Understanding
Horse Racing Percentages
One of the sad truths
is that if you asked 100 punters to explain horse racing percentages
to you, all but about 8 would struggle and yet it is one of the most
fundamental parts of the whole profit / loss equation.
The easiest way to get
a handle on it is to imagine a five horse race where all horses are
of equal ability and (in your opinion) chance.
If you were a
bookmaker (read odds maker) your market - (to BREAK EVEN
on the race) would BY NECESSITY then look like this:
Horse A $5.00
(4/1) or 20% chance of winning
Horse B $5.00 (4/1)
or 20% chance of winning
Horse C $5.00 (4/1)
or 20% chance of winning
Horse D $5.00 (4/1)
or 20% chance of winning
Horse E $5.00 (4/1)
or 20% chance of winning
- which of course gives
you the perfect 100% market but unfortunately doesn't cover your costs
nor make you a profit if you took even amounts on each horse.
To do that then
(make a profit!) your market on the same horses of equal
ability and chance would have to look like this:
Horse A $4.50 (7/2)
but in reality (in your opinion) still with a 20%
chance of winning
Horse B $4.50 (7/2)
but in reality (in your opinion) still with a 20%
chance of winning
Horse C $4.50 (7/2)
but in reality (in your opinion) still with a 20%
chance of winning
Horse D $4.50 (7/2)
but in reality (in your opinion) still with a 20%
chance of winning
Horse E $4.50 (7/2)
but in reality (in your opinion) still with a 20%
chance of winning
Of course that is in
a perfect theoretical world where none of us lives!
A real market,
where you estimate horses
to have a different level of chance, adjusted to 120% to make a profit,
would have the following look:
Horse A $2.00
(1/1) or 50% chance of winning
Horse B $3.00 (2/1)
or 33% chance of winning
Horse C $6.00 (5/1)
or 17% chance of winning
Horse D $8.00 (7/1)
or 13% chance of winning
Horse E $15.00 (14/1)
or 7% chance of winning
This means no matter
which horse wins the bookmaker pulls a 20% profit on turnover.
This
is therefore the game: if you are an "opinion
punter" - you have to be better at accurately estimating a horse's
winning chances than the bookmaker if you are betting with him or
if you are betting on the Tote, better at estimating a horse's winning
chances than the punting fraternity at large who set the market via
the TAB
The big moments come
when you successfully get "overs" in terms of percentages
when you are right and they are wrong and bet accordingly. In these
circumstances you ONLY bet when you believe you have the "percentages
edge".
See - easy as that! The
real skill then is in correctly estimating a horse's real chance of
winning and comparing that to the odds available. What? Just got difficult
again?
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RaceRate.com May 2012 . All rights reserved. May be copied freely
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