GAMBLING
PATIENCE
Perhaps
one of the most under-estimated aspects of punting is
the patience needed BEFORE withdrawing your winnings
to spend on such non essential stuff like food and clothes
and shoes and school uniforms. This is why any punting
bank should not include money for essentials under ANY
circumstances. ANY circumstances.
I get tons
of emails from people asking about staking plans and
staking levels and "what should you start with?"
etc etc and while I think 5% of your bank is a good
starting point ( a lot would argue 2% is better), by
far the MORE important consideration is where do you
start drawing down on any winnings?
This all
relates of course to simple straight out level stakes
betting so it can all be done "set and forget"
and not be sitting in front of a computer chasing odds
all afternoon.
So why
5%? Well if I am betting on a method that I believe
through research returns about 25% winners, I know the
average possible losing run is about 16 to 18 so even
if I start at the beginning of an "average"
possible losing run, 5% gives me a minimum of 20 bets
before I flame the bank entirely. Hopefully I will be
starting with a "usual" strike rate based
on research. It is worthwhile pointing out that even
with an average 25% strike rate there is a possibility
of starting with a "worst possible run of outs"
scenario which, on a 25% strike rate, can vary between
48 and 55 outs. (There is a table about these potential
gambling run of outs available by clicking here: Losing
Streaks)
So with
a strike rate of about 25%, while a 2% level stakes
approach is a safer starting point, 5% works for me
BUT only on the understanding that I may flame a bank
or two before getting solid long term accumulation AND
knowing that if I get away to a "good start"
I don't have to withdraw $$$ straight away to have money
to go to the supermarket with.
With any
new methodology I get involved with I KNOW that my peak
risk time is always going to be in the first few days
and that risk is going to depreciate over the passage
of time given that the "average"conditions
prevail. How many banks do we flame before accepting
any method doesn't have the legs to succeed long term?
Three pulls me up - if I can't make it work in three
attempts I pass - give up - move on.
Now bear
in mind that I don't suddenly wake up on a Monday morning
and think "hey, new idea - let's throw a grand
at this". That's financially impossible for me
to even contemplate. I always start off pre testing
at a $200 level (5% is $10 - even I can work that out
so it sits well) - and if I can turn that $200 in to
$500 I am happy to top that up to $1000 and go from
there - again at a 5% level ($50) - but in reality higher
than the 5% level because my real money investment is
only $700. (Again - a personal choice of risk exposure
which I am very keen to reduce as quickly as possible).
But here's
the rub. If I can turn that new $1000 bank into $2000
using a constant $50 level stake approach, by the time
the bank gets to 2k, (less of an increase needed
than the initial $200 to $500), that $50 has magically
reduced to two and a half percent of the bank and my
worst possible run of outs is almost "coverable"
by the bank. I always work to a "worst possible
scenario" bottom line.
NOTE: this
is only possible IF I haven't had to pull any funds
from the bank in the intervening time and exactly why
your punting bank has to be funded from dollars TOTALLY
divorced from your normal day to day expenses money.
To illustrate further, when I started having a really
good run with the OutRater methodology with the $1000
bank, (which actually grew form a $200 pre-trial bank),
the initial $50 bet was 5% of the bank (to me personally
it was around 7% - danger, danger!).
Fortuitously,
the "average" strike rate held up from the
start and at the end of 1000 bet test period, that $50
level stakes bet was just 0.4% of the total and the
possible run of outs the bank was able to stand before
a total flaming had gone out to nearly 250 bets.
This was
ONLY possible because I did not have to draw down funds
from the account to cover day to day expenses and accumulation
was never threatened by a worst possible run of outs
scenario happening.
As I wrote
before, my major risk period is at the start of a punting
venture when my % of bank risk is greater. Only because
I don't HAVE to get funds out, am I able to build the
safety margin needed to prevail against long runs of
outs. I can't see it's possible to do it in any other
way.
At some
stage to succeed, you must gamble. It's impossible to
gather $$$ in this game without gambling. Same as in
those poker tournaments. You can play as tightly as
you can, never calling from an early position unless
mega strong, always playing only quality hands from
a late position etc etc etc but you will never win
any of those tournaments without actually gambling about
half a dozen times during the play. It's just what it
is. There is no getting around it.
I find
that once I have "gambled" against a run of
outs at the start of punting bank and won, the rest
is relatively stress free. The longer it progresses
the more you're covered.
The bottom
line is this: you can only be a good winning punter
if you master the psychological aspect of betting. That
depends on not desperately needing to win to maintain
your basic necessities of life or your dependants lives.
The punting
bank just HAS to be divorced from any otherwise needed
funds. If it isn't, your thought processes will be corrupted
and you will fall back in to the old habits of making
rash decisions and losing. It will not matter, one ounce,
what selection methods you use. There is nothing on
this site that will help you in your punting endeavours
if you are not in control of your betting. If you need
to constantly withdraw from your punting bank to fund
life's necessities you are not in control and
can't possibly ever be and consequently, you will not
finish in front.
You are
far better off starting with a very small bank from
which you don't have to withdraw and building up from
there. Apart from the psychological aspect, if you do
flame a couple of banks it is not a major financial
disaster.
Here's
the truth - if I lost all of the separate banks I am
running at the time of writing this, (five in total),
yes, I would be really annoyed but it would NOT effect
my life tomorrow one single bit. None of the funds I
have in play at moment is required for any other purpose
to maintain my family's lifestyle in any way. If they
were, she who must be fed would not be happy and the
enjoyment I get from doing what I do would quickly dissipate.
Sure, think
big but, if you have to, start small. You'll enjoy it
more. You'll make less mistakes. You won't put yourself
under any pressure. The internal arguments with yourself
will cease. You will like yourself more.
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