Progression
betting on horse racing
WARNING: READING THIS MAY LEAD TO A "SWITCH
THE LIGHTS ON" MOMENT. ..........CAUTION ADVISED!
In any puzzle, there
is always a "cornerstone" piece, upon which the basis of
solution is always founded. This is my cornerstone. To understand
this cornerstone, please read this other page FIRST
Now that you have done
that first, you will understand this page. (Another natural progression!)
The object of having
a reliable progression plan is so you can get "them" (Betfair
or the TAB) to send you excess capital on a regular basis rather than
you having to top the balance up to continue betting on. Having read
My Staking Plan you will understand that there are two elements that
determine the amount you have to bet on your next selection to continue
the progression.
There's the target win
amount (column H in my example) which always stays constant at whatever
% you have chosen and column I, the carry over amount from any past
unsuccessful bets.
In terms of relevance,
the carry over losing amount is 99% of the problem.
The target amount, assuming you are targeting conservatively, (below
1%), is not the problem.
The basic problem of
course is that you will have an inevitable losing sequence, or run
of outs, that drains the bank before the equally inevitable winner
comes along. This is assuming you have a selection method that is
acceptable to you in terms of percentages / possible losing sequences.
(More info on this click here
or, if you are really serious, here)
The only, no let me
re-emphasise that, the ONLY
control you have over the carry over losing amount is the level of
odds about the previous bets you are prepared to bet down to.
There is a huge difference
in the losing carry over amounts in any betting sequence if the minimum
odds you are prepared to accept about any bet is $1.50 (2s on) as
compared to $2.00 (evens) or, even better, $2.50 (6/4). This is regardless
of if you are betting for a win or a place and if you are serious,
it shouldn't matter to you which pool you are betting in to PROVIDED
you are progressing the bank level on a regular basis and that minimum
price level can be achieved.
When Betfair or TAB credit
your account, they don't give you anything extra because you were
clever enough to snare a long priced winner if you are betting to
a target amount strategy...... you get no extra brownie points!!
Incidentally, when we
talk about TAB betting, with any target amount strategy, it simply
HAS to be at fixed odds. You cannot accurately predict, or importantly
trust, the "last minute" fluctuations in the normal TAB
pools. Betting in to them is frustrating / anger causing / tension
rising and will end in disaster. It has to be fixed odds to work reliably.
No alternative. Trying do bet in to a "normal" TAB pool
will inevitable lead to a winner being snared, the dividend not matching
the expectation, and an unnecessary (shortfall) catch up amount having
to be added to the carry over losing amount column.......which of
course then reduces the possible run of outs number you can withstand.
Taking less than $2 about
any bet (win or place) is a recipe for problems
because the carry over losing amounts ramp up beyond belief in as
little as 8 losing bets regardless of the modest target % you are
chasing. A safer level is $2.50 as an absolute
minimum and extends your possible (and probable!) losing steak out
to a more feasible level.
As the old sayings go:
"odds on- look on" or "don't bet odds on and don't
run up stairs". There is massive sense in those statements if
you are progression betting. When you stop betting on them at odds
on (win or place), you will simply be amazed to observe how many of
them get tragically beaten, don't get a clear run in the straight,
miss the start, trapped wide, carried off at the turn by another runner,
flashed home for fourth, don't handle the track.......(how many more
excuses do you want?)
The other "secret"
is to regularly withdraw from your bank when you are in profit. There
is absolutely no point in being disciplined and focused for weeks
and months on end and then have the inevitable losing streak wipe
out absolutely everything you have strived to achieve - that's just
a waste of time and no one likes to do that.
This article is copyright
RaceRate.com 2012 . All rights reserved. May be copied freely for
personal use and yes you can put it up on your web page providing
this copyright notice stays in tact.
Horse
racing systems and research
