to another web site, career.faqs.com.au, "Actuaries use
mathematics and statistics to determine the likelihood and risk
of a particular event occurring and provide solutions and recommendations
based upon their findings."
a lot in the banking and insurance industry and government and
they research all sorts of statistics to determine boring and
mundane things like what range of premiums to charge 32 year old
non smokers for life insurance based on the statistical probabilities
that they will die before they are 33 and other "stuff"
like that. They "set the odds" for, not only insurance
companies (who rarely lose in the long term unless mismanagement
is in play), but also in the courts system to determine economic
losses in the form of wages and compensation and such in cases
Australian Government web site describes the duties of the actuaries
they employ as "involving the impact of uncertain events,
often in the distant future, on assets, liabilities or revenue
I'm sure you
can see where this is all heading. These folk do not gamble! They
very coldly and precisely match past historical data to future
problem solving criteria and come up with what they believe is
the most likely outcome for any uncertain event.
So where do you fit in to the picture? Are you more typical punter
than actuary, or do you logically (and it has to be your developed
logic!) take the time to assess, based on past performances, what
is the most likely result of an uncertain
event like a horse race?
Do you run
round like a chook with its head cut off before each race looking
for a tip, an omen, a reason to back something, see what's firmed
in the last 5 minutes or have you already got in place a selection
based on the best possible analysis that you can do given the
time you have available to you?
A saying that we often post on the front page of this site:
"In punting, my greatest enemy is time. This is good because
my greatest enemy used to be me."
In this day
and age of abundant information, most of which is freely available
on the internet, there is simply no need, nor justification, to
be the old fashioned punter hanging about in a smoky old TAB,
losing the backside out of your pants regularly on a Saturday.
It's gone past that. Time has moved on. The sport has changed
and evolved in to something quite different.
If you are
time-poor, there's heaps of software out there to do the "heavy
lifting" of mundane things like even eliminating horses you
think can't win (based on historical long term data) and leaving
you with a reduced list of those you think can. Discarding 70%
of the names in front of you is a great starting point for clarifying
your view of any race and will undoubtedly lead to greater success
- even if that just means less losses!
So if you
want to be an actuary more than a gambler, you simply have to
have that long term data available to you to analyse in the first
place, and because of the overwhelming weight of data that is
available, the capacity to analyse it efficiently - and by that
I can tell you a pen and large sheet of paper will never do it
as well as even the most basic computer programme, provided, of
course, (and aren't there always provisos?), the programme
is actually written by someone that has a rough idea of what the
hell they're on about.
What I used
to think was excitement no longer is for me. There was a time
in the distant past where I would actually go to the races, spend
the afternoon betting on the nod with a couple of bookmakers that
I had come to know, (well they knew more about me I suspect and
my penchant to "chase" irrationally) get half to three
quarters full of "ink" and often win substantial amounts
of money (well, they were to me) but just as often lose substantial
amounts of money.
the main excitement is asking "is it better than $2.50
for a win or a place?" -
see My Staking Plan - as before the day begins I know exactly
which horses I want to invest my hard earned on and that list
is absolutely "un-editable". Another side benefit of
knowing you action plan in advance is that you know exactly what
times you need to be "tuned in" to what's happening
and you can make the rest of the stuff you have to do "fit
around" those times.
There is way
more future in being an actuary than a punter when it comes to
making a small profit (or a larger one if you have that desire)
from racing and gambling because there are, by the very nature
of it, far more punters than actuary-type people playing with
it. Do the research - find out for yourself - act upon the outcomes.
Three steps - that's all.
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