in the form guide
Yesterday was an interesting
day on a lot of levels. One of our long shot methods (read you
need a super amount of patience to play) saluted at Bordertown
with a $15 winner called Pixiu. Wow - good on us. Aren't we stars?
Truth is it neatly
fitted with the rules to one of our methods and took all of .04
secs of computer time to identify it as a selection. (We publish
these free of charge at www.racerate.net every day). What was interesting
though was having a look at its form AFTER the race. Why? To see
if there was even a greater reason to have confidence in this horse
at odds than what simply may have appeared on paper and churned
through our computer.
And, yes, there was
if you'd taken the time to think about it. It's form was an absolutely
uninspiring 009 - it's last start being distanced at Port Augusta
and the previous two runs in Adelaide also being beaten by a considerable
margin. So where's the "hidden bit"? Interestingly it
is trained at Keith - just a hop skip and a jump from Bordertown
in South Australia's far eastern district BUT one hell of a long
way from Port Augusta.
So ask yourself, if
you didn't believe this neddy had any ability whatsoever, would
you hook up the horse float at Keith and drive half way across the
State to Adelaide and then up the side of Spencer Gulf all the way
to Port Augusta?
No. Neither would I.
And did it play up
all the way to Port Augusta and would the shorter journey to Bordertown
be in its favour? Well that of course we can never know because
we weren't there. Only the good lady trainer would have known that.
Perhaps she did. Perhaps that was why it was only $15 in a pretty
ordinary race at Bordertown despite being distanced at its last
This of course is just
one of the chaos factors we often talk about and have no way of
being able to solve. But the clue was there if you'd taken the time
A word of warning however
(as there always is). Often when we are looking for these 'hidden
factors" in an effort to get an outstanding price, we often
tend to over-exaggerate the importance of some of these minor bits
of information and talk ourselves in to things we shouldn't. We
sometimes go overboard chasing the horses at better prices that
mostly deserve to be at those odds and attribute some obscure reasoning
to the task of getting a fatter dividend. That's the trap!
On the other hand,
if you play around with trifectas and the like, you need the longer
priced horse to finish in the placings to make that sort of endeavour
worthwhile and, undoubtedly like you, I have seen many many horses
that I would consider without hope in the race, fall in to second
or third place at huge odds and boost trifecta dividends to incredible
So by all means look
for these little clues along the way but also have the realistic
understanding that they won't win every day and you may well be
barking up the wrong tree many more times than you will be right.
But they are there. That precious commodity called time is probably
what precludes you from identifying them regularly enough.
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