Basic
Handicapping For Horse Racing
Fitness
Before a horse can be considered, it should be determined
that he's physically fit enough to be at or near his best.
Athletes become fit via two avenues, competition and training.
Horses are exactly the same. A HUGE proportion of races
are won by horses that have started twice in the previous
45 days.
Class
Class in thoroughbred racing can be defined by saying
that class is the quality of competition a horse can compete
favorably against. Look at the prior conditions under
which the horse has raced. Regardless of any other variable,
a horse cannot be expected to win without having
shown a past ability to do so against similar competition.
If the horse has not shown the past ability, he can be
considered a throw-out, unless he's rapidly improving
and won his last race with enough authority to move up
in class against tougher competition. If he's fit and
can compete against the competition, move to the next
variable.
Distance
Through either breeding, conformation, running style,
or training techniques, horses generally do better at
certain distances. Few are versatile enough to handle
short and long races effectively. Examine all races listed
to determine if the horse has done well at the distance
of today's race. If it's a proven competitor at today's
distance, continue to consider, and eliminate if it's
had numerous opportunities without success. It may very
well show a potential to handle the distance, but can't
be overly well regarded without proof. Remember, never
expect a horse to do something he's never done before.
It is often a wise move to eliminate any horse competing
at a distance that is shorter than any previous winning
effort. Longer distances do not seem to pose the same
hurdle (pardon the pun!)
Barrier
Position
The barrier position draw, a random drawing done after
entries for a race are taken, can often turn a potential
winner into a dead loser, and vice-versa! Track biases
exist at many tracks, favoring inside or outside post
positions. As a general rule, far outside posts in bulky
fields in sprints (14 or more) can prove more challenging.
The two inside barriers in big fields can also be detrimental.
Early speed is preferable for both inside and outside
barriers because without it, outside horses lose ground
and inside ones get trapped. A horse's running style and
the barrier position are directly correlated. In longer,
two-turn-races, inside barriers are almost always preferred.
The shorter the two-turn race, the more it favors inside.
If it can be determined that the barrier will not be a
detriment, move on. But a horse can generally be thrown
out if it is determined his chances will be badly compromised
by its barrier position.
Running
Style
Horses generally settle into a certain style of running,
broken down into three categories: front runner, horses
who run in the lead or who are never further back than
two lengths; the stalker, horses who are never further
back from the lead than 4 lengths; and the fast finisher,
horses who are never closer than five lengths from the
pace. Horses have been known to change styles, but the
vast majority have consistent styles. True front runners
always try for the lead when possible. Front runners are
most effective when unchallenged early. The easier they
are able to get a clear lead, the better the chances.
Prefer front runners when there are few, if any, potential
challengers or if a pronounced track bias favoring early
speed exists.
A
stalker rarely makes the lead, and seldom possesses a
big late kick. They have the speed to stay close and pass
tiring front runners, and can hold off the big finishers
that lag well behind. Prefer stalkers when numerous front
runners are present, and without the presence of a fast
finisher.
Fast
finishers are at their best when an abundance of early
speed exists and are often victimised when a front runner
is loose in the lead. Betting on fast finishers is more
precarious than horses with speed as they can run into
traffic problems. And, statistics show that horses closer
to the lead win the majority of races. However, under
certain circumstances, fast finishers are a very positive
choice.
Trainer
Give careful consideration to the trainer, who is like
the coach. Everyone knows that some coaches are superior
to others and there can be a large discrepancy between
the best and the worst. Trainers have a big job and must
have a wealth of knowledge about a large number of facets
of training a horse to race. They must not only be good
horsemen, they must have excellent organisational skills
in order to coordinate the efforts of an entire stable.
Statistics point out the top trainers at the track and
a handicapper that pays attention to the trainers of every
horse in every race will soon have a good working knowledge
of which ones are acceptable when making a final decision.
If the trainer meets the handicapper's standards, he can
move on to the next variable. But an elimination can be
made if you feel the competence of the conditioner is
in question.
Jockey
The role of the jockey is often understated. Checking
out statistics at most tracks, a small percentage of riders
win the great majority of the races. It takes a great
deal of skill to ride a horse in a race. To suggest that
all riders are equally proficient is ludicrous. Jockeys
must possess good riding techniques, have strength, intelligence,
good judgment and timing and have an ability to communicate
with the horse. Some jockeys are far more proficient than
others, and by perusing the statistics or by simply watching
them day in and day out, one can learn which are the most
reliable. When making a final decision, be sure the horse
you select has an acceptable rider. When eliminating horses
in fields with numerous contenders, you may be able to
eliminate a horse because of the rider alone.
Present
Form
When making a final selection it's important to determine
that the horse is in good present form. Examining the
finishes of his most recent races tells you if he's racing
well and competitively. Statistics prove that horses that
have recently won or have been reasonably close, win the
majority of races. Very rarely do horses that were beaten
by 6 lengths or more at their previous start win - unless
they are dropping in class from the last race to the present
one. Most horses have form cycles in that they run well
for a period of time, then tail off. When making a final
decision, it's a wise move to bet on horses with good
present form and eliminate those that are obviously out
of form.
Consistency
Before considering a horse a top contender, examine his
record for the year and his lifetime record. These figures
are expressed in win% and place% terms in most form guides.
A handicapper should look for horses that are more likely
to run well than not. If they have finished in the money
50% of the time, they can be deemed consistent. Many horses
with poor consistency records cannot be heavily relied
upon to run well after a good effort the time before.
So, despite a good recent race, they have shown a past
tendency not to repeat strong performances. A horse coming
off a good race returning in a similar situation is hard
to disregard. But if it's shown a lack of past consistency,
its lack of reliability would make it difficult to have
a serious bet. A handicapper should demand consistency
before making a horse a serious contender.
Weight
Some handicappers use the weight carried by a horse as
a critical factor. This is a controversial variable among
astute handicappers. A truism is that weight will stop
a train. However, determining how a few kilos, more or
less, will affect a horse's performance isn't easy to
assess. Race horses can weigh well over 500 kilos. So
humans, who generally weigh about 80% less, would find
it hard to understand how a few kilos affects a horse
in comparison to a much less sturdy and strong human.
Proportionately speaking, one could assume that 5 kilos
to a human, which is significant, may feel like only 1
kilo to a horse. Obviously, a kilo is hardly enough to
slow him down much.
If
you decide to use weight as a handicapping variable, it
would seem wise to consider it more important as the length
of the race increases. It may also be prudent not to consider
weight a factor unless it involves at least a difference
of 2 kilos or more.You may also want to use weight if
comparing horses in the same race if there is a significant
switch in weights, like one horse taking off 2 kilos coming
out of a race against a rival who may be carrying 2 kilos
more. Generally, weight may play a lesser role than many
have believed and without knowing each horse's capacity
to carry weight, it may be impossible to use effectively.
Nonetheless, for those who have found success using this
variable, it may have a place in making a final decision.
Speed
Figures
Various speed figures have been compiled in recent years
but are not popular in Australia. This in itself may be
a reason to use them as you are then not "betting
with the mob" and will probably get better value
per selection. The only way we have seen these to be effective
is by assigning a par value time for every track in the
country for every distance in every track condition and
then rate each run as par time = 100 and then + or - 1
point for each tenth of a second over or under the par
time for that track and distance and condition. Very time
consuming. You may choose to use this approach. The great
difficulty comes in assessing each race based on how fast
the pace of the race was to allow the time to be recorded.The
number certainly reduces a horse's past performance to
just digits and can be used to quickly identify the contenders.
However, as speed figure producers suggest, the handicapper
is implored to use other handicapping techniques to be
used in conjunction with the number.
The
numbers, if used, should be used more as a guide. Although
at times, a horse with an apparently large advantage may
be a bet on the numbers alone. But, obviously no guarantee
exists. Generally speaking, use speed figures as one of
the many available handicapping tools.
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