Plan Versus Horse Selection
"At the end of the
day the actual horse racing is merely something interesting to watch
while you execute your staking plan."
Well there's a statement
guaranteed to upset the racing enthusiasts who live for the thrill
and spectacle and pageantry and tradition and every other marketing
word that goes along with the ads. Oh, and if you live in a regional
area of Australia, free pony rides and face painting for the kiddies.
Can't forget those! Copy writers in regional areas don't see past
Now that Black Caviar has
retired, what hook are they going to hang their jackets on now? Oh,
right Black Caviar's half brother. Then what? First cousin? First
foal. Moment of conception? I never once backed Black Caviar. In the
last 21 races in which it competed I never had a bet. So while it
was interesting to watch, there were a lot of races that went by in
which I had no turnover at all - as would have been the case with
many many punters.
Anyone who's been on this
site for more than a passing glance, would know that I never bet odds
on - ever. Ever!
successfully gambling on racing, and really it could be gambling on
anything, the way you bet is more important than any method you use
to arrive at your chosen investment and your time, if you want to
be successful in your endeavour, should be split accordingly in the
execution of both. You have to understand the "markets",
the odds, the mathematics of probability, and the inevitability of
losing sequences and how to overcome that nasty side of the equation.
If you don't, you are lost
before you begin and should be betting to accommodate those losses
because it really will be a one way street and you will merely be
one of the players who are there to contribute to the winners' pool.
So which staking plan? I can't tell you that because I don't know
you. It is most important that you find the staking plan that absolutely
suits your own expectation / psychological make up / patience levels
that works (no point having one that doesn't is there?) and then,
as with your selection methods, be consistent with it.
Don't use one staking method
one day and then switch the next. Win and place bets one day, trifectas
the next, then a few weeks of trying to pick up a quadrella. That
approach is really, really dumb and all but guaranteed to fail for
for you in both the short term and long term. So how do you ascertain
that your staking plan marries in to your selection method and produces
long term profit?
Well here is the BORING
truth. You simply must try it out in theory before you attempt to
execute it in real life or you will burn your fingers time and time
again. There are no short cuts. No fool proof methods in trying to
work out which approach suits your personality and time availability.
None. And the issue your time availability, that is, the number of
hours you have available to you on a consistent basis to execute any
long term staking approach, is one that should not be overlooked and
considered most carefully because it will play a big part in your
success or failure.
The rhythm of it all has
to be the same day after day after day for any long term approach
to succeed and that's the bit that most people don't pick up on. The
selection method, whichever one you choose, has to be the same as
the day before and the day before that etc etc and the staking plan
has to follow suit. It's that combination of circumstance that (hopefully)
puts you in front year in, year out.
It's why bookmakers win.
They do the same year in and year out and wait for the punters to
make the mistakes and try not to make percentage errors themselves.
They devote all their time and energy to doing that and why they mostly
succeed. It's also why the world's top rank poker players win as they
do because the play the same hour in hour out - day in, day out -
the same mathematics of the cards occur in every hand and they understand
the odds and only occasionally make a speculative call.
I'm sure you've seen tennis
players doing exactly the same thing. They stand back on the base
line and wait for the person at the other end of the court to try
and force the pace by going for that spectacular winning shot.Who
do you think wins in the long term most? And who makes "unexpected
exits in the first round?"
Gambling successfully on
horse racing is absolutely no different.