Strategy
On Barriers In Horse Racing
(From an unsourced article - but whovever wrote it
is pretty smart)
BARRIERS
When
we sit down to study the form, there are of course
many different facets we must consider before we decide
to have a bet. What meeting to bet on, what race to
bet on, prevailing track conditions, distance of
the
race, jockey, weight class etc etc, the list goes
on. It is not an easy task, and if we consider ourselves
good form students, it will always be very time consuming.
But as good form students, we enjoy the challenge.
But the further down the track we head, it is becoming
increasingly evident to me, that one major facet is
standing out in every race we study. Not only should
you do your HOMEwork prior to the race, you should
also analyse the result after the race so you can
work out if you truly did make the right decision.
And this analysis has led us to the conclusion, that
the single most important part of form study is the
barrier draw. We have all seen the look of anguish
on the owner/trainers face, when the television cameras
show them drawing barrier number 16 in the Golden
Slipper. And the look of dismay when the owner/trainer
pulls out barrier number 24 in the Melbourne Cup,
they feel like melting into the ground and disappearing.
Then not long afterward they are spruiking "Well,
he has the speed to overcome the draw" or this
"Oh, she gets back anyway, so the draw doesn't
really matter" What balderdash !!! Deep down
in their heart of hearts they are crying tears of
blood, green with envy of the people who drew barrier
1. Aren't they? If you were drawing a barrier for
your horse in a big Group 1, or a Wyong Maiden for
that matter, what barrier would you want to draw?
Barrier No1 of course, wouldn't you? Yes, of course
you would. Speak with any trainer when their horse
draws a double figure barrier in any race. They will
always tell you the horse will struggle from the barrier.
One of our old hero's, Keith Noud, used to appear
on radio every Saturday morning and spruik. "There
is only one decent barrier, No1, and then they get
progressively worse" True in the 1950s, 1960s,
1970s and still true today in 2006. Look at the statistics
of the race clubs who provide barrier winning statistics.
The best barriers usually provide the winner of the
race. Barriers 1-5 invariable provide the winner.
With the breeding lines of the thoroughbred racehorse
being so wide spread these days, the thoroughbred
racing are much more evenly matched than in years
gone by. So to win a race, the horse must get as many
favours as possible, because there are probably 3-4
in the same race with similar ability. Therefore,
the horse with the best run in the race, will usually
win. The horse who gets a lovely sit in behind the
leader, not too far off the pace, on the fence covering
the least amount of ground, with plenty left to give
at the finish. There's your winner. Now other factors
of course, do play a part, however, if the horse has
good form, is fit and sound, with a decent jockey
and it gets the best run in the race, then it is safe
to assume the horse will be in the finish.
Why is this? Why can't a horse speed to the front
and break the track record and win? Why can't a horse
drop out to last and finish like Bernborough down
the outside and win? Think about it.
A horse starts from barrier 12 in a 12 horse field
over 1200m and he is a leader. What is the jockey
going to do? What will the trainer advise him to do?
Use the horses natural speed and get to the rails
as quick as you can and lead them. Right, easy, barriers
open, jockey does exactly as he was told, burns across
from the outside, gets to the front on the rails after
250m. Great, we win. Wrong. The horse probably broke
a world record for the first 250m to ge there, and
no horse can spend all that petrol and have enough
gas left for the final 200m. Sectional times tell
us, a horse can do it either early in the race, or
late in the race, never both. This can be accentuated
if there are are than 1 or 2 horses that like to lead
in the race. Imagine our jockey tearing out of the
barrier only to find two other jockeys, drawn closer
to the inside had been given exactly the same instructions
as him. After 250m, not only has he spent plenty of
gas, he is 3 deep and stuck there because the two
on his inside are not giving up their positions, and
the horse who drew barrier one is smoking his pipe
in behind the three of them just waiting to blouse
them away in the straight. So what happens is our
speedster from the outside barrier, because he used
up all his petrol at the start of the race, has nothing
left to give in the straight and weakens to finish
back in the ruck.
Let's take the other tack. You fancy a horse drawn
barrier 14 of 14 in a 1400m race. Well, that's okay,
he gets back anyway, and always comes from behind
to win. You have been listening to trainer speak,
haven't you? So, the race begins, and as you suggested,
your horse drops back to last from his wide draw.
Now, one of two things can happen, fast pace or a
slow pace in the race. If the pace of the race is
slow, sectional times again tell us it is a mathematical
impossibility for your horse to finish over the top
of the front runners who have have an easy first 600m.
Because the horses are so evenly matched nowadays,
one cannot run 2 seconds quicker over the last 400m,
when the leaders burnt up little or no petrol at the
start of the race. So what happens, your horse comes
from last, plods to the line, with a faster sectional
than the leaders only to finish just out of the placings.
And how many times have you seen a horse back last
on the turn, on the inside, and the jockey rides him
for luck looking for rails runs? Yes, sometimes they
win, if there has been plenty of pace in the early
and middle stages of the race, and if all the gaps
appear, and if one of the leaders don't collapse and
interfere with your Bernborough and if ........ Gee,
plenty of ifs there, isn't there. And astute profitable
punters don't rely on ifs and buts, they rely on facts
and making all the right decisions.
Here's another example of what could happen from a
wide barrier. You draw 20 of 20 in the Doncaster Handicap.
No problem, 600m run to the first turn, always pace
on, doesn't matter if we get trapped wide, we can
get cover. Again, balderdash !!! Trainer speak, who
are you fooling? Only yourself. Only three choices
form this barrier draw. Either the jockey leads, which
will inevitably mean the horse won't have enough petrol
at the end of the race, because there is always pace
on in a 20 horse field. The horse goes to the rear
and has 19 other rump steaks in front of him, and
he has to go 6-8 wide on the turn, or ride for luck
on the inside through plenty of traffic. Or, the horse
gets trapped 3,4 maybe 5 deep for the entire 1600m,
and you cannot seriously expect a horse to have that
type of run and still finish off better than the horse
who drew barrier 1 and sat 4th on the fence, got the
clear run on top of the rise and hit the front at
the 200m, can you?
Okay, so only three choices from a wide barrier. Either
lead, drop out to last, or sit deep midfield and hope
for a bit of luck. As astute profitable punters, we
don't punt on ifs buts and hope for a bit of luck.
We just don't back horses from poor barrier draws.
Even in small fields, you often see a horse drawn
5 of 5, stuck out there 3 deep. It has no hope of
winning.
Sure, sometimes, your horse from barrier 12 will scoot
to the front, get a cushy lead, and sprint clear in
the straigh to win. And your Bernborough, will drop
out to last and receive a Super Impose like run along
the fence to win. And your Doncaster horse will sit
3 deep with cover and still win. Sometimes, but the
percentages are very low, again, check the barrier
statistics of any race club.
So as the astute profitable punter we are now, from
what barriers do we back horses. Just keep thinking
about our old mate Keith Noud. Personally, we rarely
back horses outside barrier 5 or 6, especially in
small fields. Horses from wide barriers, especially
outside gate 9, rarely win races. Barriers 1, 2, 3
and 4 are the best to ensure your horse gets an easy
run in the race. And the horse with the eaisest run,
will win most races.
