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Staking Plan Versus Horse Selection

"At the end of the day the actual horse racing is merely something interesting to watch while you execute your staking plan."

Well there's a statement guaranteed to upset the racing enthusiasts who live for the thrill and spectacle and pageantry and tradition and every other marketing word that goes along with the ads. Oh, and if you live in a regional area of Australia, free pony rides and face painting for the kiddies. Can't forget those! Copy writers in regional areas don't see past that apparently.

Now that Black Caviar has retired, what hook are they going to hang their jackets on now? Oh, right Black Caviar's half brother. Then what? First cousin? First foal. Moment of conception? I never once backed Black Caviar. In the last 21 races in which it competed I never had a bet. So while it was interesting to watch, there were a lot of races that went by in which I had no turnover at all - as would have been the case with many many punters.

Anyone who's been on this site for more than a passing glance, would know that I never bet odds on - ever. Ever!

In successfully gambling on racing, and really it could be gambling on anything, the way you bet is more important than any method you use to arrive at your chosen investment and your time, if you want to be successful in your endeavour, should be split accordingly in the execution of both. You have to understand the "markets", the odds, the mathematics of probability, and the inevitability of losing sequences and how to overcome that nasty side of the equation.

If you don't, you are lost before you begin and should be betting to accommodate those losses because it really will be a one way street and you will merely be one of the players who are there to contribute to the winners' pool. So which staking plan? I can't tell you that because I don't know you. It is most important that you find the staking plan that absolutely suits your own expectation / psychological make up / patience levels that works (no point having one that doesn't is there?) and then, as with your selection methods, be consistent with it.

Don't use one staking method one day and then switch the next. Win and place bets one day, trifectas the next, then a few weeks of trying to pick up a quadrella. That approach is really, really dumb and all but guaranteed to fail for for you in both the short term and long term. So how do you ascertain that your staking plan marries in to your selection method and produces long term profit?

Well here is the BORING truth. You simply must try it out in theory before you attempt to execute it in real life or you will burn your fingers time and time again. There are no short cuts. No fool proof methods in trying to work out which approach suits your personality and time availability. None. And the issue your time availability, that is, the number of hours you have available to you on a consistent basis to execute any long term staking approach, is one that should not be overlooked and considered most carefully because it will play a big part in your success or failure.

The rhythm of it all has to be the same day after day after day for any long term approach to succeed and that's the bit that most people don't pick up on. The selection method, whichever one you choose, has to be the same as the day before and the day before that etc etc and the staking plan has to follow suit. It's that combination of circumstance that (hopefully) puts you in front year in, year out.

It's why bookmakers win. They do the same year in and year out and wait for the punters to make the mistakes and try not to make percentage errors themselves. They devote all their time and energy to doing that and why they mostly succeed. It's also why the world's top rank poker players win as they do because the play the same hour in hour out - day in, day out - the same mathematics of the cards occur in every hand and they understand the odds and only occasionally make a speculative call.

I'm sure you've seen tennis players doing exactly the same thing. They stand back on the base line and wait for the person at the other end of the court to try and force the pace by going for that spectacular winning shot.Who do you think wins in the long term most? And who makes "unexpected exits in the first round?"

Gambling successfully on horse racing is absolutely no different.

© 2013