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Frame Your Own Betting Market

Here is a "down and dirty" method of assessing your own market by using ratings.

This table assumes a perfect race situation in which the total of all runners individual ratings points adds up to 100.

Runner
Points (or %)

Pure odds

Less 15%
(TAB take)

50

$2.00

$1.70

48

$2.10

$1.80

45

$2.20

$1.90

43

$2.30

$2.00

42

$2.40

$2.00

40

$2.50

$2.10

38

$2.60

$2.20

37

$2.70

$2.30

36

$2.80

$2.40

35

$2.90

$2.50

33

$3.00

$2.60

32

$3.10

$2.60

31

$3.20

$2.70

30

$3.30

$2.80

29

$3.40

$2.90

28

$3.60

$3.10

27

$3.70

$3.10

26

$3.80

$3.20

25

$4.00

$3.40

24

$4.20

$3.60

23

$4.30

$3.70

22

$4.50

$3.80

21

$4.80

$4.10

20

$5.00

$4.30

19

$5.20

$4.40

18

$5.60

$4.80

17

$5.90

$5.00

16

$6.20

$5.30

15

$6.70

$5.70

14

$7.10

$6.00

13

$7.70

$6.50

12

$8.30

$7.10

11

$9.10

$7.70

10

$10.00

$8.50

9

$11.10

$9.40

8

$12.50

$10.60

7

$14.30

$12.20

6

$16.70

$14.20

5

$20.00

$17.00

4

$25.00

$21.20

  So how does all this "down and dirty" assessment work. (And this a down and dirty" method!)


   Let's take, for example, the last race at Belmont on June 2, 2010.

   Now my ratings had the top 8 as follows:

   Great'n'Grey 100
   Milton Hilton 73
   Cardinal Reign 53
   Superior Speed 42
   Business Partners 40
   Henry Joseph 38
   Arctic Raider 36
   Strategic Prince 33

  So the total points of the top 8 was 415. Divide 415 by 100 = 4.15

  Divide all the runners points by 4.15 and the revised points / prices look like this:

   Great'n'Grey 24 - $3.60
   Milton Hilton 18 - $4.80
   Cardinal Reign 13 - $6.50
   Superior Speed 10 - $8.50
   Business Partners 10 - $8.50

  Henry Joseph 9 - $9.40
   Arctic Raider 9 - $9.40
  Strategic Prince 8 - $10.60
    

  Happily, history shows the results were
  Great'nGrey Won 7.20 / 2.60
  Milton Hilton 2nd 2.30
 Superior Speed 3rd 3.90
 The favourite in the race was Business Partners which ran 4th at $4.80 (unders by our calculations)

 We have found over the years if you use more than the top 8 it tends to give you very few
 "overlays". However if the field strength below the top 8 is strong, such as in feature races,
 the results can be distorted.