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Statistics for place running percentages


The whole racing industry is consumed by statistics - and rightfully so. No matter what level of "form study" you do, you will use these statistics in one way or another. But can just one statistic, used on its own, without reference to others, have any real impact on your strike rate percentages?

Consider the following statistics regarding the overall place percentages recorded in up to about 26,000 races held over the last number of years in Australia through to 2014.

These figures are for ALL states, all tracks.

The only other caveat was that any contender had to have had at least 10 career starts.

CAREER PLACE % = 1% TO 9.9%
Races qualifying: 3871
Races won: 152
Starters qualifying: 4393
Win Strike Rate per race: 3.9%
Win Strike Rate per starter: 3.46%
Place Strike Rate per race: 15.9%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 13.97%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 26.5%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 26.8%

CAREER PLACE % = 10% TO 19.9% (15.3.11 TO 15.3.14)
Races qualifying: 14144
Races won: 1060
Starters qualifying: 20710
Win Strike Rate per race: 7.5%
Win Strike Rate per starter: 5.12%
Place Strike Rate per race: 23.5%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 16.01%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 27.0%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 28.9%

CAREER PLACE % = 20% TO 29%
Races qualifying: 24289
Races won: 3043
Starters qualifying: 46394
Win Strike Rate per race: 12.5%
Win Strike Rate per starter: 6.56%
Place Strike Rate per race: 36.2%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 18.94%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 25.1%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 21.9%

CAREER PLACE % = 30% TO 39%
Races qualifying: 29792
Races won: 5794
Starters qualifying: 69203
Win Strike rate per race: 19.4%
Win Strike rate per starter: 8.37%
Place Strike rate per race: 48.8%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 20.97%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 19.6%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 19.3%

CAREER PLACE % = 40% TO 49%
Races qualifying: 26930
Races won: 5942
Starters qualifying: 60512
Win Strike Rate per race: 22.1%
Win Strike Rate per starter: 9.82 %
Place Strike Rate per race: 53.6%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 23.84%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 21.1%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 17.0%

CAREER PLACE % = 50% TO 59%
Races qualifying: 20222
Races won: 4451
Starters qualifying: 37595
Win Strike Rate per race: 22.0%
Win Strike Rate per starter: 11.84%
Place Strike Rate per race: 52.6%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 28.26%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 18.8%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 15.4%

CAREER PLACE % = 60% TO 69%
Races qualifying: 10181
Races won: 2097
Starters qualifying: 14437
Win Strike Rate per race: 20.6%
Win Strike Rate per starter: 14.53 %
Place Strike Rate per race: 49.6%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 34.92%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 14.0%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 11.4%

CAREER PLACE % = 70% PLUS
Races qualifying: 5121
Races won: 1206
Starters qualifying: 6650
Win Strike Rate per race: 23.6%
Win Strike Rate per starter: 18.14%
Place Strike Rate per race: 52.1%
Place Strike Rate per starter: 40.12%
Win Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 15.1%
Place Level Stakes Loss on turnover: 11.4%

Note the differences in win strike rates once the respective 30% place strike rates and 40% place strike rate thresholds are crossed.

Now this is not the be all and end all of race analysis, but what a strong starting point it can be if used effectively with other factors that prove to be important as well. I know statistics are boring and can be confusing, but if you are serious about increasing your strike rate, this stuff cannot be ignored and shoved to one side simply because it takes too long.

These days with numerous computer programmes around that do the "heavy lifting" of these statistics for you, there is no excuse any more for just basing your investments around the old fashioned "form guides".

Now that most of the "good quality races" have been run until Spring, it may be a great time to spend a bit more time on this stuff during the colder and wetter winter months.

Horse racing systems and research