Late
In The Day Races Theory
December 29, 2011
Lately
I have been playing with an idea that's based around
favourites and relative field weaknesses and over the
period of this study a few older ideas have been reinforced
and a lot of issues have arisen with late in the day
favourites.
If
you are actually one of the few that go to the races
these days, you do notice a few subtle changes in crowd
behaviour that I have always found to be most interesting
and you probably will too if you take the time to observe.
The same applies at bigger TABs where there is a gathering
of punters and at larger sports bars so this observation
is not restricted to the track - it is common wherever
the endeavour is to make a dollar or two on the punt.
As
the day goes on, the atmosphere changes and you can
actually feel the anxiety, indecision and frustration
levels rise. People stop laughing as much as they did
earlier in the day when they faced the punting challenge
with optimism and the hope of a good win. A few losses
in - a quick count of the remaining bank - the realisation
that you have to salute with a winner soon or things
could get quite grim. The effects are magnified of course
with those that are absolutely plain stupid and drink
while gambling. If you drink while gambling you are
a goose.
My
observation has been that mid afternoon the crowd divides
in to three sections - optimists, pessimists and desperates.
The
optimists remain confident that the "bad run"
will come to an end - if they have been having one -
and tend to increase their bets, sometimes alarmingly,
in the demonstrably false belief that the previous races
have some bearing on the equally fake "law of averages".
The
pessimists have meanwhile reached the brink of doom.
Another day of losing looming. Obviously the method
they're following is a waste of space. The favourites
aren't winning, the tipsters are scum, everyone else
is to blame except for them - time again to abandon
all reason on take stab at something, anything, favourite
in the next must win and off we go. They don't know
anything about the favourite of course but it must be
favourite for a reason. Perhaps the smarties have backed
it?
The
desperates start panicking, mostly because they're punting
with money they simply can't afford to lose, maybe the
car payment money or, worse, the mortgage money, and
they start punting up big to get themselves out of their
losing situation without a thought as to what their
end game is going to look like. Take a stab on the favourite
- I mean why else would it be favourite if it wasn't
a "certainty" - as they say in the world of
poker "ALL IN".
These
three groups, I believe, falsely create an air of expectation
about late in the day favourites that see them going
off at falsely short prices in relation to their actual
chance and in relation to the relative weakness / strength
of their opposition.
I
notice that some corporate bookmakers even frame what
they now call "get out" bets on a couple of
sites. Good grief! Perhaps it has not occurred to these
punters that if it is a desperate get out bet, perhaps
they may have been doing something intrinsically wrong
during the rest of the day? And it may not change for
the last race in any measurement of success performance?
It
is incredible to me that people who approach this business
with some very sound ideas and golden rules, seem willing
to break them more and more as the day goes on. Why?
There
is never a last race. Ever. I have written elsewhere
on this site that I too used to be a victim of the last
race mentality - in fact it always used to be the last
race in Sydney. It didn't matter what price they were,
I could never lose. Yeah - right - until "that
day".
Observing
the herd is a fascinating thing and a profitable use
of time. Next time you're at the tote or sports bar
- just watch and you will see that what I have written
here is correct. As the afternoon wears on, the desperation
levels rise and the mood changes. It's just the way
it is. A lot of the faces you are discreetly looking
at will show all the signs of uncertainty, hesitation
and "jitteriness" if there is such a word.
It is absolutely unmistakable.
So
how does this impact on what I have been playing with?
I truly believe that a lot of the late race favourites
are way too short in comparison to their true odds and
over the long term must put people playing at this pointy
end of the market at a real mathematical disadvantage.
The stuff I have been researching, and it only related
to favourites, was showing a pretty fixed success rate
of around 45% (VERY short prices) but when I dropped
out the second half of the programmed races, generally
stopped after race 4 on each programme, the success
rate soared to 77%.
Now
it may be that the very short priced ones I was playing
with have a greater degree of success in the weaker,
generally programmed earlier, races. My work on this
idea is still incomplete so I can't say for sure. Then
again, can you say anything about this stuff "for
sure"? But it may be worth thinking about and doing
a little observation investigation for your self.
And
if you really want to do some human observation and
really notice stuff, hang around the airport for a while.
Now that is a fascinating exercise!
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