Late
In The Day Races Theory
Lately
I have been playing with an idea that's based around favourites
and relative field weaknesses and over the period of this study
a few older ideas have been reinforced and a lot of issues have
arisen with late in the day favourites.
If
you are actually one of the few that go to the races these days,
you do notice a few subtle changes in crowd behaviour that I have
always found to be most interesting and you probably will too if
you take the time to observe. The same applies at bigger TABs where
there is a gathering of punters and at larger sports bars so this
observation is not restricted to the track - it is common wherever
the endeavour is to make a dollar or two on the punt.
As
the day goes on, the atmosphere changes and you can actually feel
the anxiety, indecision and frustration levels rise. People stop
laughing as much as they did earlier in the day when they faced
the punting challenge with optimism and the hope of a good win.
A few losses in - a quick count of the remaining bank - the realisation
that you have to salute with a winner soon or things could get quite
grim. The effects are magnified of course with those that are absolutely
plain stupid and drink while gambling. If you drink while gambling
you are a goose.
My
observation has been that mid afternoon the crowd divides in to
three sections - optimists, pessimists and desperates.
The
optimists remain confident that the "bad run" will come
to an end - if they have been having one - and tend to increase
their bets, sometimes alarmingly, in the demonstrably false belief
that the previous races have some bearing on the equally fake "law
of averages".
The
pessimists have meanwhile reached the brink of doom. Another day
of losing looming. Obviously the method they're following is a waste
of space. The favourites aren't winning, the tipsters are scum,
everyone else is to blame except for them - time again to abandon
all reason on take stab at something, anything, favourite in the
next must win and off we go. They don't know anything about the
favourite of course but it must be favourite for a reason. Perhaps
the smarties have backed it?
The
desperates start panicking, mostly because they're punting with
money they simply can't afford to lose, maybe the car payment money
or, worse, the mortgage money, and they start punting up big to
get themselves out of their losing situation without a thought as
to what their end game is going to look like. Take a stab on the
favourite - I mean why else would it be favourite if it wasn't a
"certainty" - as they say in the world of poker "ALL
IN".
These
three groups, I believe, falsely create an air of expectation about
late in the day favourites that see them going off at falsely short
prices in relation to their actual chance and in relation to the
relative weakness / strength of their opposition.
I
notice that some corporate bookmakers even frame what they now call
"get out" bets on a couple of sites. Good grief! Perhaps
it has not occurred to these punters that if it is a desperate get
out bet, perhaps they may have been doing something intrinsically
wrong during the rest of the day? And it may not change for the
last race in any measurement of success performance?
It
is incredible to me that people who approach this business with
some very sound ideas and golden rules, seem willing to break them
more and more as the day goes on. Why?
There
is never a last race. Ever. I have written elsewhere on this site
that I too used to be a victim of the last race mentality - in fact
it always used to be the last race in Sydney. It didn't matter what
price they were, I could never lose. Yeah - right - until "that
day".
Observing
the herd is a fascinating thing and a profitable use of time. Next
time you're at the tote or sports bar - just watch and you will
see that what I have written here is correct. As the afternoon wears
on, the desperation levels rise and the mood changes. It's just
the way it is. A lot of the faces you are discreetly looking at
will show all the signs of uncertainty, hesitation and "jitteriness"
if there is such a word. It is absolutely unmistakable.
So
how does this impact on what I have been playing with? I truly believe
that a lot of the late race favourites are way too short in comparison
to their true odds and over the long term must put people playing
at this pointy end of the market at a real mathematical disadvantage.
The stuff I have been researching, and it only related to favourites,
was showing a pretty fixed success rate of around 45% (VERY short
prices) but when I dropped out the second half of the programmed
races, generally stopped after race 4 on each programme, the success
rate soared to 77%.
Now
it may be that the very short priced ones I was playing with have
a greater degree of success in the weaker, generally programmed
earlier, races. My work on this idea is still incomplete so I can't
say for sure. Then again, can you say anything about this stuff
"for sure"? But it may be worth thinking about and doing
a little observation investigation for your self.
And
if you really want to do some human observation and really notice
stuff, hang around the airport for a while. Now that is a fascinating
exercise!
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