Assessing
Horse Racing Markets
Most people can
pick winners. Gee - just go with favourite and about 31
- 32 % of the time you'll be right.
The trouble with
that is the 68 to 69% of the time you'll be wrong and
betting on favourites at cramped odds $2 to $3.00 means
that mathematically you must lose. Almost like playing
the poker machines that have fixed odd losing. They of
course claim they mere have fixed percentage payouts but,
believe me, it is fixed odds losing and lose you must.
The conundrum
is then to back horses that, while they may be favourite,
they are still value odds. Please don't confuse value
odds with the Sky Channel presenters who insist on saying
really stupid things like, when a $30 pop wins, breathlessly
chant "well, there's a value winner!". Rubbish.
It isn't a value winner unless you have assessed it to
be a real $7 chance, or the like.
So how do you
effectively rate your chances to prices if you have laboriously
done your best to rate the chances? (Gosh (shameless plug!)
you may even be using our SelfRate programme. It doesn't
matter of you are using your own ratings - the principle
is the same. it is an easy matter
to multiply or divide the "runner points" and
"total race points" to suit your ratings
method.True "value"
and "overs" only occurs when the odds on offer
exceed what you estimate them to be.
Here's a table:
| |
TOTAL
RACE POINTS (Total of all runners' points added
together) |
Runner
Points |
40 |
45 |
50 |
55 |
60 |
65 |
70 |
75 |
80 |
85 |
90 |
95 |
100 |
105 |
110 |
20 |
$2.00 |
$2.30 |
$2.50 |
$2.70 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.50 |
$3.80 |
$4.00 |
$4.30 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$5.50 |
16 |
$2.50 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.50 |
$3.70 |
$4.50 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.00 |
14 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.80 |
$4.00 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
12 |
$3.50 |
$3.80 |
$4.30 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
10 |
$4.00 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$11.00 |
8 |
$5.00 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
6 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.50 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$16.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
5 |
$8.00 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$16.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
4 |
$10.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
3 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$34.00 |
$34.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
2 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$34.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$61.00 |
$61.00 |
| |
Consistency with the application
of these "overs" is the second key to success.
You then need to consider staking options - but that's
another story!
