of Gambling in Racing
It seems that sitting
here day after day and trying very hard to exercise absolute discipline
- (you can never do it 100% is my observation) - that it is only a
natural outcome to slowly increase one's working capital in the punting
To me it seems an unavoidable
outcome but patience is essential for that to happen and is patience
a virtue that you possess?
Can you genuinely say
that you are one of the 5% of people who exercise extreme patience
regardless of the circumstances being faced? There was a guy called
Bernstein who actually did a study in to (would you believe) Behavioural
Finance. He reasoned that his collected evidence “reveals
repeated patterns of irrationality, inconsistency, and incompetence
in the ways human beings arrive at decisions and choices when faced
Sound like you? Irrational?
This chart is really
interesting and, if you have been a punter for any length of time,
I'll bet that you can recognise your own self in this. If you are
new to punting, this is what you can expect to happen.
This chart represents
the start and finish of a punting cycle of a run of "ins"
and "run of outs".
Note that "Optimism"
is at the same level at the start and finish of the cycle. The high
point is after a run of winners and the low point is after a run of
outs. All seem so familiar?
This wave chart is exactly
what happens in most punters' minds, day in and day out, which is
why you must have your emotions under control at all times - ALL times.
It is a wave that will repeat with varying degrees of intensity as
long as you are gambling on horse racing and is NOT avoidable. The
scale and intensity of the highs and lows on this chart are directly
related to length of the run of wins and run of losses.
It is the very reason
why you must be operating with a method of selection that is successfully
picking winners at better than about 30% of the time. Note VERY WELL:
This does not mean it will pick 3 from 10 every ten bets but over
the LONG TERM will pick winners at about 30% of the time or preferably
better. This only works IF you couple that with a staking plan - a
VERY CONSERVATIVE staking plan that allows you to hopefully recoup
running losses and return to profit when the inevitable wave above
occurs AND you adopt a minimum price that you are prepared to accept
about any runner.
Sounds simple, doesn't
it? It's not.
Essentially, using this
broad strategy, punters should "stick" when the run of winners
might tempt them to consider a more aggressive approach, or when the
long losing streak might suck them into a highly defensive approach,
or, even worse, a "who cares it's only another $100" fully
stupid even more aggressive approach. The latter is really a recipe
Punting on horses is
not a short term endeavour. If you don't take the long view you are
racing systems and research