Stop Loss Horse Racing Gambling Theory

I have been meaning to write about this for a while but, as with a lot of things, time always seems to get in the way (or lack of it) and I realise it will probably draw criticism but, hey, that's life.

A lot of punters run a "stop loss" mechanism on any staking plan they are running. This may be as simple as halving your bets after 8 consecutive losses or whatever and then run at that level for "x" number of bets until the bank recovers or drops further and then their next rule comes in to play.

I think this is the wrong approach. Absolutely 100% wrong.

Why? Every time I've seen this approach attempted it seems to come unstuck at the pointy end of the crisis marker. Inevitably, well it seems to me from what I've seen, whenever the stakes are halved from the "norm", a winner, generally at 10s or 12s salutes a couple of races later and what would then be a winning bank is found to still be still wanting and languishing in the red. Frustration then sets in and we then tend to throw the baby out with the bath water. And so it goes.

I just cannot come to grips with any level staking or progressive staking plan that suddenly decides at some arbitrary point to halve or quarter bets. It simply doesn't make sense. Hey, if the plan is going to succeed at level stakes over the long term, why would you want to limit its upside potential?

If it is going to succeed on a progressive loss chasing basis, why give up that perceived advantage because of a losing streak? And if losing streaks are making you edgy and nervous, why are you running a progressive staking approach in the first place?

Stop losses sound fine in theory - the reality is that you are betting expecting to find yourself in a losing situation. Why? Aren't you betting expecting to win? I don't bet to lose. I bet with the expectation of finishing in front in the long term fully accepting that, yes, there will be losing periods but after a year I am going to be in front.

If you aren't betting with that winning expectation, for God's sake stop. Take up lawn bowls and meat tray raffle ticket buying, or anything else because if you don't have confidence in that winning expectation I GUARANTEE you will lose. Regardless!

Stop loss gambling is for pessimists and pessimists don't end up winning. Pessimists merely give themselves stress (and others around them) and should be avoided at all costs.

"They" (the experts) run the line: "you won't always hit a winner but with the correct stop loss protection you will have another chance back another good priced winner".

Absolute rubbish. There is no more likelihood of hitting a good priced winner down the road simply because you have had a long run of outs to date. This is demonstrably a flawed approach. Oh, in my opinion - to add the politically correct rider.

As frail weak humans, one of our greatest emotions that has a huge impact on our gambling is FEAR. The fear of loss, fear of being incorrect or fear of losing money. If you are in the uncontrollable mode of fear, stop gambling. You can't win without controlling this factor.

Instead of "fiddling around" at the edges with a stop loss approach to your punting bank, wouldn't you rather know for sure that the selection/staking approach is wrong and you can stop wasting your time on it?

So lose your punting bank and move on. Next! This is provided of course you are not punting with "essentials" money and is money you can comfortably afford to lose. If it's not, why are you punting with "essentials money"?

When Rafael Nadal hits a tennis ball there's a good chance the ball won't go over the net, will go long or wide. So what does he do faced with these possibilities? Stop serving the ball? Of course not. He continues on exactly the same as he has trained all his life confident that in the long term he'll hit more balls over the net in the correct place to finish up in front.

There are just two possibilities when you bet on a horse or greyhound of footy game or whatever. You either win or lose. With our inbuilt fight or flight mechanism, it is really easy for fear to kick in - it happens to all of us. Sticking to your approach will remove the fear and opportunity of missing out on a good return.

Remember, you're the only one in control of your betting - no one else. Not any of the experts. No one is going to make you bet on anything and no one else is going to make a decision for you.

Always have a positive attitude when you gamble, and don't expect every bet to go in the direction you want it to. Just accept the outcome of every bet and stick to your initial plan.

Play to win. Expect results. Don't run around like a chook with its head cut off after a series of outs. If your staking plan and approach was correct in the first place, you must end up in front in the long term.

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