
3
And
Rock
Won
3.00
444.00
3,109.48
Sep-03
Flemington
2
7
Secret
Hills
3rd
3.10
622.00
4,415.68
Flemington
4
7
Mosheen
883.00
3,532.68
Flemington
5
7
Parables
3rd
1.60
505.00
3,835.68
Flemington
6
16
Lights
Of Heaven
767.00
3,068.68
Sep-10
Moonee
Valley
2
4
Pump
It
438.00
2,630.68
Sep-21
Sandown
5
15
Typeface
Won
1.40
292.00
2,747.48
Oct-08
Caulfield
2
3
Platelet
Won
1.50
549.00
3,021.98
Caulfield
7
2
Helmet
Won
1.20
604.00
3,142.78
Caulfield
8
5
Velnetine
Miss
628.00
2,514.78
Oct-12
Caulfield
6
3
Bliss
Street
359.00
2,155.78
Caulfield
7
12
Neriani
2nd
2.90
431.00
2,974.68
Oct-22
Moonee
Valley
2
7
Torah
Won
2.00
595.00
3,569.68
Moonee
Valley
3
2
Miss
Stellabelle
2nd
1.90
713.00
4,211.38
Moonee
Valley
8
14
Helmet
842.00
3,369.38
Moonee
Valley
9
6
Hi
Belle
2nd
1.90
481.00
3,802.28
Oct-29
Flemington
3
4
Dowager
Queen
3rd
1.30
760.00
4,030.28
Flemington
4
2
Masthead
806.00
3,224.28
Flemington
8
6
Sister
Madly
Won
1.80
461.00
3,593.08
Nov-05
Flemington
4
3
Mental
719.00
2,874.08
Flemington
6
4
Love
Conquers All
411.00
2,463.08
Nov-12
Sandown
5
9
Under
The Eiffel
Won
1.10
274.00
2,490.48
Sandown
7
2
Mahisara
498.00
1,992.48
Nov-26
Sandown
6
10
Freereturn
Won
1.80
285.00
2,220.48
Dec-03
Caulfield
4
3
Our
Pride And Joy
2nd
1.20
444.00
2,309.28
Caulfield
6
6
Miss
Octopussy
462.00
1,847.28
Dec-10
Flemington
2
6
Blue
Ribbon
2nd
1.40
264.00
1,952.88
Dec-24
Sandown
2
5
Spirit
Song
2nd
1.40
390.00
2,108.88
Sandown
7
13
Gig
422.00
1,686.88
Sandown
8
11
Power
O'Raylee
Won
1.70
241.00
1,855.58
Dec-31
Moonee
Valley
6
14
Murdoch's
Joy
3rd
1.80
371.00
2,152.38
111.18
35,439.00
*** Figures have been checked but remember, we're
all human - errors may always occur unintentionally
- figures are based on NSW TAB
This article is copyright
RaceRate.com 2012 . All rights reserved. May be copied
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