Here's an interesting letter from an
anonymous person - let's call him Jason - probably because that's
his name. I reproduce it here because I know it is what a ton of folk
think about and worthy of comment. Here is part of his letter (the
omitted bits referred to his methodology)......
I'm new to the racing/punting world,
so forgive me if I sound like a git. :)
Firstly, I wanted to thank you for your website. It's a library of
excellent information, and there's an honesty and transparency about
your writing that's sorely lacking elsewhere!
Just before Christmas I started considering punting for a career.
I've never been a gambler in any form, so this was a bit of a shock!
I started devising my own selection method, which I apply to horses,
trots and greyhounds, seven days a week. I've been working with play-money
only, and compiling the results in Excel.
I'm one of those rare blokes who is very methodical and dispassionate
about punting ... I stick religiously to my rules and don't get carried
away by emotion. I suspect, therefore, that I might be able make a
living, long-term, from this. But I need to learn more ...
Thanks for the
email – you ask a lot of interesting questions so let me start
by writing what someone very smart said to me years and years ago:
"You won’t make money out of gambling UNLESS that is the
way you normally make money".
I know – that takes
a bit of digestion as the implications are enormous :-0)
I stood at the
door you are now contemplating entering in 1969 when Rain Lover won
the Melbourne Cup for the second time and I had coupled it for (a
lot of money at the time) with Daryl’s Joy in a feature double
and won enough to tell the Queensland Public Service I didn’t
need their trifling income ($23 a week) as a junior accounts clerk
as I was now set on a path to fame and fortune. Ummm- wrong! Come
to think about - REALLY wrong ..... and dumb!
You can’t do dogs
and trots and horses all simultaneously. No one individual can. The
hours spread is too great – the knowledge requirements too large
and who the hell wants to do that 24/7 anyway. Sounds exciting but
it’s dead boring.
To get to the
stage where you are making REAL money out of gambling, you first have
to lose a lot – that’s just what the apprenticeship costs.
You will pay this
by chasing a lot of (expensive) ideas down dead ends and have a lot
of ups and downs along the way until you “click” that
what you are doing may not be correct. And the approach to staking
may be wrong. And your target annual win amount in relation to your
punting bank (substantial if you are relying on it to eat and live
and accommodate yourself) may be wrong. And in most cases it will
all be “wrong”.
If you’re smart enough,
you’ll keep going back over your losing bets which you have
boringly recorded - I know everyone, but everyone, says you have to
keep a record – wonder why? – and analyse why they lost
and decide were you just a victim of circumstances (and there are
a genuine myriad of them) or could your methodology possible be (gulp)
And if you are relying
on one methodology that you believe you have “proven”
would you not be wiser to have quite a lot of those up your sleeve
that save you when your one “sure fire plan” has an INEVITABLE
run of outs?
I notice you are
focussed on one idea and approach at the moment to succeed. That may
be the biggest flaw in your approach.
With computer technology
and software that is available these days that can do all the “heavy
lifting” for any ideas you may have that rely on past performances
as a base for going forward, any half way smart computer oriented
person has absolutely no excuse for being reliant on one approach.
This multi-level approach
is obviously one I have come to strongly believe in. You can (and
should) question it and reject it if it does not fit with what YOUR
brain tells you. Your approach will ALWAYS be better than mine because
you have to live with it and operate within its confines.
So before you decide to
take the leap of faith and jump in to the precipice of full time gambling,
STOP and THINK. Most people will flame out in the first six weeks.
BEFORE you jump,
KNOW that you can make from your gambling approach is MORE than your
current employer is willing to pay you when they rent your time......and
that is all they are doing - renting your time and perhaps expertise.
You should have
proven this over AT LEAST a year of trying to do
both. You must also believe that any extra time you put in to your
approach by not having to rent your time out to others will return
the equivalent AT LEAST of what you were being paid.
In most instances
this will not be the case. Let me repeat that in bold so you know
I really mean it: In most instances
this will not be the case.
100% of people are NOT cut out to gamble for a living –
a lot can play with it as a hobby and do quite well from time to time
and even make a modest profit with a carefully thought out approach.
Most just make up the pools.
Now the “lecture”
is over some specifics you asked:
versus Win - I notice that you sometimes bet for a Win, sometimes
for a Place. What decides that for you?
Price alone –
my magic “switch” price is $2.50
Your site has loads of different selection
methods. I suspect that each one has its day: it works for a time,
then stops. Is that true? Or does it go in cycles: will a system swing
upwards again after a downwards swing?
They ALL are cyclic
– that’s just the nature of the beast and, again, why
I don’t rely on one but rather a host of them.
Somewhere on your
site you say "Even when I lose, I'm winning". Can you explain
Because I use
a very modest (around 0.33%) stake recovery staking plan PLUS increasing
target (minimum acceptable $2.50 price) – as outlined on the
site – I am confident I will recover any losing bets before
the INEVITABLE losing streak destroys my bank and, yes, I have more
than ample to cover a series of banks. You simply have to have that
degree of financial “back up”.
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