For
some reason the week just passed has thrown up a lot
of odds on favourites that went to the start showing
around $1.80. Why? Maybe just a statistical freak
but I can tell you that less than 40% of them won.
Had
I have ben silly enough to have $10 on each of them
I can tell you I would be a long way behind at the
end of the week! The maths are simple. Say you want
to go on a favourites betting spree for reasons best
known to yourself and you're going to back the next
100 odds on favourites with $10 a pop. And let's also
say that for some strange reason, they all start at
$1.80. In real life of course MANY start a LOT shorter
than that but, for the sake of this exercise, let's
say they start at $1.80.
After
100 bets the figures tell me that only 40 of them
have won and, at $1.80, you've just lost $280 or 28%
of your starting bank of $1000. In fact, to break
square, you needed about 55 of them to win and not
the 40 that did. Now - let's think about that. When
was the last time you had a series of win bets in
100 races in which you were correct 55% of the time?
And that's just to break square!
Wow
- sounds like a lot of work to me to break square
- not to mention the stress and tension. To make 10%
on turnover you would have had to have backed 61 out
of 100 winners. Are you capable of backing 61% winners?
Of course not - I have NEVER met anyone who can back
61% winners over the long term. Ah, you say, but I
can back 61% place getters consistently. Probably
true. Also probably true that the dividends are going
to be significantly lower than $1.80 over the long
term so, in fact, you would need to have strike rate
of over 85%. Oops! Suddenly hard again?
Odds
on favourites will NEVER win enough races for you
to make a profit out of them. Read that again. Odds
on favourites will never win enough races for you
to make a profit out of them.
So
why do you keep backing them? Ego? The desire to be
able to mix with mob and say stuff like "ah -
that was so obvious wasn't it? Pity it wasn't better
odds." How many times have you heard that? The
really obvious ones will never be better odds so get
over it.
The
problem is that the vast majority of punters all think
the same. They all get suckered in to the belief that
"this is a bird" or "that's a certainty"
or "lay down miserre" and guess what? Over
60% of the time 90% of the punters are WRONG.
You
cannot make $$$ consistently until you get past the
"run with mob" mentality. It is absolutely
impossible.
If
you've done your ratings and assessed the prices accordingly
(info is elsewhere on this site) you are ALWAYS in
a sounder position if you forget the odds on stuff
and look for those that YOU assess are overs at $4
and $5 or better. I'd much rather back something at
$8 and see it run 6th than back on adds on pop at
$1.70 and watch it get beaten in to 2nd by a short
half head.
You
don't have to be able back 55% + winners. Once you
realise that, you free yourself enormously from the
"mob" and you will start making money. And
isn't that what's supposed to happen?
