Perhaps one of the most
under-estimated aspects of punting is the patience needed BEFORE withdrawing
your winnings to spend on such non essential stuff like food and clothes
and shoes and school uniforms. This is why any punting bank should
not include money for essentials under ANY circumstances. ANY circumstances.
I get tons of emails
from people asking about staking plans and staking levels and "what
should you start with?" etc etc and while I think 5% of your
bank is a good starting point ( a lot would argue 2% is better), by
far the MORE important consideration is where do you start drawing
down on any winnings?
This all relates of course
to simple straight out level stakes betting so it can all be done
"set and forget" and not be sitting in front of a computer
chasing odds all afternoon.
So why 5%? Well if I
am betting on a method that I believe through research returns about
25% winners, I know the average possible losing run is about 16 to
18 so even if I start at the beginning of an "average" possible
losing run, 5% gives me a minimum of 20 bets before I flame the bank
entirely. Hopefully I will be starting with a "usual" strike
rate based on research. It is worthwhile pointing out that even with
an average 25% strike rate there is a possibility of starting with
a "worst possible run of outs" scenario which, on a 25%
strike rate, can vary between 48 and 55 outs. (There is a table
about these potential gambling run of outs available by clicking here:
So with a strike rate
of about 25%, while a 2% level stakes approach is a safer starting
point, 5% works for me BUT only on the understanding that I may flame
a bank or two before getting solid long term accumulation AND knowing
that if I get away to a "good start" I don't have to withdraw
$$$ straight away to have money to go to the supermarket with.
With any new methodology
I get involved with I KNOW that my peak risk time is always going
to be in the first few days and that risk is going to depreciate over
the passage of time given that the "average"conditions prevail.
How many banks do we flame before accepting any method doesn't have
the legs to succeed long term? Three pulls me up - if I can't make
it work in three attempts I pass - give up - move on.
Now bear in mind that
I don't suddenly wake up on a Monday morning and think "hey,
new idea - let's throw a grand at this". That's financially impossible
for me to even contemplate. I always start off pre testing at a $200
level (5% is $10 - even I can work that out so it sits well) - and
if I can turn that $200 in to $500 I am happy to top that up to $1000
and go from there - again at a 5% level ($50) - but in reality higher
than the 5% level because my real money investment is only $700. (Again
- a personal choice of risk exposure which I am very keen to reduce
as quickly as possible).
But here's the rub. If
I can turn that new $1000 bank into $2000 using a constant $50 level
stake approach, by the time the bank gets to 2k, (less of an increase
needed than the initial $200 to $500), that $50 has magically
reduced to two and a half percent of the bank and my worst possible
run of outs is almost "coverable" by the bank. I always
work to a "worst possible scenario" bottom line.
NOTE: this is only possible
IF I haven't had to pull any funds from the bank in the intervening
time and exactly why your punting bank has to be funded from dollars
TOTALLY divorced from your normal day to day expenses money. To illustrate
further, when I started having a really good run with the OutRater
methodology with the $1000 bank, (which actually grew form a $200
pre-trial bank), the initial $50 bet was 5% of the bank (to me
personally it was around 7% - danger, danger!).
Fortuitously, the "average"
strike rate held up from the start and at the end of 1000 bet test
period, that $50 level stakes bet was just 0.4% of the total and the
possible run of outs the bank was able to stand before a total flaming
had gone out to nearly 250 bets.
This was ONLY possible
because I did not have to draw down funds from the account to cover
day to day expenses and accumulation was never threatened by a worst
possible run of outs scenario happening.
As I wrote before, my
major risk period is at the start of a punting venture when my % of
bank risk is greater. Only because I don't HAVE to get funds out,
am I able to build the safety margin needed to prevail against long
runs of outs. I can't see it's possible to do it in any other way.
At some stage to succeed,
you must gamble. It's impossible to gather $$$ in this game without
gambling. Same as in those poker tournaments. You can play as tightly
as you can, never calling from an early position unless mega strong,
always playing only quality hands from a late position etc etc etc
but you will never win any of those tournaments without actually
gambling about half a dozen times during the play. It's just what
it is. There is no getting around it.
I find that once I have
"gambled" against a run of outs at the start of punting
bank and won, the rest is relatively stress free. The longer it progresses
the more you're covered.
The bottom line is this:
you can only be a good winning punter if you master the psychological
aspect of betting. That depends on not desperately needing to win
to maintain your basic necessities of life or your dependants lives.
The punting bank just
HAS to be divorced from any otherwise needed funds. If it isn't, your
thought processes will be corrupted and you will fall back in to the
old habits of making rash decisions and losing. It will not matter,
one ounce, what selection methods you use. There is nothing on this
site that will help you in your punting endeavours if you are not
in control of your betting. If you need to constantly withdraw from
your punting bank to fund life's necessities you are not
in control and can't possibly ever be and consequently, you will not
finish in front.
You are far better off
starting with a very small bank from which you don't have to withdraw
and building up from there. Apart from the psychological aspect, if
you do flame a couple of banks it is not a major financial disaster.
Here's the truth - if
I lost all of the separate banks I am running at the time of writing
this, (five in total), yes, I would be really annoyed but it would
NOT effect my life tomorrow one single bit. None of the funds I have
in play at moment is required for any other purpose to maintain my
family's lifestyle in any way. If they were, she who must be fed would
not be happy and the enjoyment I get from doing what I do would quickly
Sure, think big but,
if you have to, start small. You'll enjoy it more. You'll make less
mistakes. You won't put yourself under any pressure. The internal
arguments with yourself will cease. You will like yourself more.
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