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Thought Starter June 2013

On the Racerate.com website we have had a free system online for some time called Kilo Killers with some very limited test results which we never had the hours to check.
I cannot remember from whence it came but thought we would do a test on it to see where it stood in the way of results as more time has gone by.

The basic rules were:

Ignore any maiden or two year old race
Selection is the horse with the best win strike rate in the race
Eliminate any horse whose last start was not within 200 metres of today’s race distance
Eliminate any horse that has not started in the last ten days
To be a final contender the horse must be carrying more weight today than last start

We altered this to read as follows: (altered rules indicated by **)

Any horse must have won at least 1 race and every runner in c must have had at least one start **
Selection is the horse with the best win strike rate in the race
Eliminate any horse whose last start was not within 200 metres of today’s race distance
Eliminate any horse that has not started in the last 10 days
To be a final contender the horse must be carrying more weight today than last start

We then tested this for 12 months from June 3, 2012 to June 3, 2013. The results were:

Races considered as qualifying: 530
No. of horses qualifying: 530
Races won by selection: 109 (20.6%)
Return at level stakes: 497.10 (NSW TAB)
Loss on turnover: -6.2%
The average dividend was $4.56.

Obviously a loss on turnover of 6.2% is less than satisfactory so we spent a day or so fiddling around with the qualifying rules and, in fact, increased them markedly. Now before everyone starts saying, oh, too many rules, the answer is yes, you get no output from no input and if you think you do, consult your nearest psychiatrist.

The final rules become:

Operate on races between 970 and 2200 metres, with prize money between 8k and 50k, anywhere EXCEPT Adelaide, and never on a Friday.
The field size must be no more than 14 starters (after scratchings)
Any contender must have finished in the first 5 at its last start, been beaten no more than 8.9 lengths at its last start, and its last start race must not have been valued at more than 10k LESS than today’s.
Any final selection must be TAB # 1 through 11, and be starting from barrier 1 through 10 inclusive and NOT carrying more than 61kg
Any horse must have won at least won race (but no more than 8) and every runner in considered races must have had at least one start **
Selection is the horse with the best win strike rate in the race but it must also be in the top 5 percentages by average prize money
Any final selection must not be older than 6 and have a career win strike rate of at least 13% and a career place strike rate of at least 33%
Eliminate any horse whose last start was not within 200 metres of today’s race distance
Eliminate any horse that has not started in the last 10 days
To be a final contender the horse must NOT be carrying more weight today than last start and not dropping by than 5.5kgs from its last start weight.

So what is the outcome of these rule changes from the basic idea we started with?

Races considered as qualifying: 191
No. of horses qualifying: 191
Races won by selection: 74 (38.7%)
Return at level stakes: 65.30 (NSW TAB)
PROFIT on turnover: 34.2%
The average dividend was $3.46.

Now those figures are level stakes on the NSW TAB. If you have the time to play on Betfair you would undoubtedly do much better.

A full workout of this method is also on the RaceRate web site at: http://www.racerate.com/kk.htm

All methods tried for a place showed a loss. There were some lengthy “runs of outs” that you should be aware of if you are impatient.

NOTE: Just because this has shown a profit in the last 12 months (more in the first 6 months compared to the last six months) IT DOES NOT mean it will continue to do so. This is the case with all methods based on historical results and implemented “forward”. It may do, It may well not. In other words, TRAVEL AT YOUR OWN RISK

 

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