THINKING
BEYOND THE BET
Sometimes
we get so caught up in the process of betting that we
overlook what comes next. Because there is always
a next.
If you
have a limited punting bank - that is, money you can
afford to lose without impacting on the important things
in your life - how are you going to allocate it? It's
all very well to be all systems go for, say, Southern
Speed in the Caulfield Cup, but what happens after that
race. Win, lose or draw? What comes after that bet?
And the next one. And the next one. And the next one.
What comes next?
Do you
suddenly have a rush of blood to the old head - I mean,
hey, you just backed a 10/1 winner in the Caulfield
Cup - Mr Invincible is back - let's go for it!! Or is
your next bet exactly the same as what you had on Southern
Speed? Perhaps it's slightly more in accordance with
the added funds available? Perhaps it is less because
you have just caught up past losses and you can return
to your base amount. Either of the latter two options
is a better bet than the the let's go over the top approach
over the long haul.
If you
haven't already decided what your next bet is after
that next bet and how much it is likely to
be, you will find yourself making snap decisions that
inevitably will be wrong.
A staking
plan is nothing all that secretive and wonderfully brilliant.
It really is just a system of financial resource allocation
that, if it works, should be able to guide you through
the ups and downs of runs of wins and losses so that
at the other end of it all, you are marginally better
off than when you started. And marginally better off
is all that you can hope to be.
All successful
long term professional punters bet to win small margins.
Of that there is NO doubt. Most try to win between 3%
to 7% of their annual gross turnover.
Hey, we
all hear the stories of the $2 punter who cracks the
$40,000 quaddie. You know why we hear about them? Because
on the rare occasions it happens, the PR section
at the TAB cranks up in to overdrive and floods the
radio, TV and newspapers with media releases generally
with the title "Small Punter Wins Fortune"
and the air waves are flooded by commentators speaking
in glowing wonderment at the feat.
The TAB
loves it because it is free advertising that encourages
other small punters to have a go at the same investment
in the hope of winning the same amount. Guess what?
They don't.
If you
don't have a staking plan in your arsenal and you are
just madly going from one race to the next with no set
approach - good luck! To have no pre-planned idea on
how you are going to bet and just trusting "the
gambling gods" to give you a lead as the day progresses
is a recipe for total disaster. What do you think is
going to happen? In to your head will pop ideas gifted
to you from on high telling you what to do? What
if these all knowing all seeing all caring (are they?)
gambling gods are busy attending to some other function
or person at the time?
Seriously, you have to develop the approach that will
safely (hopefully) take you through the entire day /
week/ month / year and show a small profit at the end
or your love of the punt will send you broke if not
mad - or maybe both.
Thinking
beyond the bet is merely a way of ensuring you stay
at the table - that you're there for the long haul trying
to win that small percentage. Sure - you will have great
days when you win big percentages but that will, over
time, if you are consistent, return to your own long
term average which all depends on the quality of what
you select and the method you use to arrive at those
selections. What you don't want is escalating big losses
that go on long enough to destroy the bank in total
and leave you outside looking in. And guess what? The
very next race after you are off the table, your selection
will salute - generally at $20 plus. That's just the
way of it.
The smaller
percentage you are trying to win, the longer you get
to play.
Trying
to win a tiny percentage also increases the boredom
factor and this is exactly where your self discipline
kicks in. I have written elsewhere on this site what
I consider to be the truest of truisms - that good old
gambling formula: E = R = L. ( Excitement
= Risk = Losing )
If gambling
on horses is nothing but exciting to you, you need to
reassess where you are going with it all. If arriving
at the selections to bet from doing a fair amount of
thoughtful analysis and not just stabbing them with
a pin or listening to the experts is your go, you may
just be on the path to make a small profit. If you enjoy
the mathematics of running a modest staking plan and
putting in the time and mental effort to do it, you
may be on the path to making a slightly larger profit.
If you
want excitement, have a lash at sky diving. Or riding
the big roller coaster at Dreamworld. Or making love
in a hammock.
Think beyond
the bet. Assess the likely outcome. And then ask yourself
- what comes next? If you can't answer that very simple
question, you're on the wrong tram.
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