bad betting proposition in races
And now a word form the
Minister For The Bleeding Obvious: eliminating the bad races, the
races where your selection system is least effective, increases
the winning percentages in the fair to good races.
As I wrote - it could have come from the Minster For The Bleeding
Office's press secretary but it is one of the most common faults
you can see every day at your nearest TAB or on track. Punters scrambling
to get on as they go to the start, scratching around looking for
a form guide line with seconds to go. Desperate for a horse or dog
to bet on - any horse or dog, it doesn't matter - as long as they
think they can find an angle.
The surest way to increase your winning
percentage is to reduce the number of races you bet on if you can
identify the weakest link in your chain.
In my case I simply won't bet on Maiden
or Class 1 races anywhere in Australia. Why?
Some years ago, I was part of a syndicate
that raced a horse. It actually won two races, a maiden at Devonport
and a Class 1 at the old Deloraine course. Wonderful news, you say.
Well, here's the rub - in reality that horse couldn't run out of
sight on a foggy night over a cliff and yet it still managed to
win two low class races. From that time on I started looking very
closely at maidens and class 1 races and the very inconsistency
of those races.
How many times do you read a race report
for a Maiden where the winner is described as "improved many
lengths on it's only other run" and there was no way that you,
astute punter that you are, could possibly have entered that improvement
in to your calculations. Have a look at today's Maiden race fields
- doesn't matter which day you are reading this - any day is the
same and you will see in open Maiden class races horses that are
4 year old or 5 year old or 6 year old maidens!
Some poor sod has been paying up for
these horses for years without a return. You want to join them in
that pursuit? An astute trainer once told me he never bet on any
horse that hadn't done the same "job" before - in other
words, had won or placed in that distance range or had won so strongly
in a weaker class of race that it was obvious it would handle the
increase in class today.
From February 1, 2010 through to February
7, 2010 there were 243 races around Australia you could have invested
your "hard earned" on - that's just about all all provincial
tracks and the major meetings in each State on the Saturday. It
does not include the plethora of overseas races either.
Because my weakest sector of my methodologies
always is betting in maiden or Class 1 races I was able to eliminate
IMMEDIATELY from consideration, 96 races out of the 243 - that's
nearly 40% before I started applying the other filters that I usually
do. It greatly increases my winning percentages by simply making
my life easier. 96 races I didn't have to rate. Hours and hours
and hours freed up to other things rather than"study the form"
or whatever you want to call it. Many hours not sitting in front
of a live computer screen on race days - doing the other things
that have to be done!
How do I really know that they are
the weakest races? Records. Records. Records. I am sure you have
read elsewhere many times about the importance of keeping records.
It is essential to be able to review your favourite system's weakest
links and eliminate them.
I keep every form guide for a year.
Yes - every electronic form guide I download, I download it to a
particular folder on my computer and leave it filed away there for
a year. It's not like the old days where you would have kept every
Sportsman and Sunday paper of choice and filled up half the spare
bedroom with newspapers - much to your partner's disdain!
Electronic files take up very little
space - in fact I can tell you exactly - from September 1 2009 through
to today ( February 10 2010) there are 5338 files in 770 folders
taking up 171 MB - that's because that's what Windows Explorer tells
me in their cute little square!
Before you can be successful at this
caper you have to be organised. A haphazard approach can only lead
you to the door of doom.
You may find that your weakest form
moments are looking at 50 to 55 rating races in NSW and 56 to 64
class races in Victoria. You want to know how many of them there
are in any calendar month? Simply eliminate these races - reduce
your loss leaders - stay in front .
It's not brain surgery yet so many
punters seem to want to make so hard.
Every losing bet you don't have is
really a winner in the overall scheme of things. Eliminate the bad
races and turn your losers in to winners