When
you look at a race, what’s the first thing that catches your
eye? You could almost bet that, for most punters, it is probably that
magic figure “1” at the end of a horse’s form, signifying
that it won its last start. But is that really such a big deal?
Here
are some interesting figures from the 2012 / 2013 Australian racing
season (August 1 – July 31) based on horses that were last start
winners within 149 metres +/- of “today’s” race
distance :
1000
metre races:
757 occurrences encompassing 1215 individual runners with a race winning
strike rate of 27.1% (overall loss on turnover of 30.3%
at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Perth (31% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Sydney
(8% strike rate)
Best age: 2 year olds (28% strike rate) Worst age: 6 year olds ( 6%
strike rate)
1100 metre races:
612 occurrences encompassing 1039 individual runners with a race winning
strike rate of 28.8% (overall loss on turnover of 26.2%
at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Melbourne (22% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Sydney
/ Adelaide (14% strike rate)
Best age: 2 year olds (20% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 12%
strike rate)
1200 metre races:
1378 occurrences encompassing 2274 individual runners with a race
winning strike rate of 29.5% (overall loss on turnover of 9.22%
at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Sydney (22% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Perth
(13% strike rate)
Best age: 2 year olds (20% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 8%
strike rate)
1300 metre races:
460 occurrences encompassing 748 individual runners with a race winning
strike rate of 28.3% (overall loss on turnover of 15.3%
at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Brisbane (23% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Melbourne
(10% strike rate)
Best age: 6 year olds (20% strike rate) Worst age: 4 and 5 year olds
( 17% strike rate)
1400 metre races:
854 occurrences encompassing 1270 individual runners with a race winning
strike rate of 20.0% (overall loss on turnover of 11.9%
at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Melbourne / Perth (15% strike rate) Worst metro
venue: Brisbane (8% strike rate)
Best age: 5 year olds (16% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 7%
strike rate)
1600 metre races:
608 occurrences encompassing 833 individual runners with a race winning
strike rate of 18.4% (overall loss on turnover of 23.3%
at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Brisbane (21% strike rate) Worst metro Venue: Perth
(4% strike rate)
Best age: 5 year olds (15% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 9%
strike rate)
2000 metre races: (Last start +
/ - margin: 349 metres)
204 occurrences encompassing 314 individual runners with a race winning
strike rate of 24.5% (overall loss on turnover of 32.5%
at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Sydney (24% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Perth
(11% strike rate)
Best age: 4 year olds (26% strike rate) Worst age: 3 year olds ( 8%
strike rate)
NOTE: In assessing the best / worst strike rates
for venues and age groups, only “meaningful” sample sizes
were included.
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