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Odds On Favourites Betting Pitfalls

So what's the real story of odds on betting on favourites on your friendly TAB? Not good. In fact, not even close to good!

From April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012, (using NSW-TAB figures). there were 1921 races in which the fav was odds-on. The success rate for these odds-on pops was 54.2% as they won 1041 of the 1921 races in which they competed.

Had you invested a tenner on each of them, your outlay was $19220 and return was $17381 or a loss of $1839 or a 9.6% loss on turnover.
(Why $19220 and not $19210? Because in one race during the year there were actually two horses odds on - good grief - what a great state of affairs, eh?)

A lot of the loss has to do with this disgraceful, disgusting and should be illegal rounding down of dividends where, if after the tote grabs its percentage, if the correct exact dividend should be $1.89 it gets rounded down to $1.80.....about an extra 5% grab from the punter AS well as their original take.

This is nothing short of thievery and yet they are allowed to get away with this BS day after day after day. It is stealing money from YOUR pocket every day and none of the people who love to bleat about what's right and wrong in this politically correct world EVER opens their do-nothing political mouths about that. All very well for these political nobodies to pay out on Betfair but that's another story, isn't it?

Incidentally, odds on favs in that period also ran a place 82.3% of the time for a loss on turnover of 3.4% during the 12 months. Bear in mind, this is with a minimum dividend of $1.04 in place and not the disgraceful $1 money back rubbish you may have to endure at some places.

Using the excellent stats analysis side of the Bet Selector programme, there appears to be no real standout "grouping" as far as form elements go that you could use to drop out a substantial slab of these odds on runners to improve the bottom line. Across all break downs they are pretty consistent in the 50+% range and the only anomalies are really just part of the random chance curve.

The bottom line is this ..... if you are betting on an odds on favourite on a TAB that rounds down dividends (like approximately all of them!) are being a FOOL to yourself and your own worst enemy.

The old saying "odds on, look on" has never been truer than what it is today. Walk away from them and don't look back.

Over the long haul, you will be in front if you do. You can of course continue on betting on odds on pops on the tote if you want.........but only if you have a weird thing about giving money away to the bureaucrat class in our community to keep them in the style to which they've become accustomed.

This article is copyright 2012 . All rights reserved. May be copied freely for personal use and yes you can put it up on your web page providing this copyright notice stays in tact




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