When we sit
down to study the form, there are of course many different facets
we must consider before we decide to have a bet. What meeting
to bet on, what race to bet on, prevailing track conditions, distance
of
the race,
jockey, weight class etc etc, the list goes on. It is not an easy
task, and if we consider ourselves good form students, it will
always be very time consuming. But as good form students, we enjoy
the challenge.
But the further down the track we head, it is becoming increasingly
evident to me, that one major facet is standing out in every race
we study. Not only should you do your HOMEwork prior to the race,
you should also analyse the result after the race so you can work
out if you truly did make the right decision. And this analysis
has led us to the conclusion, that the single most important part
of form study is the barrier draw. We have all seen the look of
anguish on the owner/trainers face, when the television cameras
show them drawing barrier number 16 in the Golden Slipper. And
the look of dismay when the owner/trainer pulls out barrier number
24 in the Melbourne Cup, they feel like melting into the ground
and disappearing. Then not long afterward they are spruiking "Well,
he has the speed to overcome the draw" or this "Oh,
she gets back anyway, so the draw doesn't really matter"
What balderdash !!! Deep down in their heart of hearts they are
crying tears of blood, green with envy of the people who drew
barrier 1. Aren't they? If you were drawing a barrier for your
horse in a big Group 1, or a Wyong Maiden for that matter, what
barrier would you want to draw? Barrier No1 of course, wouldn't
you? Yes, of course you would. Speak with any trainer when their
horse draws a double figure barrier in any race. They will always
tell you the horse will struggle from the barrier.
One of our old hero's, Keith Noud, used to appear on radio every
Saturday morning and spruik. "There is only one decent barrier,
No1, and then they get progressively worse" True in the 1950s,
1960s, 1970s and still true today in 2006. Look at the statistics
of the race clubs who provide barrier winning statistics. The
best barriers usually provide the winner of the race. Barriers
1-5 invariable provide the winner. With the breeding lines of
the thoroughbred racehorse being so wide spread these days, the
thoroughbred racing are much more evenly matched than in years
gone by. So to win a race, the horse must get as many favours
as possible, because there are probably 3-4 in the same race with
similar ability. Therefore, the horse with the best run in the
race, will usually win. The horse who gets a lovely sit in behind
the leader, not too far off the pace, on the fence covering the
least amount of ground, with plenty left to give at the finish.
There's your winner. Now other factors of course, do play a part,
however, if the horse has good form, is fit and sound, with a
decent jockey and it gets the best run in the race, then it is
safe to assume the horse will be in the finish.
Why is this? Why can't a horse speed to the front and break the
track record and win? Why can't a horse drop out to last and finish
like Bernborough down the outside and win? Think about it.
A horse starts from barrier 12 in a 12 horse field over 1200m
and he is a leader. What is the jockey going to do? What will
the trainer advise him to do? Use the horses natural speed and
get to the rails as quick as you can and lead them. Right, easy,
barriers open, jockey does exactly as he was told, burns across
from the outside, gets to the front on the rails after 250m. Great,
we win. Wrong. The horse probably broke a world record for the
first 250m to ge there, and no horse can spend all that petrol
and have enough gas left for the final 200m. Sectional times tell
us, a horse can do it either early in the race, or late in the
race, never both. This can be accentuated if there are are than
1 or 2 horses that like to lead in the race. Imagine our jockey
tearing out of the barrier only to find two other jockeys, drawn
closer to the inside had been given exactly the same instructions
as him. After 250m, not only has he spent plenty of gas, he is
3 deep and stuck there because the two on his inside are not giving
up their positions, and the horse who drew barrier one is smoking
his pipe in behind the three of them just waiting to blouse them
away in the straight. So what happens is our speedster from the
outside barrier, because he used up all his petrol at the start
of the race, has nothing left to give in the straight and weakens
to finish back in the ruck.
Let's take the other tack. You fancy a horse drawn barrier 14
of 14 in a 1400m race. Well, that's okay, he gets back anyway,
and always comes from behind to win. You have been listening to
trainer speak, haven't you? So, the race begins, and as you suggested,
your horse drops back to last from his wide draw. Now, one of
two things can happen, fast pace or a slow pace in the race. If
the pace of the race is slow, sectional times again tell us it
is a mathematical impossibility for your horse to finish over
the top of the front runners who have have an easy first 600m.
Because the horses are so evenly matched nowadays, one cannot
run 2 seconds quicker over the last 400m, when the leaders burnt
up little or no petrol at the start of the race. So what happens,
your horse comes from last, plods to the line, with a faster sectional
than the leaders only to finish just out of the placings. And
how many times have you seen a horse back last on the turn, on
the inside, and the jockey rides him for luck looking for rails
runs? Yes, sometimes they win, if there has been plenty of pace
in the early and middle stages of the race, and if all the gaps
appear, and if one of the leaders don't collapse and interfere
with your Bernborough and if ........ Gee, plenty of ifs there,
isn't there. And astute profitable punters don't rely on ifs and
buts, they rely on facts and making all the right decisions.
Here's another example of what could happen from a wide barrier.
You draw 20 of 20 in the Doncaster Handicap. No problem, 600m
run to the first turn, always pace on, doesn't matter if we get
trapped wide, we can get cover. Again, balderdash !!! Trainer
speak, who are you fooling? Only yourself. Only three choices
form this barrier draw. Either the jockey leads, which will inevitably
mean the horse won't have enough petrol at the end of the race,
because there is always pace on in a 20 horse field. The horse
goes to the rear and has 19 other rump steaks in front of him,
and he has to go 6-8 wide on the turn, or ride for luck on the
inside through plenty of traffic. Or, the horse gets trapped 3,4
maybe 5 deep for the entire 1600m, and you cannot seriously expect
a horse to have that type of run and still finish off better than
the horse who drew barrier 1 and sat 4th on the fence, got the
clear run on top of the rise and hit the front at the 200m, can
you?
Okay, so only three choices from a wide barrier. Either lead,
drop out to last, or sit deep midfield and hope for a bit of luck.
As astute profitable punters, we don't punt on ifs buts and hope
for a bit of luck. We just don't back horses from poor barrier
draws. Even in small fields, you often see a horse drawn 5 of
5, stuck out there 3 deep. It has no hope of winning.
Sure, sometimes, your horse from barrier 12 will scoot to the
front, get a cushy lead, and sprint clear in the straigh to win.
And your Bernborough, will drop out to last and receive a Super
Impose like run along the fence to win. And your Doncaster horse
will sit 3 deep with cover and still win. Sometimes, but the percentages
are very low, again, check the barrier statistics of any race
club.
So as the astute profitable punter we are now, from what barriers
do we back horses. Just keep thinking about our old mate Keith
Noud. Personally, we rarely back horses outside barrier 5 or 6,
especially in small fields. Horses from wide barriers, especially
outside gate 9, rarely win races. Barriers 1, 2, 3 and 4 are the
best to ensure your horse gets an easy run in the race. And the
horse with the eaisest run, will win most races.
