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Progression betting on horse racing


In any puzzle, there is always a "cornerstone" piece, upon which the basis of solution is always founded. This is my cornerstone. To understand this cornerstone, please read this other page FIRST

Now that you have done that first, you will understand this page. (Another natural progression!)

The object of having a reliable progression plan is so you can get "them" (Betfair or the TAB) to send you excess capital on a regular basis rather than you having to top the balance up to continue betting on. Having read My Staking Plan you will understand that there are two elements that determine the amount you have to bet on your next selection to continue the progression.

There's the target win amount (column H in my example) which always stays constant at whatever % you have chosen and column I, the carry over amount from any past unsuccessful bets.

In terms of relevance, the carry over losing amount is 99% of the problem. The target amount, assuming you are targeting conservatively, (below 1%), is not the problem.

The basic problem of course is that you will have an inevitable losing sequence, or run of outs, that drains the bank before the equally inevitable winner comes along. This is assuming you have a selection method that is acceptable to you in terms of percentages / possible losing sequences. (More info on this click here or, if you are really serious, here)

The only, no let me re-emphasise that, the ONLY control you have over the carry over losing amount is the level of odds about the previous bets you are prepared to bet down to.

There is a huge difference in the losing carry over amounts in any betting sequence if the minimum odds you are prepared to accept about any bet is $1.50 (2s on) as compared to $2.00 (evens) or, even better, $2.50 (6/4). This is regardless of if you are betting for a win or a place and if you are serious, it shouldn't matter to you which pool you are betting in to PROVIDED you are progressing the bank level on a regular basis and that minimum price level can be achieved.

When Betfair or TAB credit your account, they don't give you anything extra because you were clever enough to snare a long priced winner if you are betting to a target amount strategy...... you get no extra brownie points!!

Incidentally, when we talk about TAB betting, with any target amount strategy, it simply HAS to be at fixed odds. You cannot accurately predict, or importantly trust, the "last minute" fluctuations in the normal TAB pools. Betting in to them is frustrating / anger causing / tension rising and will end in disaster. It has to be fixed odds to work reliably. No alternative. Trying do bet in to a "normal" TAB pool will inevitable lead to a winner being snared, the dividend not matching the expectation, and an unnecessary (shortfall) catch up amount having to be added to the carry over losing amount column.......which of course then reduces the possible run of outs number you can withstand.

Taking less than $2 about any bet (win or place) is a recipe for problems because the carry over losing amounts ramp up beyond belief in as little as 8 losing bets regardless of the modest target % you are chasing. A safer level is $2.50 as an absolute minimum and extends your possible (and probable!) losing steak out to a more feasible level.

As the old sayings go: "odds on- look on" or "don't bet odds on and don't run up stairs". There is massive sense in those statements if you are progression betting. When you stop betting on them at odds on (win or place), you will simply be amazed to observe how many of them get tragically beaten, don't get a clear run in the straight, miss the start, trapped wide, carried off at the turn by another runner, flashed home for fourth, don't handle the track.......(how many more excuses do you want?)

The other "secret" is to regularly withdraw from your bank when you are in profit. There is absolutely no point in being disciplined and focused for weeks and months on end and then have the inevitable losing streak wipe out absolutely everything you have strived to achieve - that's just a waste of time and no one likes to do that.

This article is copyright 2012 . All rights reserved. May be copied freely for personal use and yes you can put it up on your web page providing this copyright notice stays in tact.

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