had the dust settled on last weekend's Queensland
state election than the stories abounded about how
"someone" had put $10k on the Labor Party
at 100/1 to win less than ten seats and picked up
a cool million dollars in the process.
that "someone"? Probably the same "someone"
whose girlfriend is best friends with the jockey's
wife who told her........or the same "someone"
who saw "this thing trial at a pre dawn workout
on how it ran 22 secs for the last 400 metres into
a 40 kph headwind" - you know, those "someones"!
true? Did someone do that? Don't know. If they did,
good luck to them because they needed it. And they
took unders, I reckon, for something that had never
happened before in history and is highly unlikely
ever to happen again. From the bookmakers point of
view it was a good bet and one I am sure they would
be happy to accept time and time again.
exactly the same as the big payouts you occasionally
hear about where some poor mug has walked in to a
pub where there is Keno - rare to find one without
the ubiquitous animated screens playing over and over
with flashing numbers - and he's fluked a win in the
15/15 jackpot of $3 million. The old keno company
is delighted to be putting out the mandatory press
release about how "a lucky punter has won $3
million in a $1 Keno game". Cheapest advertising
they can get and it works a treat.
highlights and demonstrates the very basic difference
between bookmakers, casinos and lotto companies and
the punters they trade off. The sports bookies and
casinos KNOW that they will get a (almost) fixed return
from every million dollars they turn over - day after
day, week after week, year after year. They take the
long term perspective, confident
in the knowledge that they have "done their sums
right" and can almost be guaranteed of whatever
their targeted return happens to be.
don't care if some dumb-lucky schmuck punter comes
along once in a blue moon and actually wins a million
because they know that when they publicise it in the
all-to-eager media, there'll be another 2 million
punters adopt the same "well if he can win it
so can I" attitude and give them all that money
IS the difference. Most punters work for a short term
fix/gain/plan where the bookmakers and casinos and
can't-lose-lotto-companies ONLY are there working
for the long term profit they are guaranteed of picking
up through turning over large amounts of money in
the quest for a (what some people think of as) a small
long term gain.
this is, really, indisputable, why are you trying
to do it differently? Why do you believe that you
can win long term using a short term approach when
so many thousands and thousands have ventured down
the same path and failed? Why would you think you
are smarter than them? Are you? Really?
term is the cash game, why are you bashing your head
against a wall trying to beat those that really do
know, using a short term strategy?
with this over the years has proved, beyond a doubt
in my mind, that if you are trying to average more
than 1% on turnover (endlessly repeating) in the
very long term, the odds are indeed stacked against
you. As I have written in other places on
this site, the faster you try to accumulate, the higher
the risk. The higher the risk the more the psychological
pressure which CANNOT be overstated. The more the
pressure, the worse the decision making.
is a vicious circle and you always have to be aware
of the consequences. Some horse win, most lose. You
will undoubtedly back many more losers than winners
over the space of a year. Money management (staking)
is, in my opinion, far more important than the method
that you use to decide on which of these conveyances
you choose to invest on.
mediocre winners at a mid week meeting at Oodnagarlarbin
that pay $2.50 are worth exactly the same as the latest
"peoples' champion" who wins the "feature
race of the day" at a flash metropolitan track.That
$2.50 return from a mid week hack buys exactly the
same amount of petrol (which is of course about a
glass and a half at today's prices).
numbers right and this is a good fun way to make a
dollar or two. Get the figures wrong and it is a one
way street to frustration. I always aim for a very
modest return over a very long term in my dealings
and while it may well be sometimes frustrating to
salute with a double figure winner with two fifths
of three quarters of nothing on it, I 'd rather do
that than lose a motza on the latest glamour "certainty"
at $1.90 and have a reduced chance of regaining that
(necessarily) larger amount lost.
you think the industry takes so much time and trouble
write about and speak about the latest "peoples'
champion"? What difference is there between that
and the media release put out by the Keno company
about the latest flukey million dollar winner?
final analysis, if you can't bet like the casinos
and bookmakers and take the long term
view, you really are trying to swim against the tide.
And guess what? The casinos and bookmakers have a
set percentage of their assets set aside for covering
any short term losses that is in a totally different
account that their fixed daily operating and capital
expenditure accounts. It is THEIR punting
bank exactly in the same way as we emphasise
the need to have your own punting bank that is totally
separate from your day to day living expenses.
don't pay the waitresses in the restaurants or the
dealers at the blackjack tables from the same account
as their "gambling operational contingency"
account or whatever it may be called by their conservative
accountants. Neither should you!
always will be a large percentage of half-educated
punters who will always make up the pool that the
more advanced and slightly more knowledgeable will
take their profits from. I don't feel guilty writing
that. It's the way it always has been and the way
it always will be.
biggest decision is what side of the pool you choose
to swim in.
RaceRate.com March, 2012 - All rights reserved. May
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