Horse racing systems, racing ratings, horse racing software, horse racing staking plans and greyhound systems


Whole Box & Dice

Daily Ratings

The Grail

Speed Ratings

Par Times

Free Articles Library

Track Information

Racing Statistics

Free Staking Plans

Selfrate Software

Past Champs (A - L)

Past Champs (M - Z)

Feature Race Winners

Sport On This Day

Free Systems

Your Feedback

Speedrate 2016 software

Contact Us

Terms Of Use

Copyright Notice


Odds on betting on horse racing

For some reason the week just passed has thrown up a lot of odds on favourites that went to the start showing around $1.80. Why? Maybe just a statistical freak but I can tell you that less than 40% of them won.

Had I have ben silly enough to have $10 on each of them I can tell you I would be a long way behind at the end of the week! The maths are simple. Say you want to go on a favourites betting spree for reasons best known to yourself and you're going to back the next 100 odds on favourites with $10 a pop.

And let's also say that for some strange reason, they all start at $1.80. In real life of course MANY start a LOT shorter than that but, for the sake of this exercise, let's say they start at $1.80.

After 100 bets the figures tell me that only 40 of them have won and, at $1.80, you've just lost $280 or 28% of your starting bank of $1000. In fact, to break square, you needed about 55 of them to win and not the 40 that did. Now - let's think about that.

When was the last time you had a series of win bets in 100 races in which you were correct 55% of the time? And that's just to break square!

Wow - sounds like a lot of work to me to break square - not to mention the stress and tension. To make 10% on turnover you would have had to have backed 61 out of 100 winners. Are you capable of backing 61% winners? Of course not - I have NEVER met anyone who can back 61% winners over the long term.

Ah, you say, but I can back 61% place getters consistently. Probably true. Also probably true that the dividends are going to be significantly lower than $1.80 over the long term so, in fact, you would need to have strike rate of over 85%. Oops! Suddenly hard again?

Odds on favourites will NEVER win enough races for you to make a profit out of them. Read that again. Odds on favourites will never win enough races for you to make a profit out of them.

So why do you keep backing them? Ego? The desire to be able to mix with mob and say stuff like "ah - that was so obvious wasn't it? Pity it wasn't better odds." How many times have you heard that? The really obvious ones will never be better odds so get over it.

The problem is that the vast majority of punters all think the same. They all get suckered in to the belief that "this is a bird" or "that's a certainty" or "lay down miserre" and guess what? Over 60% of the time 90% of the punters are WRONG.

You cannot make $$$ consistently until you get past the "run with mob" mentality. It is absolutely impossible.

If you've done your ratings and assessed the prices accordingly (info is elsewhere on this site) you are ALWAYS in a sounder position if you forget the odds on stuff and look for those that YOU assess are overs at $4 and $5 or better. I'd much rather back something at $8 and see it run 6th than back on adds on pop at $1.70 and watch it get beaten in to 2nd by a short half head.

You don't have to be able back 55% + winners. Once you realise that, you free yourself enormously from the "mob" and you will start making money.

And isn't that what's supposed to happen?




Horse racing systems and research