Assessing
Horse Racing Markets
Most people can pick winners.
Gee - just go with favourite and about 31 - 32 % of the time you'll
be right.
The trouble with that is
the 68 to 69% of the time you'll be wrong and betting on favourites
at cramped odds $2 to $3.00 means that mathematically you must lose.
Almost like playing the poker machines that have fixed odd losing.
They of course claim they mere have fixed percentage payouts but,
believe me, it is fixed odds losing and lose you must.
The conundrum is then to
back horses that, while they may be favourite, they are still value
odds. Please don't confuse value odds with the Sky Channel presenters
who insist on saying really stupid things like, when a $30 pop wins,
breathlessly chant "well, there's a value winner!". Rubbish.
It isn't a value winner unless you have assessed it to be a real $7
chance, or the like.
So how do you effectively
rate your chances to prices if you have laboriously done your best
to rate the chances? (Gosh (shameless plug!) you may even be using
our SelfRate programme. It doesn't matter of you are using your own
ratings - the principle is the same. it is an
easy matter to multiply or divide the "runner points" and
"total race points" to suit your ratings method.True
"value" and "overs" only occurs when the odds
on offer exceed what you estimate them to be.
Here's a table:
|
TOTAL
RACE POINTS (Total of all runners' points added together) |
Runner
Points |
40 |
45 |
50 |
55 |
60 |
65 |
70 |
75 |
80 |
85 |
90 |
95 |
100 |
105 |
110 |
20 |
$2.00 |
$2.30 |
$2.50 |
$2.70 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.50 |
$3.80 |
$4.00 |
$4.30 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$5.50 |
16 |
$2.50 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.50 |
$3.70 |
$4.50 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.00 |
14 |
$3.00 |
$3.30 |
$3.80 |
$4.00 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
12 |
$3.50 |
$3.80 |
$4.30 |
$5.00 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
10 |
$4.00 |
$4.50 |
$5.00 |
$5.50 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.00 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$11.00 |
8 |
$5.00 |
$6.00 |
$6.50 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.50 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
6 |
$7.00 |
$7.50 |
$8.50 |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$16.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
5 |
$8.00 |
$9.00 |
$10.00 |
$11.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$16.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
4 |
$10.00 |
$12.00 |
$13.00 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
3 |
$15.00 |
$15.00 |
$17.00 |
$21.00 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$34.00 |
$34.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
2 |
$21.00 |
$26.00 |
$26.00 |
$31.00 |
$31.00 |
$34.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
$41.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$51.00 |
$61.00 |
$61.00 |
|
Consistency with the application of these
"overs" is the second key to success. You then need to consider
staking options - but that's another story