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On the Saturday just gone, May 21, what if you'd backed the card at Doomben? Well, it wasn't out of the realms of possibility. Just not very likely that you would.

Lets look at the winners:

Varenna Miss 2.00   Firebolt 3.70   Free Wheeling 11.10   Scarlett Lady 3.60   Kanzan 6.20   Woorim 7.60   Scenic Shot 6.60   Falino 9.30

So, yes, not likely you'd have backed all 8 but it could have been done.....once in a blue moon! The question is though, how much could you have also realistically collected if you are an average punter? If you have $10 on each your return is $501 - not bad for an afternoon's work. Invest 80 - get back 501 - a p.o.t. (profit on turnover) of 526%

What if, instead, you'd taken seven $10 running doubles? Well, now we're talking! The doubles paid 9.90, 49.10, 83.20, 20.40, 61.50, 71.80 and 107.60. Wow. $4035 back for a $70 investment or a p.o.t. of 5664% A day you'd never forget - and be boring your friends witless for the next few years talking about it.

What if - don't you just love the what if game? What if instead of all of the above, you'd taken 7 race to race all ups? The first returns 74, the second returns 410.70, the third 399.60, the fourth 223.20, the fifth 471.20, the sixth 501.60 and the seventh 613.80. So it;s the same investment, the same phenomenal run of winners and the return is $2694.10 - or about a third less than just taking doubles for the same $70 investment.

Well that's pretty a decisive result. With the benefit of hindsight there is absolutely no competition is there? But what if - oh no, another what if - what if you'd only backed four of the eight winners? A more likely result you say?

Let's say they were races one and two because they were pretty easy and races 6 and 7 later in the day.

Okay - a tenner on each of them - invest 80 get back $199. (148.75% p.o.t.)
Seven running doubles, two collects, invest 70 get back $817 (1067% p.o.t.)
Or the seven all ups, again invest 70 and the return? $575.60. (722% p.o.t.)

Goodness, well there's some food for thought. What then if you took it even one step further and coupled all of your selections in all ups and those same four horses won? In other words your investment pattern looked like this:

R1 into 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 - 7 all ups 3 wins 74, 152, 132
R2 into 3,4,5,6,7,8 - 6 all ups 2 wins 281.20, 244.20
R3 into 4,5,6,7,8 - 5 all ups
R4 into 5,6,7,8 - 4 all ups
R5 into 6,7,8 - 3 all ups
R6 into 7,8 - 2 all ups 1 win 501.60
R7 into 8 - 1 all up

Total invest: 280 Total Return: 1385.00 (394% p.o.t.)

A little food for thought?

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