For some reason
the week just passed has thrown up a lot of odds on favourites
that went to the start showing around $1.80. Why? Maybe just a
statistical freak but I can tell you that less than 40% of them
won.
Had I have
ben silly enough to have $10 on each of them I can tell you I
would be a long way behind at the end of the week! The maths are
simple. Say you want to go on a favourites betting spree for reasons
best known to yourself and you're going to back the next 100 odds
on favourites with $10 a pop.
And let's
also say that for some strange reason, they all start at $1.80.
In real life of course MANY start a LOT shorter than that but,
for the sake of this exercise, let's say they start at $1.80.
After 100
bets the figures tell me that only 40 of them have won and, at
$1.80, you've just lost $280 or 28% of your starting bank of $1000.
In fact, to break square, you needed about 55 of them to win and
not the 40 that did. Now - let's think about that.
When was the
last time you had a series of win bets in 100 races in which you
were correct 55% of the time? And that's just to break square!
Wow - sounds
like a lot of work to me to break square - not to mention the
stress and tension. To make 10% on turnover you would have had
to have backed 61 out of 100 winners. Are you capable of backing
61% winners? Of course not - I have NEVER met anyone who can back
61% winners over the long term.
Ah, you say,
but I can back 61% place getters consistently. Probably true.
Also probably true that the dividends are going to be significantly
lower than $1.80 over the long term so, in fact, you would need
to have strike rate of over 85%. Oops! Suddenly hard again?
Odds on favourites
will NEVER win enough races for you to make a profit out of them.
Read that again. Odds on favourites will never win enough races
for you to make a profit out of them.
So why do
you keep backing them? Ego? The desire to be able to mix with
mob and say stuff like "ah - that was so obvious wasn't it?
Pity it wasn't better odds." How many times have you heard
that? The really obvious ones will never be better odds so get
over it.
The problem
is that the vast majority of punters all think the same. They
all get suckered in to the belief that "this is a bird"
or "that's a certainty" or "lay down miserre"
and guess what? Over 60% of the time 90% of the punters are WRONG.
You cannot
make $$$ consistently until you get past the "run with mob"
mentality. It is absolutely impossible.
If you've
done your ratings and assessed the prices accordingly (info is
elsewhere on this site) you are ALWAYS in a sounder position if
you forget the odds on stuff and look for those that YOU assess
are overs at $4 and $5 or better. I'd much rather back something
at $8 and see it run 6th than back on adds on pop at $1.70 and
watch it get beaten in to 2nd by a short half head.
You don't
have to be able back 55% + winners. Once you realise that, you
free yourself enormously from the "mob" and you will
start making money.
And isn't
that what's supposed to happen?
Horse
racing systems and research
