BASIC
HANDICAPPING
Fitness
Before a horse can be considered, it should be determined
that he's physically fit enough to be at or near his best.
Athletes become fit via two avenues, competition and training.
Horses are exactly the same. A HUGE proportion of races
are won by horses that have started twice in the previous
45 days.
Class
Class in thoroughbred racing can be defined by saying that
class is the quality of competition a horse can compete
favorably against. Look at the prior conditions under which
the horse has raced. Regardless of any other variable, a
horse cannot be expected to win without having shown
a past ability to do so against similar competition. If
the horse has not shown the past ability, he can be considered
a throw-out, unless he's rapidly improving and won his last
race with enough authority to move up in class against tougher
competition. If he's fit and can compete against the competition,
move to the next variable.
Distance
Through either breeding, conformation, running style, or
training techniques, horses generally do better at certain
distances. Few are versatile enough to handle short and
long races effectively. Examine all races listed to determine
if the horse has done well at the distance of today's race.
If it's a proven competitor at today's distance, continue
to consider, and eliminate if it's had numerous opportunities
without success. It may very well show a potential to handle
the distance, but can't be overly well regarded without
proof. Remember, never expect a horse to do something
he's never done before. It is often a wise move to eliminate
any horse competing at a distance that is shorter than any
previous winning effort. Longer distances do not seem to
pose the same hurdle (pardon the pun!)
Barrier
Position
The barrier position draw, a random drawing done after entries
for a race are taken, can often turn a potential winner
into a dead loser, and vice-versa! Track biases exist at
many tracks, favoring inside or outside post positions.
As a general rule, far outside posts in bulky fields in
sprints (14 or more) can prove more challenging. The two
inside barriers in big fields can also be detrimental. Early
speed is preferable for both inside and outside barriers
because without it, outside horses lose ground and inside
ones get trapped. A horse's running style and the barrier
position are directly correlated. In longer, two-turn-races,
inside barriers are almost always preferred. The shorter
the two-turn race, the more it favors inside. If it can
be determined that the barrier will not be a detriment,
move on. But a horse can generally be thrown out if it is
determined his chances will be badly compromised by its
barrier position.
Running
Style
Horses generally settle into a certain style of running,
broken down into three categories: front runner, horses
who run in the lead or who are never further back than two
lengths; the stalker, horses who are never further back
from the lead than 4 lengths; and the fast finisher, horses
who are never closer than five lengths from the pace. Horses
have been known to change styles, but the vast majority
have consistent styles. True front runners always try for
the lead when possible. Front runners are most effective
when unchallenged early. The easier they are able to get
a clear lead, the better the chances. Prefer front runners
when there are few, if any, potential challengers or if
a pronounced track bias favoring early speed exists.
A
stalker rarely makes the lead, and seldom possesses a big
late kick. They have the speed to stay close and pass tiring
front runners, and can hold off the big finishers that lag
well behind. Prefer stalkers when numerous front runners
are present, and without the presence of a fast finisher.
Fast
finishers are at their best when an abundance of early speed
exists and are often victimised when a front runner is loose
in the lead. Betting on fast finishers is more precarious
than horses with speed as they can run into traffic problems.
And, statistics show that horses closer to the lead win
the majority of races. However, under certain circumstances,
fast finishers are a very positive choice.
Trainer
Give careful consideration to the trainer, who is like the
coach. Everyone knows that some coaches are superior to
others and there can be a large discrepancy between the
best and the worst. Trainers have a big job and must have
a wealth of knowledge about a large number of facets of
training a horse to race. They must not only be good horsemen,
they must have excellent organisational skills in order
to coordinate the efforts of an entire stable. Statistics
point out the top trainers at the track and a handicapper
that pays attention to the trainers of every horse in every
race will soon have a good working knowledge of which ones
are acceptable when making a final decision. If the trainer
meets the handicapper's standards, he can move on to the
next variable. But an elimination can be made if you feel
the competence of the conditioner is in question.
Jockey
The role of the jockey is often understated. Checking out
statistics at most tracks, a small percentage of riders
win the great majority of the races. It takes a great deal
of skill to ride a horse in a race. To suggest that all
riders are equally proficient is ludicrous. Jockeys must
possess good riding techniques, have strength, intelligence,
good judgment and timing and have an ability to communicate
with the horse. Some jockeys are far more proficient than
others, and by perusing the statistics or by simply watching
them day in and day out, one can learn which are the most
reliable. When making a final decision, be sure the horse
you select has an acceptable rider. When eliminating horses
in fields with numerous contenders, you may be able to eliminate
a horse because of the rider alone.
Present
Form
When making a final selection it's important to determine
that the horse is in good present form. Examining the finishes
of his most recent races tells you if he's racing well and
competitively. Statistics prove that horses that have recently
won or have been reasonably close, win the majority of races.
Very rarely do horses that were beaten by 6 lengths or more
at their previous start win - unless they are dropping in
class from the last race to the present one. Most horses
have form cycles in that they run well for a period of time,
then tail off. When making a final decision, it's a wise
move to bet on horses with good present form and eliminate
those that are obviously out of form.
Consistency
Before considering a horse a top contender, examine his
record for the year and his lifetime record. These figures
are expressed in win% and place% terms in most form guides.
A handicapper should look for horses that are more likely
to run well than not. If they have finished in the money
50% of the time, they can be deemed consistent. Many horses
with poor consistency records cannot be heavily relied upon
to run well after a good effort the time before. So, despite
a good recent race, they have shown a past tendency not
to repeat strong performances. A horse coming off a good
race returning in a similar situation is hard to disregard.
But if it's shown a lack of past consistency, its lack of
reliability would make it difficult to have a serious bet.
A handicapper should demand consistency before making a
horse a serious contender.
Weight
Some handicappers use the weight carried by a horse as a
critical factor. This is a controversial variable among
astute handicappers. A truism is that weight will stop a
train. However, determining how a few kilos, more or less,
will affect a horse's performance isn't easy to assess.
Race horses can weigh well over 500 kilos. So humans, who
generally weigh about 80% less, would find it hard to understand
how a few kilos affects a horse in comparison to a much
less sturdy and strong human. Proportionately speaking,
one could assume that 5 kilos to a human, which is significant,
may feel like only 1 kilo to a horse. Obviously, a kilo
is hardly enough to slow him down much.
If
you decide to use weight as a handicapping variable, it
would seem wise to consider it more important as the length
of the race increases. It may also be prudent not to consider
weight a factor unless it involves at least a difference
of 2 kilos or more.You may also want to use weight if comparing
horses in the same race if there is a significant switch
in weights, like one horse taking off 2 kilos coming out
of a race against a rival who may be carrying 2 kilos more.
Generally, weight may play a lesser role than many have
believed and without knowing each horse's capacity to carry
weight, it may be impossible to use effectively. Nonetheless,
for those who have found success using this variable, it
may have a place in making a final decision.
Speed
Figures
Various speed figures have been compiled in recent years
but are not popular in Australia. This in itself may be
a reason to use them as you are then not "betting with
the mob" and will probably get better value per selection.
The only way we have seen these to be effective is by assigning
a par value time for every track in the country for every
distance in every track condition and then rate each run
as par time = 100 and then + or - 1 point for each tenth
of a second over or under the par time for that track and
distance and condition. Very time consuming. You may choose
to use this approach. The great difficulty comes in assessing
each race based on how fast the pace of the race was to
allow the time to be recorded.The number certainly reduces
a horse's past performance to just digits and can be used
to quickly identify the contenders. However, as speed figure
producers suggest, the handicapper is implored to use other
handicapping techniques to be used in conjunction with the
number.
The
numbers, if used, should be used more as a guide. Although
at times, a horse with an apparently large advantage may
be a bet on the numbers alone. But, obviously no guarantee
exists. Generally speaking, use speed figures as one of
the many available handicapping tools.
