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Horse racing statistics by last start margins

Here are some interesting statistics that you may wish to consider in your approach to establishing patterns of predictability.

An Australian study was undertaken looking at the performance "today" of horses in relation to their beaten distance last start.

A large percentage of these races were won by horses whose beaten margin was less than 6.1 lengths.

These are significant percentages.

 
Winners
% (applicable races)
Btn 1L or less
10862
47.3
 
 
 
Btn 2L or less
14175
60.2
     
Btn 3L or less
16967
71.6
  
 
 
Btn 4L or less
18971
80.0
 
 
 
Btn 5L or less
20503
86.4
  
 
 
Btn 6L or less
21413
90.3

The infamous "Blind Freddy" would therefore ask why on earth you would be putting anything on any horse beaten by more than 6 lengths at their last start UNLESS there was an enormous drop in race class

 

Horse racing systems and research