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Horse Racing Fitness Factor

A lot of punters put store in the number of runs that a horse has had in its current preparation as a guide to their fitness.

Here is the raw data from 2011 - covering all TAB race meetings in Australia

These figures are a breakdown of the number of current preparation runs / # qualifying races / # of horses qualifying / wins from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2011 inclusive.

Runs this prpearation    Races Competed     # Qualfying Horses     # Races won        Race Win Strike Rate all qualifiers

NIL (first up)                    10737                         35439                        3027              28.2%

1 run this prep                 12473                        30425                         2778              22.3%

2 runs this prep               12167                        24882                          2547             20.9%

3 runs this prep               10881                        19701                          2058             18.9%

4 runs this prep               9298                          15321                          1572              16.9%

5 runs this prep               7603                          11476                          1167              15.3%

6 runs this prep               6122                          8498                            863                14.1%

7+ runs this prep             9954                          23543                          2204               22.1%

Probably fair to say that first up runners figures are probably flattering and not accurate (especially for non maiden races) due to the number and percentage of first up runners that compete in maiden class races and 2yo and 3yo races bolstering the overall total percentage.

 

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