Horse Racing Gambling Theory
I have been meaning to write
about this for a while but, as with a lot of things, time always seems
to get in the way (or lack of it) and I realise it will probably draw
criticism but, hey, that's life.
A lot of punters run a "stop
loss" mechanism on any staking plan they are running. This may
be as simple as halving your bets after 8 consecutive losses or whatever
and then run at that level for "x" number of bets until
the bank recovers or drops further and then their next rule comes
in to play.
I think this is the wrong
approach. Absolutely 100% wrong.
Why? Every time I've seen
this approach attempted it seems to come unstuck at the pointy end
of the crisis marker. Inevitably, well it seems to me from what I've
seen, whenever the stakes are halved from the "norm", a
winner, generally at 10s or 12s salutes a couple of races later and
what would then be a winning bank is found to still be still wanting
and languishing in the red. Frustration then sets in and we then tend
to throw the baby out with the bath water. And so it goes.
I just cannot come to grips
with any level staking or progressive staking plan that suddenly decides
at some arbitrary point to halve or quarter bets. It simply doesn't
make sense. Hey, if the plan is going to succeed at level stakes over
the long term, why would you want to limit its upside potential?
If it is going to succeed
on a progressive loss chasing basis, why give up that perceived advantage
because of a losing streak? And if losing streaks are making you edgy
and nervous, why are you running a progressive staking approach in
the first place?
Stop losses sound fine in
theory - the reality is that you are betting expecting to find yourself
in a losing situation. Why? Aren't you betting expecting to win? I
don't bet to lose. I bet with the expectation of finishing in front
in the long term fully accepting that, yes, there will be losing periods
but after a year I am going to be in front.
If you aren't betting with
that winning expectation, for God's sake stop. Take up lawn bowls
and meat tray raffle ticket buying, or anything else because if you
don't have confidence in that winning expectation I GUARANTEE you
will lose. Regardless!
Stop loss gambling is for
pessimists and pessimists don't end up winning. Pessimists merely
give themselves stress (and others around them) and should be avoided
at all costs.
"They" (the experts)
run the line: "you won't always hit a winner but with the
correct stop loss protection you will have another chance back another
good priced winner".
Absolute rubbish. There
is no more likelihood of hitting a good priced winner down the road
simply because you have had a long run of outs to date. This is demonstrably
a flawed approach. Oh, in my opinion - to add the politically correct
As frail weak humans, one
of our greatest emotions that has a huge impact on our gambling is
FEAR. The fear of loss, fear of being incorrect or fear of losing
money. If you are in the uncontrollable mode of fear, stop gambling.
You can't win without controlling this factor.
Instead of "fiddling
around" at the edges with a stop loss approach to your punting
bank, wouldn't you rather know for sure that the selection/staking
approach is wrong and you can stop wasting your time on it?
So lose your punting bank
and move on. Next! This is provided of course you are not punting
with "essentials" money and is money you can comfortably
afford to lose. If it's not, why are you punting with "essentials
When Rafael Nadal hits a
tennis ball there's a good chance the ball won't go over the net,
will go long or wide. So what does he do faced with these possibilities?
Stop serving the ball? Of course not. He continues on exactly the
same as he has trained all his life confident that in the long term
he'll hit more balls over the net in the correct place to finish up
There are just two possibilities
when you bet on a horse or greyhound of footy game or whatever. You
either win or lose. With our inbuilt fight or flight mechanism, it
is really easy for fear to kick in - it happens to all of us. Sticking
to your approach will remove the fear and opportunity of missing out
on a good return.
Remember, you're the only
one in control of your betting - no one else. Not any of the experts.
No one is going to make you bet on anything and no one else is going
to make a decision for you.
Always have a positive attitude
when you gamble, and don't expect every bet to go in the direction
you want it to. Just accept the outcome of every bet and stick to
your initial plan.
Play to win. Expect results.
Don't run around like a chook with its head cut off after a series
of outs. If your staking plan and approach was correct in the first
place, you must end up in front in the long term.
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