Horse racing winners statistics 2011 - miscellaneous analysis

Here are some interesting statistics for 2011 that you may wish to consider in your selection approach.

These figures are for all races covered by the TAB run nation wide in the 12 months between November 1 2010 and October 31 2011

(Note: there obviously can be more than one qualifier per race)

 

Criteria	Runners qualifying	Profit on turnover if level bet on all qualifiers
Races won by a horse that started at aSaturday meeting last start	48503	In the 12 months to 31.10.11 there were 13449 races in which at least one horse competed whose previous start was at a Saturday meeting. They won 4598 of them - or a successful strike rate of 34.2%. They also placed 63.2% of the time. HOWEVER there were 48503 of them (a lot of races weren't won by them) so the loss on turnover if you bet on all of them at level stakes would be 23.9%
Last start SP was $5.00 or less	59837	In the 12 months to 31.10.11 there were 15524 races in which at least one horse competed who started at $5.00 or less at their previous start. They won 7855 of them - or a successful strike rate of 50.6%. They also placed 82.6% of the time. HOWEVER there were 59837 of them (a lot of races weren't won by them) so the loss on turnover if you bet on all of them at level stakes would be 21.9%
Won or placed at the distance	46055	In the 12 months to 31.10.11 there were 10183 races in which at least one horse competed who had either won at or been placed at the distance of today's race. They won 4791 of them - or a successful strike rate of 47.0%. They also placed 78.3% of the time. HOWEVER there were 46055 of them (a lot of races weren't won by them) so the loss on turnover if you bet on all of them at level stakes would be 21.0%
Started favourite last start	17655	In the 12 months to 31.10.11 there were 10435 races in which at least one horse competed who had started as favourite at its last start. They won 3023 of them - or a successful strike rate of 29.0%. They also placed 59.0% of the time. HOWEVER there were 17655 of them (a lot of races weren't won by them) so the loss on turnover if you bet on all of them at level stakes would be 18.7%
Won last start OR beaten by no more than 1 length last start	41057	In the 12 months to 31.10.11 there were 14282 races in which at least one horse competed who had either won or been beaten by no more than 1 length at its last start. They won 5419 of them - or a successful strike rate of 37.9%. They also placed 70.6% of the time. HOWEVER there were 41057 of them (a lot of races weren't won by them) so the loss on turnover if you bet on all of them at level stakes would be 23.3%
Won last start OR beaten by no more than 2 lengths last start	55897	In the 12 months to 31.10.11 there were 15297 races in which at least one horse competed who had either won or been beaten by no more than 2 lengths at its last start. They won 7387 of them - or a successful strike rate of 48.3%. They also placed 80.6% of the time. HOWEVER there were 55897 of them (a lot of races weren't won by them) so the loss on turnover if you bet on all of them at level stakes would be 22.2%
Won last start OR beaten by no more than 3 lengths last start	72136	In the 12 months to 31.10.11 there were 15746 races in which at least one horse competed who had either won or been beaten by no more than 3 lengths at its last start. They won 9189 of them - or a successful strike rate of 58.4%. They also placed 88.5% of the time. HOWEVER there were 72136 of them (a lot of races weren't won by them) so the loss on turnover if you bet on all of them at level stakes would be 21.1%

 

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