Non Maiden
Class Horse racing statistics 2011
Here
are some interesting statistics that you may be able to profit from
done on all races (TAB & non TAB) held throughout Australia (all
States and Territories). They are provided for your interpretation
and information and while we strive for 100% accuracy, no guarantees
are made in regard to that. (In other words, we gave it our best
shot over many many hours!)
These profit and loss and
% figures are for all non maiden performers in all races covered
by the TAB run nation wide between December 31, 2009 and
November 1, 2011 - approximately 20002
races.
Note: there obviously can
be more than one qualifier per race but not necessarily any qualifiers
per race.
1) Horses
that started between 7 days ago and 21 days ago to "today's"
race: won 13562 of those races or 68.5% of applicable races
2) Horses
that were beaten by less than 3.1 lengths at their last start:
won 11593 of those races or 58.9% of applicable races
3) Horses
that were in the Top 4 (or equal Top 4) of of the average prizemoney
index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 11698 of those
races or 58.5% of applicable races
4) Horses
that finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th at their last start: won
11629 of those races or 58.8% of applicable races
5) Horses
whose last start was within 100 metres of the distance of "today's"
race: won 10164 races or 53.1% of applicable races
6) Horses who previously had won or been placed
within about 100 metres of "today's" race: won 8614
races or 47.0% of applicable races
7) Horses who previously had won at the course:
won 7429 races or 43.5% of applicable races
All of these qualifications
above showed about a 20%+ p.o.t. loss at level stakes (win betting)
due to the high numbers of qualifiers per race that needed to be invested
on.
8) Horses
that satisfied rules 1 & 2 above: won 46.6% of 18700 races
- win p.o.t. -17.6% at level stakes all
qualifiers - place p.o.t. -14.4% at level
stakes all qualifiers
9) Horses
that satisfied rules 1, 2 & 3 above: won 34.7% of 15971
races - win p.o.t. -16.0% at level stakes
all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -11.4%
at level stakes all qualifiers
10) Horses
that satisfied rules 1, 2, 3 & 4 above: won 33.1% of 15064
races - win p.o.t. -16.1% at level stakes
all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -12.0%
at level stakes all qualifiers
11) Horses
that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4 & 5 above: won 28.3% of 10469
races - win p.o.t. -14.0% at level stakes
all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -11.6%
at level stakes all qualifiers
12) Horses
that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4,5 & 6 above: won 26.3% of
6542 races - win p.o.t. -12.3% at level
stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -11.8%
at level stakes all qualifiers
13) Horses
that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4,5, 6 & 7 above: won 26.7%
of 3774 races - win p.o.t. -12.3% at
level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -9.7%
at level stakes all qualifiers
14) If you then add in an
extra rule: Horses that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4,5,
6 & 7 above AND started at $5.00 or less last start: won
29.0% of 2567 races - win p.o.t. -10.9%
at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -8.9%
at level stakes all qualifiers. Interestingly it made a small profit
on boxed trifectas in races where there were sufficient qualifiers.
15) If you change that sp
price from $5 to $4 and satisfy all the other rules: won 29.4% of
2218 races - win p.o.t. -9.9% at level
stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -8.6%
at level stakes all qualifiers. It also made a small profit on boxed
trifectas (only 10 over nearly two years!) and quinellas in races
where there were sufficient qualifiers it returned 8% p.o.t. on 127
boxed quinellas.
16) If you change that sp
price from $4 to $3 and satisfy all the other rules: won 31.1% of
1632 races - win p.o.t. -7.0% at level
stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -10.1%
at level stakes all qualifiers. It also made losses on boxed trifectas
and quinellas. Why? Well at $3 sp last start you are getting in to
the realm of last start favourites which are always overbet.
The figures above demonstrate
the approach that most punters "adopt" as their form analysis.
It shows why betting "with the herd" at level stakes is
a recipe for fiscal disaster and why you probably have to adopt another
approach to turn the tide in your favour rather than follow "traditional"
wisdom. Either that or find the niche within the traditional approach
that drops out a lot of the losing races and turns the odds in your
favour.
The more sub rules you add
in the fewer the number of overall bets which may cause consternation
for those that crave that losing "excitement"!! Unless of
course you are using it as one of many simultaneously.
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RaceRate.com 2011. Note web masters: this article may be reproduced
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