Non Maiden Class Horse racing winners statistics 2011

Here are some interesting statistics that you may be able to profit from done on all races (TAB & non TAB) held throughout Australia (all States and Territories). They are provided for your interpretation and information and while we strive for 100% accuracy, no guarantees are made in regard to that. (In other words, we gave it our best shot over many many hours!)

These profit and loss and % figures are for all non maiden performers in all races covered by the TAB run nation wide between December 31, 2009 and November 1, 2011 - approximately 20002 races.

Note: there obviously can be more than one qualifier per race but not necessarily any qualifiers per race.

1) Horses that started between 7 days ago and 21 days ago to "today's" race: won 13562 of those races or 68.5% of applicable races

2) Horses that were beaten by less than 3.1 lengths at their last start: won 11593 of those races or 58.9% of applicable races

3) Horses that were in the Top 4 (or equal Top 4) of of the average prizemoney index (career prizemoney / total starts): won 11698 of those races or 58.5% of applicable races

4) Horses that finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th at their last start: won 11629 of those races or 58.8% of applicable races

5) Horses whose last start was within 100 metres of the distance of "today's" race: won 10164 races or 53.1% of applicable races

6) Horses who previously had won or been placed within about 100 metres of "today's" race: won 8614 races or 47.0% of applicable races

7) Horses who previously had won at the course: won 7429 races or 43.5% of applicable races

All of these qualifications above showed about a 20%+ p.o.t. loss at level stakes (win betting) due to the high numbers of qualifiers per race that needed to be invested on.

8) Horses that satisfied rules 1 & 2 above: won 46.6% of 18700 races - win p.o.t. -17.6% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -14.4% at level stakes all qualifiers

9) Horses that satisfied rules 1, 2 & 3 above: won 34.7% of 15971 races - win p.o.t. -16.0% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -11.4% at level stakes all qualifiers

10) Horses that satisfied rules 1, 2, 3 & 4 above: won 33.1% of 15064 races - win p.o.t. -16.1% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -12.0% at level stakes all qualifiers

11) Horses that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4 & 5 above: won 28.3% of 10469 races - win p.o.t. -14.0% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -11.6% at level stakes all qualifiers

12) Horses that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4,5 & 6 above: won 26.3% of 6542 races - win p.o.t. -12.3% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -11.8% at level stakes all qualifiers

13) Horses that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4,5, 6 & 7 above: won 26.7% of 3774 races - win p.o.t. -12.3% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -9.7% at level stakes all qualifiers

14) If you then add in an extra rule: Horses that satisfied rules 1,2,3,4,5, 6 & 7 above AND started at $5.00 or less last start: won 29.0% of 2567 races - win p.o.t. -10.9% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -8.9% at level stakes all qualifiers. Interestingly it made a small profit on boxed trifectas in races where there were sufficient qualifiers.

15) If you change that sp price from $5 to $4 and satisfy all the other rules: won 29.4% of 2218 races - win p.o.t. -9.9% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -8.6% at level stakes all qualifiers. It also made a small profit on boxed trifectas (only 10 over nearly two years!) and quinellas in races where there were sufficient qualifiers it returned 8% p.o.t. on 127 boxed quinellas.

16) If you change that sp price from $4 to $3 and satisfy all the other rules: won 31.1% of 1632 races - win p.o.t. -7.0% at level stakes all qualifiers - place p.o.t. -10.1% at level stakes all qualifiers. It also made losses on boxed trifectas and quinellas. Why? Well at $3 sp last start you are getting in to the realm of last start favourites which are always overbet.

The figures above demonstrate the approach that most punters "adopt" as their form analysis. It shows why betting "with the herd" at level stakes is a recipe for fiscal disaster and why you probably have to adopt another approach to turn the tide in your favour rather than follow "traditional" wisdom. Either that or find the niche within the traditional approach that drops out a lot of the losing races and turns the odds in your favour.

The more sub rules you add in the fewer the number of overall bets which may cause consternation for those that crave that losing "excitement"!! Unless of course you are using it as one of many simultaneously.

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