(On
early punting) “Every
Saturday the wages got a good run up at the East Gosford
TAB where I was from at the time and every weekend
I’d go in there with my fifty dollars or one
hundred dollars that I’d make at McDonalds and
I’d walk out with nothing”
(Selection
criteria) “For example, it’s
pretty well publicised I think that horses tend to
be pretty good bets if they’ve raced within
the last seven days or “on the back up”
as they call it and you look for little theories like
that, trends in betting that help the punter to win
and that’s what I found over a period of time.
There’s lots of those and you look for horses
where the trends combine and those sort of things
that (work) for them together and become winning propositions”.
“…..to
win at the punting or any form of gambling you have
to have an edge that’s better than the next
man and I found very quickly that I wasn’t going
to have that edge watching videos so I went and developed
my own way of winning which is a statistical way of
looking at racing rather than an analytical way of
looking at (race) videos …..”
“In
my mind, with the figures that I’ve come up
with, I would say the four most important statistics
that any one can look at when they’re looking
at a horse race – the jockey, the trainer, the
barrier and the days since the horse had its last
run.”
( on jockey / trainer aspect)
“No, entire career stats aren’t relevant.
The way I look at it is over a five year period putting
a stronger weighting on the more recent performance.
So I go through quite a rigorous process when I am
looking at the jockey or trainer statistics in that
I judge what they’ve done in the last 12 months,
to put a heavier weighting on that than I do in previous
runs or previous statistics that I look at”.
“Exactly
the same method I do for trainers as jockeys”
(more
important than the horses form?) “They
all come out together. Everything is pushed together
with a different rating on different things I look
at there.
The jockey and the trainer weight stronger because
they’re…….. the best final statistics
than any other statistic . I do put a stronger weighting
on that”
“I
have about 35 things that I look
at for each horse in each race that goes around”
“I
don’t come out with a market. That’s another
thing that a lot of people who do the form or look
at horse racing do. They come out with a market …
and they say this horse should be 2/1. I don’t
do that. Again, I don’t think I’m the
best at doing that.
I think that I am the best at saying that if you back
this sort of horse over a period of time you’ll
win 15% on turnover because it rates highly and it’s
statistically the right sort of horse to be backing”
“There
are other market indicators that I look at for the
price of the horse like the totes and what they’re
paying through trifectas and doubles and that sort
of thing and that determines when I bet rather than
what I bet on”.
“There’s
more value in Australian racing than there is in any
other form, any other country’s racing….
Australian punters think differently to the rest of
the punters in the world.
Australian punters, when you look at tote markets,
are more geared to backing outsiders, the general
public, and the professional punters, they are looking
at backing the favourites in Australia. The money
to be made in Australian racing is backing horses
in the market rather than horses out of the market”
“When
you look at a market like the Hong Kong market, horses,
prices are pretty true and real in that the favourite
you’ll find is around its right price and the
100/1 shot is around it’s right price”
“In
Australian racing you’ll find the favourite
is on its price and the 100/1 shot is gross unders
…. the closer to $1.10 the horse is, the closer
it is to its (real) price in Australia”
(On
multiples / trifectas) “I did have
a go at the trifectas and the multiples betting –
umm, I did win at it, but I found it very time consuming.
It took me away from my punting in the betting ring
and on the win totes which was far more profitable…………….”
“I
prefer to back a horse that’s firmed than a
horse that’s blown. When you look at statistics
on that sort of thing horses that have firmed are
much better bets”
“I
look at the on course firmers and the tote firmers
…… (on Betfair / exchanges) I
think when they first came out they were a much better
guide than they are now…..there punters on there
very well informed and it was much more transparent
than what it is now (2008)”
“And
I think that as far as market indicator goes that
there are a lot of people on there who aren’t
winning at the moment and it gives you a false impression
of the horses that are fancied and the horses that
aren’t fancied”
(On
staking) “The way I bet is that
after having looked at all the market indicators and
after looking at what I’ve got a horse rated
at, might be $2.50 or 6/4 and I’ll say to my
people on the track just keep backing it till it comes
down to $2.20, keep taking any price $2.20 and over,
and whatever I get on that horse, I’m not sure
what I’ve got on that horse to be honest until
a race is over a lot of the time”
(On
track bias) “I think track bias
takes care of itself….people get a little too
caught up in track bias…..”
“As
a punter myself I think the larger races (better class)
are the way to go”
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Tasmania, Credit
card debt problems, Staking
plans and systems, Greyhound
racing system, credit
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