an often overheard comment about racing and gambling - there are too
many races on these days to concentrate on.
absolutely right Alice so why do you try?
bet you have should be made as if your life depends on it. If it did,
would you be having the same bet? It is so easy these days to be on
the net with the pay TV blaring away, seeing something coming in the
5th at Oodnagalahbin and thinking "didn't that run well somewhere
the other day - I better throw a lazy ten on it." These "lazy
tenner" bets add up to a lot of money over the space a of a week
or month and can make the difference between winning and losing. THEY
MOST OFTEN DO.
only be betting that $10 if you TRULY believe it can win. It should
be on a race where you have spent a matter of some time assessing
from all the angles you hold to be true. If not, what the hell are
you doing? You should be acting as if that $10 is the last $10 you
have in the account to play with. Every bet should be made with the
serious intention of winning, not just entertaining yourself.
of the time when I'm analysing a race I count the negatives. That
is, count the negatives against each horse and why it can't win. In
fact, it is easier a lot of the time asking why a horse can't win
than trying to look for the positives of why it can win. Is it dropping
back in distance significantly from its last start? Is it going up
so much in class that it can't win against a far better class of animal?
Is it being ridden by a claiming apprentice? Is it drawn out at barrier
18 in a 19 horse field? Is it six weeks since it had a start and its
record indicates it does not race particularly well fresh? Was it
beaten by more than 5 or 6 lengths last start against a similar class
field? Is today's race distance shorter than any race previous in
which it's at least run a place?
are lots and lots of different negatives - some more important than
others - they take time to notate and compile - but if you aren't
doing this to the best of the tie available to you and your learned
ability, again, what are you doing?
above is just a small sample of the negatives you could be looking
for to tell you why a horse can't win. I find that if a horse has
three or more negatives like that they really struggle to win and
they can become a great lay bet for those of us playing around with
Betfair and the like.
There's a poker pro called
Mike Caro whose advice to all players is this: "Play your
best game all the time" and that advice is just
as valid for we horse racing punters. What on earth is the point in
having a bet on something you have not spent time analysing to determine
if it is worth your last ten dollars? Would you have had that bet
in the Melbourne Cup just gone on that horse if it was your last
They may well wish to
televise 40 and 50 thoroughbred races every day on pay TV. The TAB
may think it's a great idea to try and replicate the pokies in a small
way by trying to emulate having instant result after instant result
and hopefully get a bigger turnover from people focused on bet after
bet after bet.
I choose NOT to play
that game. I choose to spend time on a smaller number of races and
hopefully getting a more reasoned result from a greater input effort.
Betting in every race
is not compulsory! No one stands there with a gun at your head demanding
you put money on something - anything! So why play that losing game
Treat every bet as if
it was your last ten bucks and I guarantee you'll be far better off
at the end of the year. You'll also get a greater sense of satisfaction
knowing that that when they win it wasn't just a "half stab in
the dark" and you actually used your intelligence to sort out
the most likely result.
You are undoubtedly better
off having 5 $40 bets a day on 5 races that you have invested thinking/analysing
time in to than 20 random $10 bets on half thought out "might
wins" and hail Mary and hope for the best.
Despite what the screaming
anti gambling do-gooders in the community might tell you and INFER,
gambling is not just something that we poor addicted useless time
wasters do (as if it's any of their **** business) and we are all
half educated nit wits and should be nanny sat by the Government.
Don't start me on that!!!!
It can also be a pursuit
that people, with far more common sense and analytical skills than
the do-gooders have, can enjoy and succeed at on a long term basis
- if they are prepared to put in the time and then follow that up
with - yep, you guessed it - patience and discipline. Oh dear, we're
back to that again.
racing systems and research