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Last Start Winners Australian racing

When you look at a race, what’s the first thing that catches your eye? You could almost bet that, for most punters, it is probably that magic figure “1” at the end of a horse’s form, signifying that it won its last start. But is that really such a big deal?
Here are some interesting figures from the 2012 / 2013 Australian racing season (August 1 – July 31) based on horses that were last start winners within 149 metres +/- of “today’s” race distance :

1000 metre races:

757 occurrences encompassing 1215 individual runners with a race winning strike rate of 27.1% (overall loss on turnover of 30.3% at level stakes)

Best metro venue: Perth (31% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Sydney (8% strike rate)
Best age: 2 year olds (28% strike rate) Worst age: 6 year olds ( 6% strike rate)

1100 metre races:


612 occurrences encompassing 1039 individual runners with a race winning strike rate of 28.8% (overall loss on turnover of 26.2% at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Melbourne (22% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Sydney / Adelaide (14% strike rate)
Best age: 2 year olds (20% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 12% strike rate)

1200 metre races:

1378 occurrences encompassing 2274 individual runners with a race winning strike rate of 29.5% (overall loss on turnover of 9.22% at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Sydney (22% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Perth (13% strike rate)
Best age: 2 year olds (20% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 8% strike rate)

1300 metre races:

460 occurrences encompassing 748 individual runners with a race winning strike rate of 28.3% (overall loss on turnover of 15.3% at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Brisbane (23% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Melbourne (10% strike rate)
Best age: 6 year olds (20% strike rate) Worst age: 4 and 5 year olds ( 17% strike rate)

1400 metre races:


854 occurrences encompassing 1270 individual runners with a race winning strike rate of 20.0% (overall loss on turnover of 11.9% at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Melbourne / Perth (15% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Brisbane (8% strike rate)
Best age: 5 year olds (16% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 7% strike rate)

1600 metre races:

608 occurrences encompassing 833 individual runners with a race winning strike rate of 18.4% (overall loss on turnover of 23.3% at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Brisbane (21% strike rate) Worst metro Venue: Perth (4% strike rate)
Best age: 5 year olds (15% strike rate) Worst age: 7 year olds ( 9% strike rate)

2000 metre races:  
  (Last start + / - margin: 349 metres)

204 occurrences encompassing 314 individual runners with a race winning strike rate of 24.5% (overall loss on turnover of 32.5% at level stakes)
Best metro venue: Sydney (24% strike rate) Worst metro venue: Perth (11% strike rate)
Best age: 4 year olds (26% strike rate) Worst age: 3 year olds ( 8% strike rate)

NOTE: In assessing the best / worst strike rates for venues and age groups, only “meaningful” sample sizes were included.

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