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Last Three Starts Factor

Back in the 1970s a UK form guy by the name of Che Van der Wheil was "red hot" on the issue of the last three starts being absolutely paramount in any form consideration.
He did a lot of work on last three starts and percentages and some of his charts at that time showed him that horses with these last three starts won this percentage of races:
111 - 33%, 121 - 32%, 141 - 26%, 122 - 30%, 313 - 24%, 214 - 24%, 404 - 5%, 000 - 2%. (Just some examples of his work)

They were some of his figures from the 1970s so I thought it may be instructional to re-visit the same issue some 40 years on and see if the figures still held up.
The only filter we used was the demand that each horse has had at least three starts. No other filters were taken in to consideration.
Spells were not considered either. Most of the races below assume the horse won at least one of their last three starts.

The following chart is presented without comment - draw your own conclusions. It may be a good starting point for your further consideration.

These figures are for the 2012-2013 racing season so far - (Study from August 1, 2012 to February 8, 2013 - 1435 meetings surveyed - about 10000 races).

Last 3 starts figures
# of occurring races
# of horses qualifying
Strike rate / race
Strike rate / selection
All bet - loss %
Av win dividend
111
306
325
30.7%
28.9%
- 1.6%
3.40
112
194
199
24.2%
23.6%
- 5.4%
4.00
113
169
170
15.4%
15.3%
- 37.5%
4.08
114
148
149
14.2%
14.1%
- 20.2%
5.66
115
109
113
14.7%
14.2%
- 24.2%
5.36
116
110
112
14.5%
14.3%
- 19.3%
5.65
117
89
89
7.9%
7.9%
- 74.3%
3.27
118
78
79
14.1%
13.9%
- 44.1%
4.02
119
49
49
10.2%
10.2%
+ 69.0%
16.56
121
195
200
26.7%
26.0%
- 4.8%
3.66
122
188
191
19.7%
19.4%
- 24.2%
3.91
123
150
150
14.7%
14.7%
- 21.5%
5.35
124
121
125
14.0%
13.6%
- 32.8%
4.94
125
95
95
9.5%
9.5%
- 56.4%
4.60
126
89
89
16.9%
16.9%
+ 40.2%
8.32
127
80
80
5.0%
5.0%
- 76.6%
4.68
128
63
63
9.5%
9.5%
- 38.6%
6.45
129
51
51
7.8%
7.8%
- 57.8%
5.38
131
150
151
19.3%
19.2%
- 28.6%
3.72
132
127
128
23.6%
23.5%
+ 11.7%
4.77
133
131
132
13.0%
12.9%
- 33.8%
5.14
134
126
126
12.7%
12.7%
- 26.3%
5.80
135
102
102
10.8%
10.8%
- 17.1%
7.69
136
108
109
11.1%
11.0%
- 34.2%
5.98
Last 3 starts figures
# of occurring races
# of horses qualifying
Strike rate / race
Strike rate / selection
All bet - loss %
Av win dividend
141
129
133
16.3%
15.8%
- 23.9%
4.82
142
122
122
18.0%
18.0%
+ 19.0%
6.60
143
113
113
9.7%
9.7%
- 59.0%
4.21
144
95
96
8.4%
8.3%
- 58.9%
4.94
145
100
100
13.0%
13.0%
+ 7.1%
8.24
146
70
70
11.4%
11.4%
+ 40.1%
12.26
151
94
94
13.8%
13.8%
- 8.2%
6.64
152
102
102
19.6%
19.6%
- 10.1%
4.59
153
94
94
18.1%
18.1%
- 13.6%
4.78
154
87
88
11.5%
11.4%
- 33.0%
5.90
155
85
85
4.7%
4.7%
- 37.2%
13.35
156
74
74
5.4%
5.4%
- 66.4%
6.23
161
82
82
9.8%
9.8%
- 71.6%
2.91
162
88
89
9.1%
9.0%
- 51.5%
5.40
163
85
85
7.1%
7.1%
- 72.2%
3.93
164
87
87
10.3%
10.3%
- 34.5%
6.33
165
72
73
12.5%
12.4%
+ 18.6%
9.62
166
64
65
7.8%
7.7%
- 36.2%
8.30
211
262
272
23.3%
22.4%
- 22.1%
3.47
212
209
217
21.1%
20.3%
- 12.3%
4.33
213
169
171
11.2%
11.0%
- 45.6%
4.90
214
151
153
12.6%
12.4%
- 37.3%
5.05
215
124
124
13.7%
13.7%
- 40.1%
4.37
216
117
119
11.1%
10.9%
+ 12.76%
12.76
Last 3 starts figures
# of occurring races
# of horses qualifying
Strike rate / race
Strike rate / selection
All bet - loss %
Av win dividend
221
255
263
17.3%
16.7%
- 34.6%
3.91
222
214
219
21.0%
20.5%
- 24.2%
3.69
223
197
197
19.8%
19.8%
- 25.7%
3.75
224
146
146
17.8%
17.8%
- 28.8%
4.00
225
107
107
16.8%
16.8%
- 17.9%
4.88
226
90
90
20.0%
20.0%
+ 45.9%
7.29
231
199
202
14.1%
13.9%
- 31.3%
4.95
232
169
173
23.7%
23.1%
- 23.4%
3.31
233
129
130
15.5%
15.4%
- 34.8%
4.24
234
141
142
17.7%
17.6%
- 14.9%
4.84
235
97
99
12.4%
12.2%
- 19.0%
6.68
236
94
94
9.6%
9.6%
- 48.7%
5.36
241
143
144
18.2%
18.1%
- 18.9%
4.49
242
138
139
21.0%
20.9%
- 1.4%
4.73
243
105
106
16.2%
16.1%
- 36.0%
3.99
244
111
112
16.2%
16.1%
+ 28.8%
8.01
245
89
89
11.2%
11.2%
- 48.1%
4.62
246
73
75
8.2%
8.0%
- 36.7%
7.92
251
107
107
12.1%
12.1%
- 35.2%
5.33
252
102
103
20.6%
20.5%
- 21.7%
3.84
253
105
105
8.6%
8.6%
- 19.1%
9.43
254
143
144
18.2%
18.1%
- 18.9%
4.49
255
92
92
7.6%
7.6%
- 39.2%
7.99
256
73
75
8.2%
8.0%
- 36.7%
7.92
Last 3 starts figures
# of occurring races
# of horses qualifying
Strike rate / race
Strike rate / selection
All bet - loss %
Av win dividend
311
179
181
19.0
18.8
- 39.4%
3.22
312
150
150
10.0%
10.0%
- 60.8%
3.92
313
135
135
15.6%
15.6%
- 19.6%
5.17
314
133
133
14.3%
14.3%
- 9.8%
6.31
315
104
104
11.5%
11.5%
- 50.2%
4.32
316
103
104
7.8%
7.7%
- 66.2%
4.40
321
201
203
13.4%
13.3%
- 45.7%
4.09
322
182
183
21.4%
21.3%
- 28.4%
3.36
323
151
152
21.2%
21.1%
- 14.2%
4.08
324
122
124
18.9%
18.7%
+ 2.4%
5.52
325
95
96
12.6%
12.5%
- 42.7%
4.58
326
83
83
15.7%
15.7%
+ 18.8%
7.58
331
146
152
17.8%
17.1%
- 29.5%
4.12
332
140
141
19.3%
19.2%
- 13.7%
4.51
333
137
137
16.8%
16.8%
- 8.0%
5.48
334
99
101
12.1%
11.9%
- 30.2%
5.88
335
101
103
14.9%
14.7%
- 25.6%
5.11
336
83
83
13.3%
13.3%
- 23.9%
5.75
404
70
70
8.6%
8.6%
- 19.4%
9.40
000
492
521
1.6%
1.5%
- 70.1%
19.45

 

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