FRAME
YOUR OWN MARKET - 2
Here is a "down and
dirty" method of assessing your own market by using
ratings.
This table assumes a perfect
race situation in which the total of all runners individual
ratings points adds up to 100.
| Runner
Points (or %) |
Pure
odds |
Less
15%
(TAB take) |
| 50 |
$2.00 |
$1.70 |
| 48 |
$2.10 |
$1.80 |
| 45 |
$2.20 |
$1.90 |
| 43 |
$2.30 |
$2.00 |
| 42 |
$2.40 |
$2.00 |
| 40 |
$2.50 |
$2.10 |
| 38 |
$2.60 |
$2.20 |
| 37 |
$2.70 |
$2.30 |
| 36 |
$2.80 |
$2.40 |
| 35 |
$2.90 |
$2.50 |
| 33 |
$3.00 |
$2.60 |
| 32 |
$3.10 |
$2.60 |
| 31 |
$3.20 |
$2.70 |
| 30 |
$3.30 |
$2.80 |
| 29 |
$3.40 |
$2.90 |
| 28 |
$3.60 |
$3.10 |
| 27 |
$3.70 |
$3.10 |
| 26 |
$3.80 |
$3.20 |
| 25 |
$4.00 |
$3.40 |
| 24 |
$4.20 |
$3.60 |
| 23 |
$4.30 |
$3.70 |
| 22 |
$4.50 |
$3.80 |
| 21 |
$4.80 |
$4.10 |
| 20 |
$5.00 |
$4.30 |
| 19 |
$5.20 |
$4.40 |
| 18 |
$5.60 |
$4.80 |
| 17 |
$5.90 |
$5.00 |
| 16 |
$6.20 |
$5.30 |
| 15 |
$6.70 |
$5.70 |
| 14 |
$7.10 |
$6.00 |
| 13 |
$7.70 |
$6.50 |
| 12 |
$8.30 |
$7.10 |
| 11 |
$9.10 |
$7.70 |
| 10 |
$10.00 |
$8.50 |
| 9 |
$11.10 |
$9.40 |
| 8 |
$12.50 |
$10.60 |
| 7 |
$14.30 |
$12.20 |
| 6 |
$16.70 |
$14.20 |
| 5 |
$20.00 |
$17.00 |
| 4 |
$25.00 |
$21.20 |
So how does
all this "down and dirty" assessment work.
(And this a down and dirty" method!)
Let's take, for example, the last race
at Belmont on June 2, 2010.
Now the SSG software ratings, using
my filter settings, had the top 8 as follows:
Great'n'Grey 100
Milton Hilton 73
Cardinal Reign 53
Superior Speed 42
Business Partners 40
Henry Joseph 38
Arctic Raider 36
Strategic Prince 33
So the total points of the top 8 was 415.
Divide 415 by 100 = 4.15
Divide all the runners points by 4.15 and
the revised points / prices look like this:
Great'n'Grey 24 - $3.60
Milton Hilton 18 - $4.80
Cardinal Reign 13 - $6.50
Superior Speed 10 - $8.50
Business Partners 10 - $8.50
Henry Joseph
9 - $9.40
Arctic Raider 9 - $9.40
Strategic Prince 8 - $10.60
Happily, history shows the results were
Great'nGrey Won 7.20
/ 2.60
Milton Hilton 2nd
2.30
Superior Speed 3rd
3.90
The favourite in the race was Superior Speed which
ran 4th at $4.80 (unders by our calculations)
We have found over
the years if you use more than the top 8 it tends to
give you very few
"overlays". However if the field strength
below the top 8 is strong, such as in feature races,
the results can be distorted.
