My
staking plan for horse racing
There is not a week goes
past that I am not asked via e-mail what staking plan
I use.
So, okay, it's no State
secret - I use a very, very cautious staking approach with my own
betting. Why? Because I have no confidence in the selections I use?
No. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I use a cautious ultra
conservative approach because I just hate the pressure that comes
with a long run of outs. Does this mean that I never run in to that
long run of outs? No - it has happened many times over the last few
years but I also withdraw funds from my account on a regular basis
KNOWING that the exceptionally long run of outs MUST occur to the
point of extinguishing a bank. MUST? Absolutely - that's the very
nature of the thing.
At the end of the day,
I couldn't give a "rats" about which horses win and lose,
which ones are "champions", which ones are being "set
for the big one in November", which "jockeys are hot",
which trainers "get the best out of their charges" or any
of the other cliches that fill page after page of racing magazines.
It is absolutely irrelevant to me and gives new depth and meaning
to the phrase "couldn't care less".
I don't care if I back
them for a win or a place and YES, I do back horses for a place if
they are my selection and running at long odds because all I am trying
to do is win one third of one percent per bet I make - WIN
or PLACE or LOSE.
Yes - a losing bet for
me is still a potential one third of one per cent gain. So if, for
example, I make 21 bets I am trying to increase my bank by 7%. Your
bank going to give you 7% over the next few days on your savings?
It's precisely why I couldn't
give a toss if they win or lose - or win at big odds or smaller odds,
or run a place at big odds, the result to me is ABSOLUTELY constant.
I don't need 25/1 winners to make me feel a hero! To me the hero bit
is being able to withstand a long run of outs without losing the lot
or getting agitated about it. Remaining calm is the ultimate prize.
If I was using an ultra
ultra ULTRA conservative approach of trying to win .1 of 1% of my
bank per bet, I would expect to increase my bank by 2.1% from the
same 21 bets. Of course, it never works out EXACTLY that way because
of small targets and fluctuating dividends but I'm sure you get the
picture.
Now that doesn't sound
too hard - but to me it is. I spend a lot of effort during the afternoons
deciding, firstly, win or place and then trying to make the right
decision in fixed bet or tote odds or Betfair odds BEFORE I decide
where to bet. Complicated? No, not really - just time demanding.......and
you get nothing from no effort.
I also have a couple of
hard and fast UNBREAKABLE rules:
Unbreakable Rule 1:
I NEVER bet on anything I can't either get $2.50 a win for or $2.50
a place for. Absolutely unbreakable rule. Why? Because once you start
doing a "carry over losses" AND a continuing escalating
"target amount" staking approach, if you bet below these
price levels the escalation in the amount required gets way too big
too damned fast and the pressure becomes immense. Remember the Golden
Rule: E = R = L = P (Excitement=risk=losing=pressure).Yes,
I know, it's moved on since the original E=R=L!!!
If I can't get that magic
$2.50? Who cares? It's only another race and
I'm happy as Larry to watch it win from the sidelines. Even happier
when they lose.
Unbreakable Rule 2: It DOES matter if I have other
things to do (family, friends, household chores). If I can't fit the
betting in to my schedule I don't care. Other things are way more
important than being there for every bet and EVERY race and at the
end of the day (and I have proven it to myself quite a few times over
the years) what I may lose on the swings I pick up on the roundabouts.
Here's the truth
of it: At the moment I am taking a dear long term friend
up to our local hospital on an almost daily basis for his chemo and
radiation and pain management cancer treatment and every day I sit
in the waiting area in the Cancer Clinic and look around at the many
many people gathered there for the same purpose. Let me make this
observation: not ONE of them is worried if they're lotto numbers come
up this week. Not one. There are far more important things than money.
I know. A hackneyed phrase
but recently rammed home to me at one million miles an hour.
If you think money will solve your life problems you are on the wrong
tram.
Now the only way I can
physically control the betting activity I engage in is via an Excel
spread sheet with built in functions in the cells that make it possible
to sail through the afternoon without a calculator. pens, reams of
paper etc etc etc. - which is how I started out many many years ago
using a system I bought called the Royal Routine System which relied
on tipsters and carry over targets and heaven only knows what. This
was all done on A3 graph paper that I got and a calculator etc etc.
- gosh, when I look back on that. No wonder my first wife thought
I was crazy. Perhaps she was right.
I strongly believe you
need to be able to do things in Excel or the free OpenOffice equivalent.
There is no other real way to do it.
I know. A lot of people
freak out when they see "Excel spread sheets" mentioned
but it really isn't that hard once you get the hang of it. All it
takes is time to understand what you are trying to achieve and the
mathematics of it all. You don't want to understand mathematics? Great.
Stop betting immediately because you are bound to lose and become
one of the 97% that do. No, better still. keep betting with no maths
to back you up so I can put your money in to my account.
So what are the maths.
My spreadsheet works like
this. (I have re-set everything to a bank of $1000 and going back
only a week to make it easy to follow)
So
how does it all fit together? Well A to F columns are obviously just
for the horse data etc - Date, Venue, Race, Time, number, horse's
name.
Column
G is for the dividend (approximately if you are betting on
a TAB and the final div is not known or if you are fixed odds betting
you obviously know what it is). If the selection is hovering around
that magic $2.50 mark on the tote, you have to wait for as long as
possible before committing. What if it falls below $2.50? Can't help
it - you're committed. That's just the way of it.
Column
H is the calculation column for one third of a percent of
the bank from previous line "bank" total PLUS the previous
one third of one percent amount from the previous bet UNLESS the previous
bet was a winning bet. This is indicated by "Won" in the
result column - which you also use if the bet was a place bet that
was successful. "Won" means the bet won - not that the horse
won necessarily. That then negates the adding on of the previous unsuccessful
bet targeted amount. Clear as mud? Well read it again - and again
and again if necessary!
Column
I is the carry over amount of the ACTUAL previous bet unless
,again, negated by the "Won" in the previous bet M column
Column
J is the full target amount in total which includes the .333%
target amount (and any previous unfulfilled) and any previous carry
over losing bets amounts
Column K is the EXACT bet amount at the dividend
amount inserted necessary to get all amounts required covered
Column L rounds it up to the next whole dollar which
becomes the exact amount of the bet (note - always round up - never
down - that way if the div is lower than expected you have a half
way decent chance of finishing where you should have (the advantage
of fixed odds betting)
Column M signifies if a winning bet - leave blank
if a losing bet
Column
N is the exact dividend received for any winning bet
Column O is the progressive bank upon which the percentages
in Column H are based.
You
may notice in the sheet demo above that some numbers are in blue and
most in black. The blue numbers are the method I use to indicate a
place bet and not a win bet. (Just saves folk writing and asking!)
So
how's that? Clear as mud? Well it really is quite simple and soundly
based. Column H's formula can be varied to suit whatever your target
amount is (and comfort level). If you only wanted to chase .1 of 1%,
your divisor here would be 1000 not 333 which we use for one third
of one percent or 250 if you wanted to chase one quarter of one percent.
How do you write the formula? It would take me pages and pages to
set it out chapter and verse.
A good starting point for those completely unfamiliar with spread
sheet calculations would be to go to the Library (yes, they still
have those!) or bookstore (yes, they still have those!)
and Excel For Dummies and start playing around - it was the only way
I could get my head around it. And it will be a valuable skill for
you in the future. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not, the
world runs on spreadsheets of one type or another and will continue
to do so.
Failing
that, if you can't be bothered setting up your own spreadsheet, I'll
send you mine with the formula sections locked for 524 bets and all
you have to do is enter the info in columns A to G and M and N where
necessary over the top of mine and it will do the "stuff"
for you - outlining what your bet level needs to be for each selection
according to price and whatever your starting bank happens to be.
I'll also send you the password to unlock the spreadsheet if you want
to play with formulas to suit your own aspirations and a hard
copy of the formulae for each column that makes it work.
Cost?
$14.95
Click
on the buy now button here and I'll happily send it all to you by
e- mail.
Spreadsheets for use with
Excel 1997-2003 and 2007&2010 are included and, yes, they do work
in the free OpenOffice version of Excel.
PLEASE NOTE VERY WELL:
Unfortunately I do not have unlimited hours to run some sort of How
To Use Excel Via Email Courses - if you don't have a basic understanding
of how to use Excel as far as adding data and copying and pasting
cells and their formula and the like this is probably not for you
unless you are prepared to put in the learning effort via a book like
Excel For Dummies. As explained above, my afternoons are already full
to overflowing and I simply don't have the time to step every new
Excel learner through the process - that's what TAFE colleges do :-)
Horse
racing systems and research
