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Assessing Horse Racing Markets

Most people can pick winners. Gee - just go with favourite and about 31 - 32 % of the time you'll be right.

The trouble with that is the 68 to 69% of the time you'll be wrong and betting on favourites at cramped odds $2 to $3.00 means that mathematically you must lose. Almost like playing the poker machines that have fixed odd losing. They of course claim they mere have fixed percentage payouts but, believe me, it is fixed odds losing and lose you must.

The conundrum is then to back horses that, while they may be favourite, they are still value odds. Please don't confuse value odds with the Sky Channel presenters who insist on saying really stupid things like, when a $30 pop wins, breathlessly chant "well, there's a value winner!". Rubbish. It isn't a value winner unless you have assessed it to be a real $7 chance, or the like.

So how do you effectively rate your chances to prices if you have laboriously done your best to rate the chances? (Gosh (shameless plug!) you may even be using our SelfRate programme. It doesn't matter of you are using your own ratings - the principle is the same. it is an easy matter to multiply or divide the "runner points" and "total race points" to suit your ratings method.True "value" and "overs" only occurs when the odds on offer exceed what you estimate them to be.

Here's a table:

 
TOTAL RACE POINTS (Total of all runners' points added together)
Runner
Points
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
20
$2.00
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$3.00
$3.30
$3.50
$3.80
$4.00
$4.30
$4.50
$5.00
$5.00
$5.50
$5.50
16
$2.50
$3.00
$3.30
$3.50
$3.70
$4.50
$4.50
$5.00
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.00
14
$3.00
$3.30
$3.80
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$7.50
$8.00
12
$3.50
$3.80
$4.30
$5.00
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
$9.00
$10.00
10
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
$9.00
$10.00
$10.00
$11.00
$11.00
8
$5.00
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.50
$9.00
$10.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$12.00
$13.00
$15.00
$15.00
6
$7.00
$7.50
$8.50
$10.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$13.00
$15.00
$15.00
$15.00
$16.00
$17.00
$21.00
$21.00
5
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$13.00
$15.00
$15.00
$16.00
$17.00
$21.00
$21.00
$21.00
$21.00
$26.00
4
$10.00
$12.00
$13.00
$15.00
$15.00
$17.00
$21.00
$21.00
$21.00
$26.00
$26.00
$26.00
$26.00
$31.00
$31.00
3
$15.00
$15.00
$17.00
$21.00
$21.00
$26.00
$26.00
$26.00
$31.00
$31.00
$31.00
$34.00
$34.00
$41.00
$41.00
2
$21.00
$26.00
$26.00
$31.00
$31.00
$34.00
$41.00
$41.00
$41.00
$51.00
$51.00
$51.00
$51.00
$61.00
$61.00
 

Consistency with the application of these "overs" is the second key to success. You then need to consider staking options - but that's another story