Horse racing specialisation
One
of the most common errors made by a significant number of punters
is that their belief that they have to have a bet in every race in
every State to make their "system" work. Some think that
by having a large number of bets it "evens out" any statistical
anomaly and results from a smaller "sample" of bets and
restores their system to equilibrium. In most cases, this really is
a euphemism for "impatient".
We
rate horses seven days a week across all States of Australia but we
DON'T venture down to the lower classes of races. Because of the slightly
different class approaches that have been adopted by different State
bodies (reminiscent of the different rail gauges at the turn of
the 20th century for heavens sake) we pay particular care to
this aspect of what we do.
For
instance we rarely look at races below "72 class" in Victoria
and for New South Wales we don't venture south of Rating 70 races
very often or Rating 65 at the provincials. It's this level of class
OF RACE that pulls us up in all other States as well.
We
don't look at races restricted to two year olds or three year olds
and are reluctant to look at races for fillies and mares.
In
a perfect world, you Would concentrate on just one State. Most will
pick their HOME State for obvious reasons. But is that the best move?
If you live in NSW or Victoria, it means a 7 day a week commitment,
4 to 5 days a week in SA, 5 to 6 days a week in Queensland, 4 to 5
days a week in WA and 1 sometimes 2 days a week in Tasmania.
Would
you not be better off concentrating your effort on the smaller more
insulated States where the number of trainers (successful) is less
as is The case with the jockeys and where the number of "outside"
influences is reduced?
Every
day the average punter is assailed with reams and reams of information
that you can't possibly absorb or make sense of if you are trying
to have 24 or 32 or 40 bets a day. If you try to do this you, become
grist for the mill - a net contributor to the TAB or Betfair pool
rather than someone who can profit from it and I guarantee that must
be the outcome - note we say guarantee not chance.
By specialising in just one State and limiting the number of race
classes you are prepared to undertake any form of assessment in, gives
you your best chance of success. Note we say say chance - not guarantee!
Here
are set of "specialising rules" that may assist in your
quest to make money from racing:
1.
Know ONE State's tracks intimately. Know if they favour front runners
or 'swoopers'
2.
Know who is training in your chosen State and observe their "modus
operandi"
3.
Know the jockeys and be aware of their limitations ( yes, we ALL
do have limitations)
4.
Have the best form guide available for your State's racing as your
basic tool.
5.
Go to your local track / tracks as often as possible to learn all
you can about them - the stuff you don't see on TV.
6.
Limit your bets to four or five for most meetings (depending on the
overall class of the meeting)
7.
Know which type of bet you are most comfortable with and your "comfort
level" of investment. This rule is MOST important.
8.
Set a realistic rate of return.
We
use the word know a few times in the above rules and we really
mean it. You have to really know this stuff to profit from
it. To be very confusing, you really will know when you DO know it
and the results will show
