90% winners - well, don't we all dream of that yet what if we could do if could fine down the chances in a day's racing to that guaranteed 90% of the winners?
Well here's an interesting
statistic. In a study of over 23000 Australian races, horses that
were beaten by less than 6 lengths at their last start won over
90% of the races. Now 90 % is starting to sound like a pretty impressive
figure. So how did that work out on Saturday 22nd May 2010 and how
many horses were we able to eliminate? Let's use the Caulfield meeting
as an example.
Only one of them won ( one out of 26) - and that was Star Scream who paid (predictably) $19.70 a win which you could argue STATISTICALLY was over the odds - both in percentage terms of the number of races (12.5%) and in the dividend it paid relative to its chance based on this one rule.
Interestingly, in race 2, HALF the field could have been eliminated using this one rule (including the $4.00 second favourite) which left you just 6 entrants to base any further assessment upon. Remember these are long term statistics so tread with caution. About a third of the field could have been immediately eliminated in race 5 and race 6 so your area of further study is getting better and better as far as "time spent" is concerned.
According to this same study, nearly 90%, in fact 87.6%, of races are won by horses in the first six lines of betting. In other words, the market gets it right significantly more times than it gets it wrong. So what happens if those two rules are applied together?
Okay - now you're starting to think laterally here. What if you were laying horses that didn't fall in to the beaten margin winning guidelines and what if you put a cap of say, $4.00, or 3/1, on the price you were prepared to lay them at knowing that 90% of the time they won't win?
Here are some more interesting figures to ponder: over 60% of winners have an average prize money index figure in the top 4 of all runners in any field and well over 80% of races are won by horses that have started sometime in the previous 28 days (83%).
If you are serious about profiting long term, you simply have to bear in mind the long term statistics of the game. To do otherwise is to court disaster.