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COUNTERBET Harness Racing System 2011


Counterbet was developed by us in late 2010 and 2011 with the aim of returning an unspectacular but sustainable profit from the many many harness races held in Australia each month. Our starting premise was derived from an observed pattern of predictability that first became apparent around mid 2010 but had to go on the "back burner" due to other time commitments.

Our initial intent was to run a "live" 1500 bet test  from January 1. In the end it became a 1700 live bets exercise that ran from January 1 2011 to May 30 2011.

Combined with this method, we generated two different staking plans - one lowest risk - one medium risk.

Our sample size was 4751 races run from January 1 to May 30 2011. This resulted in 1706 betting transactions or roughly 36% of all races. The winners strike rate was a respectable 27.4% - 468 winners. The average winner's price was $3.30 and the average "investment" price was $3.50 (Victorian TAB)

Here is a brief synopsis of both staking plans:

a) Lowest Risk Staking Plan (1 January 2011 till close of business 30 May 2011) (This is the plan we used in our live test)

Sample size: 4751 races Bets: 1706 (36% of all races) Winners: 468 (27.4% s/r)

Starting Bank: $1000 Closing Balance: $4888.60

Gross Profit on initial investment: 388.86% Profit on turnover: 13.43% p.o.t.

Estimated capacity to withstand a run of outs (depending on prices) : 12 – 16

An abridged version of this Lowest Risk staking plan can be downloaded by "right clicking" HERE

b) Medium Risk Staking Plan (1 January 2011 till close of business 30 May 2011)

Sample size: 4751 races Bets: 1706 (36% of all races) Winners: 468 (27.4% s/r)

Starting Bank: $1500 Closing Balance: $11546.40

Gross Profit on initial investment: 669.76% Profit on turnover: 16.27% p.o.t.

Estimated capacity to withstand a run of outs (depending on prices) : 11 – 14

An abridged version of this Medium Risk staking plan can be downloaded by "right clicking" HERE

Note we do not have a Staking Plan called the NO RISK INVESTMENT STRATEGY because that would be patently absurd. There is always risk in these things.

** Interestingly the LONGEST run of outs resulting from this methodology was 19. That happened only once in the five months of testing in late March 2011.

HERE'S THE REAL CLINCHER: There are NO form guide considerations involved in this methodology. We don't worry about mile rates, or last halves or classes up or down or distances being suitable or likely leaders and "sit" positions or any of the traditional harness racing analysis considerations. We leave that to the experts. They're way smarter than us. We just use the end product of their good work, together with a couple of key added observations, to make our own profit.

Note that we used the Victorian TAB as our market guide. Naturally if you are using the Unitab or NSW TAB you MUST inevitably come up with some slightly different results. That's just the way it is and, again, it is a "swings and roundabouts" situation. What you will lose here and there you'll pick up in other cases.

Overall we don't believe the results will vary all that much.

In fact we don't believe it will matter that much if you miss out on a slab of races (or days of races) here and there simply because of the consistency of the results.

What happens if you only bet on Fridays and Saturdays? Don't know. We didn't go down that road - again - time constraints - but we think it would probably be about the same overall.

For the purposes of our proving test we operated on all harness races in Australia apart from those in West Australia, Tasmania and Canberra. We did not bet on New Zealand races although that was an option.

We didn’t operate on West Australia simply because of daylight savings times and no other reason. With West Australia being three hours behind the eastern states over summer, we simply are not inclined to be still at a computer betting after midnight.

Similarly with New Zealand races, it would have meant a 9.30 am start and the spread of hours from then to late night meetings was just too great. It would have necessitated a two person effort to cover that number of meetings. Perhaps you are part of a two person set up? This may suit you down to the ground.

Call us old fashioned but, hey, like you, we have better things to be doing with our time. It simply makes it too demanding to be locked out of everything (and everybody) else from 9am to midnight.

If you are a two person "team" looking at playing with this then you may be able to incorporate WA and New Zealand harness racing as well as we believe they are just as consistent as the rest.

We did not bet on Tasmanian harness racing because of the high number of odds on pops (by the way we never bet odds on) and we did not bet on Canberra because of the high interchange of NSW and Victorian pacers with too great a mix of form. Our research figures bear out these exclusions. If you choose to incorporate them into your "mix" you will lose. Don’t say we didn't warn you!

Will Counterbet work on WA and New Zealand racing? We believe it will from the limited observation we did on those venues - in fact there is no reason why it won't, but we did not include them in our test because of the time spread reasons.

FAQ: Do I need to bet on these real time or can I set and forget?
You will need to be on your computer when they race. There is no other way to do it. Same as all things: what you get out is directly proportional to what you put in. Absolutely nothing comes from nothing! Naturally it goes without saying you need an internet betting account. It also goes without I won't.

In this case you need to put in the hours. No way around it. But would you rather put in the hours sitting on your butt in front of a computer in the comfort of your own home or spend it getting the same amount of dollars swinging a shovel, or driving cabs or in retail serving rude people? You choose.

FAQ: Do I really have to run an Excel spread sheet to make this work and how do I do the formulas?
We have supplied all the info to fully explain how these work. I know some people really freak out about Excel but it really is quite simple once you get the hang of it. In fact it is a great skill to acquire for all sorts of projects far removed from racing. Don't be scared of it. Embrace it and advance yourself.

Do you really think that any successful investors get by doing stuff in their heads? OR scratched out on a piece of A4 writing paper? Of course not. Losers do that.

We have supplied all the spreadsheet masters and blank masters and examples and detailed explanation of the formulae. If you know nothing about Excel take this valuable opportunity to learn. It will reward you greatly in terms of knowledge if nothing else.

Note we do not have a Staking Plan called the NO RISK INVESTMENT STRATEGY because that would be patently absurd. There is always risk in these things.

You will at different times strike a run of outs that will absolutely destroy your punting bank to oblivion. GUARANTEED!

Just as it happened with us on March 27/28 2011.

If you get off to a “flying start” you can make it even safer by withdrawing on a more regular basis and keep adjusting your bank down. It really is whatever YOU feel comfortable with and only YOU know that!

You may choose to take even higher risks than what we did - we after all very very conservative with this stuff. (Life long habit!) Our staking plans can be adjusted up or down to cater for any risk level you may choose. We wouldn't go any higher up the risk scale than what we have. You may be different. Up to you.

FAQ: Would I get better returns if I was using Betfair? In a perfect world undoubtedly yes but will you be able to get set on every harness race meeting you wish to invest on? In the real world probably no.

Our staking plans are based on starting with a $1000 bank. Our advice to you, no, our STRONG advice to you, is start with a smaller bank until you get the "gist" of how this stuff works and you become familiar with the pattern. If you are bound to make mistakes to start with - and you will - make them cheap mistakes!

Upon purchase we will send you all details of our rules and plans by email including blank pre-formatted Excel spread sheets that set out all the calculations etc etc etc - (all you have to do is fill in a few squares) - together with a ten page booklet explaining all the selection rules (a whole 6 of them!) and a detailed explanation of how the Excel spread sheets work and the reasoning behind the formulas for both the Lowest Risk and Medium Risk staking plans - they are slightly different. You'll be an expert in no time - well, maybe not an expert but you will be further down the road to getting a handle on this really useful method.

COUNTERBET - A method for harness racing / trotting - 2011