COUNTERBET
- Harness Racing System 2011
- (Just
ONE losing day in 150 continuous operating days!)
$49.90
Counterbet
was
developed by us in late 2010 and 2011 with the aim of
returning an unspectacular but sustainable profit from
the many many harness races held in Australia each month.
Our starting premise was derived from an observed pattern
of predictability that first became apparent around mid
2010 but had to go on the "back burner" due
to other time commitments.
Our
initial intent was to run a "live" 1500
bet test from January 1. In
the end it became a 1700
live bets exercise that ran from
January 1 2011 to May 30 2011.
Combined
with this method, we generated two different staking plans
- one lowest risk - one medium risk.
Our
sample size was 4751 races run from January 1 to May 30
2011. This resulted in 1706 betting transactions or roughly
36% of all races. The winners strike rate was a respectable
27.4% - 468 winners. The average winner's price was $3.30
and the average "investment" price was $3.50
(Victorian TAB)
Here is a brief synopsis of both staking plans:
a) Lowest Risk Staking Plan (1 January 2011 till close
of business 30 May 2011) (This
is the plan we used in our live test)
Sample
size: 4751 races Bets: 1706 (36% of all races) Winners:
468 (27.4% s/r)
Starting Bank: $1000 Closing Balance: $4888.60
Gross
Profit on initial investment: 388.86% Profit on turnover:
13.43% p.o.t.
Estimated
capacity to withstand a run of outs (depending on prices)
: 12 – 16
An abridged version of this Lowest Risk staking plan can
be downloaded by "right clicking" HERE
b)
Medium Risk Staking Plan (1 January 2011 till close of
business 30 May 2011)
Sample
size: 4751 races Bets: 1706 (36% of all races) Winners:
468 (27.4% s/r)
Starting
Bank: $1500 Closing Balance: $11546.40
Gross
Profit on initial investment: 669.76% Profit on turnover:
16.27% p.o.t.
Estimated
capacity to withstand a run of outs (depending on prices)
: 11 – 14
An
abridged version of this Medium Risk staking plan can
be downloaded by "right clicking" HERE
Note
we do not have a Staking Plan called the NO RISK INVESTMENT
STRATEGY because that would be patently absurd. There
is always risk in these things.
**
Interestingly the LONGEST run of outs resulting from this
methodology was 19. That happened only once in the five
months of testing in late March 2011.
HERE'S THE REAL CLINCHER: There are NO form guide considerations
involved in this methodology. We don't worry
about mile rates, or last halves or classes up or down
or distances being suitable or likely leaders and "sit"
positions or any of the traditional harness racing analysis
considerations. We leave that to the experts. They're
way smarter than us. We just use the end product of their
good work, together with a couple of key added observations,
to make our own profit.
Note
that we used the Victorian TAB as our market guide. Naturally
if you are using the Unitab or NSW TAB you MUST inevitably
come up with some slightly different results. That's just
the way it is and, again, it is a "swings and roundabouts"
situation. What you will lose here and there you'll pick
up in other cases.
Overall
we don't believe the results will vary all that much.
In
fact we don't believe it will matter that much if you
miss out on a slab of races (or days of races) here and
there simply because of the consistency of the results.
What
happens if you only bet on Fridays and Saturdays? Don't
know. We didn't go down that road - again - time constraints
- but we think it would probably be about the same overall.
For the purposes of our proving test we operated on all
harness races in Australia apart from those in West Australia,
Tasmania and Canberra. We did not bet on New Zealand races
although that was an option.
We
didn’t operate on West Australia simply because
of daylight savings times and no other reason. With West
Australia being three hours behind the eastern states
over summer, we simply are not inclined to be still at
a computer betting after midnight.
Similarly
with New Zealand races, it would have meant a 9.30 am
start and the spread of hours from then to late night
meetings was just too great. It would have necessitated
a two person effort to cover that number of meetings.
Perhaps you are part of a two person set up? This may
suit you down to the ground.
Call
us old fashioned but, hey, like you, we have better things
to be doing with our time. It simply makes it too demanding
to be locked out of everything (and everybody) else from
9am to midnight.
If
you are a two person "team" looking at playing
with this then you may be able to incorporate WA and New
Zealand harness racing as well as we believe they are
just as consistent as the rest.
We
did not bet on Tasmanian harness racing because of the
high number of odds on pops (by the way we never bet odds
on) and we did not bet on Canberra because of the high
interchange of NSW and Victorian pacers with too great
a mix of form. Our research figures bear out these exclusions.
If you choose to incorporate them into your "mix"
you will lose. Don’t say we didn't
warn you!
Will
Counterbet work on WA and New Zealand racing? We
believe it will from the limited observation we did on
those venues - in fact there is no reason why it won't,
but we did not include them in our test because of the
time spread reasons.
FAQ:
Do I need to bet on these real time or can I set and forget?
You will need to be on your computer when they race. There
is no other way to do it. Same as all things: what you
get out is directly proportional to what you put in. Absolutely
nothing comes from nothing! Naturally it goes without
saying you need an internet betting account. It also goes
without saying.....so I won't.
In
this case you need to put in the hours. No way around
it. But would you rather put in the hours sitting on your
butt in front of a computer in the comfort of your own
home or spend it getting the same amount of dollars swinging
a shovel, or driving cabs or in retail serving rude people?
You choose.
FAQ:
Do I really have to run an Excel spread sheet to make
this work and how do I do the formulas?
We have supplied all the info to fully explain how these
work. I know some people really freak out about Excel
but it really is quite simple once you get the hang of
it. In fact it is a great skill to acquire for all sorts
of projects far removed from racing. Don't be scared of
it. Embrace it and advance yourself.
Do
you really think that any successful investors get by
doing stuff in their heads? OR scratched out on a piece
of A4 writing paper? Of course not. Losers do that.
We
have supplied all the spreadsheet masters and blank masters
and examples and detailed explanation of the formulae.
If you know nothing about Excel take this valuable opportunity
to learn. It will reward you greatly in terms of knowledge
if nothing else.
Note
we do not have a Staking Plan called the NO RISK INVESTMENT
STRATEGY because that would be patently absurd. There
is always risk in these things.
You will at different times strike a run of outs that
will absolutely destroy your punting bank to oblivion.
GUARANTEED!
Just
as it happened with us on March 27/28 2011.
If you get off to a “flying start” you can
make it even safer by withdrawing on a more regular basis
and keep adjusting your bank down. It really is whatever
YOU feel comfortable with and only YOU know that!
You
may choose to take even higher risks than what we did
- we after all very very conservative with this stuff.
(Life long habit!) Our staking plans can be adjusted up
or down to cater for any risk level you may choose. We
wouldn't go any higher up the risk scale than what we
have. You may be different. Up to you.
FAQ: Would I get better returns if I was using
Betfair? In a perfect world undoubtedly yes but
will you be able to get set on every harness race meeting
you wish to invest on? In the real world probably no.
Our
staking plans are based on starting with a $1000 bank.
Our advice to you, no, our STRONG advice to you, is start
with a smaller bank until you get the "gist"
of how this stuff works and you become familiar with the
pattern. If you are bound to make mistakes to start with
- and you will - make them cheap mistakes!
Upon
purchase we will send you all details of our rules and
plans by email including blank pre-formatted
Excel spread sheets that set out all the
calculations etc etc etc - (all you have to do is fill
in a few squares) - together with a ten page booklet explaining
all the selection rules (a whole 6 of them!)
and a detailed explanation of how the Excel spread sheets
work and the reasoning behind the formulas for both the
Lowest Risk and Medium Risk staking plans - they are slightly
different. You'll be an expert in no time - well, maybe
not an expert but you will be further down the road to
getting a handle on this really useful method.
COUNTERBET
- A method for harness racing / trotting - 2011
$49.90
Don't
choose to use Paypal? No worries. We do accept direct
deposits to our RaceRate account (e-mail us for account
details here)
To
make this product available at the right price, we are
only distributing it as an e-mail attachment to minimise
costs.
Once
we have received your order and confirmation of payment,
you will be very quickly sent by e-mail to your nominated
e-mail address, the full rules and staking plans for Counterbet.
To
purchase Counterbet instantly (well,
maybe not instantly if we are out of the office - but
always within a short space of time!!) using
your credit card via Paypal, click on the Buy Now buttons
on this page and all the system rules and betting sheet
work outs will very quickly be on their way to you via
e-mail.
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