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Hidden Pointers in the form guide

Yesterday was an interesting day on a lot of levels. One of our long shot methods (read you need a super amount of patience to play) saluted at Bordertown with a $15 winner called Pixiu. Wow - good on us. Aren't we stars?

Truth is it neatly fitted with the rules to one of our methods and took all of .04 secs of computer time to identify it as a selection. (We publish these free of charge at every day). What was interesting though was having a look at its form AFTER the race. Why? To see if there was even a greater reason to have confidence in this horse at odds than what simply may have appeared on paper and churned through our computer.

And, yes, there was if you'd taken the time to think about it. It's form was an absolutely uninspiring 009 - it's last start being distanced at Port Augusta and the previous two runs in Adelaide also being beaten by a considerable margin. So where's the "hidden bit"? Interestingly it is trained at Keith - just a hop skip and a jump from Bordertown in South Australia's far eastern district BUT one hell of a long way from Port Augusta.

So ask yourself, if you didn't believe this neddy had any ability whatsoever, would you hook up the horse float at Keith and drive half way across the State to Adelaide and then up the side of Spencer Gulf all the way to Port Augusta?

No. Neither would I.

And did it play up all the way to Port Augusta and would the shorter journey to Bordertown be in its favour? Well that of course we can never know because we weren't there. Only the good lady trainer would have known that. Perhaps she did. Perhaps that was why it was only $15 in a pretty ordinary race at Bordertown despite being distanced at its last three.

This of course is just one of the chaos factors we often talk about and have no way of being able to solve. But the clue was there if you'd taken the time to look.

A word of warning however (as there always is). Often when we are looking for these 'hidden factors" in an effort to get an outstanding price, we often tend to over-exaggerate the importance of some of these minor bits of information and talk ourselves in to things we shouldn't. We sometimes go overboard chasing the horses at better prices that mostly deserve to be at those odds and attribute some obscure reasoning to the task of getting a fatter dividend. That's the trap!

On the other hand, if you play around with trifectas and the like, you need the longer priced horse to finish in the placings to make that sort of endeavour worthwhile and, undoubtedly like you, I have seen many many horses that I would consider without hope in the race, fall in to second or third place at huge odds and boost trifecta dividends to incredible levels.

So by all means look for these little clues along the way but also have the realistic understanding that they won't win every day and you may well be barking up the wrong tree many more times than you will be right. But they are there. That precious commodity called time is probably what precludes you from identifying them regularly enough.

This article is copyright 2013 . All rights reserved. May be copied freely for personal use and yes you can put it up on your web page providing this copyright notice stays in tact.



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