When
gambling or punting on nothing is a good bet
One of
the little sayings we shuffle around on the home page
of this site reads: "Money you don't lose now,
is money you don't have to win back later."
Now anyone
that has been involved in punting for more than three
minutes probably knows exactly what those few words
are all about. And some times doing nothing is the smartest
thing to do. If you have a memory that encompasses political
events you will also know what I mean when I tell you
that one of the keys to John Howard's success as Prime
Minister for such a long time was his unbelievable ability
to do absolutely nothing when everyone else was running
around like chooks with their heads cut off. Don't read
this as a criticism of the guy - I was in admiration
of his ability to always be "last in to the market"
but always with the correct information. He was great
at doing nothing and looked very comfortable in the
execution of that strategy.
Poor old
Kim Beazley (the then Opposition Leader) must have got
so exasperated by it all - there he'd be, all hysterical
about the latest, mostly manufactured, government crisis,
almost screaming with affected rage, and good old John
would trot out a day or two later and hose it all down
with facts delivered in a calm and measured manner.
Howard
didn't give two hoots about the "24 hour news cycle"
- he was intent on making sure that when he did come
out with an opinion on a "hot topic" he was
ALWAYS correct and never was guilty of being seen shooting
from the lip.
Similarly,
sometimes the best thing you can do with a race is to
sit it out - do nothing - watch them go around. Every
dollar you don't lose can be regarded as a win when
the ledger gets totalled at the end of the year. They
say! You know "they" - the experts?
Playing
the devil's advocate, also let me remind you that, for
me, I love losses on a race because with the betting
methodology I have come to use and value, I cannot win
unless I make losses and the amounts I lose are merely
stepping stones to the eventual gain. No one can win
on every bet - with a sensible progression plan - note
I say sensible and not over the top stupid and suicidal
- every losing bet does make up part of your eventual
gain - note again, EVENTUAL. I have written about this
a lot in other parts of this site.
Bottom
line is if you have done the research and put in the
time to find a method that you believe in the long term
trends positive, a sensible progression plan will most
likely work. But you need to have a progression that
allows for a long run of outs or the bets get too big
too quickly and you self destruct.
But getting
back to the original point, sitting out races can be
a valuable strategy if level stakes or "percentage
of bank/non loss adjusting" is the way you choose
to punt. You don't HAVE to bet in any race this afternoon.
No one is holding a gun to your head and demanding you
slip 50 or 100 on something in the first leg of the
daily double. So one of your betting options and effective
strategies can genuinely be NOT to bet.
This is
particularly valuable if you have assessed a horse as
a three to one chance ($4 for a $1 investment) and it
turns up on the tote as $2.50. You don't have to bet
on it and if you are betting to your own assessed prices
that YOU believe to be accurate, I certainly wouldn't
be putting my hard earned on it at what I clearly believe
to be a non value price. Assessing
your own racing markets? Click here.
If you
aren't betting on hunches, and one hopes you're not,
you are betting to a "system" of rules. Some
methods have five or six rules, some have just one or
two, others have 15 or 20. Logic tells you that by at
least taking the time to assess the published form of
a horse and eliminating it if it transgresses some of
the no no's that most methods contain, your chances
of success MUST be better than sticking a pin in a page
while blindfolded.
You may
have decided that certain factors decide the outcome
of many races that are run around Australia every day
and that, overall, by concentrating on those races where
those particular factors come in to play, that you have
a better chance of winning. Great. (Or Greta if
you are in to typos). But that doesn't mean you
have to bet on every occurrence if the value angle isn't
correct. Sit it out. Do nothing. Wait till the moment
is right. Perhaps this called patience? (Oh not
they yelled - he's back to THAT again!)
Most punters
make the wrong bets through greed - mesmerised by whispered
tips, the latest and greatest "Betting Secrets
Revealed" books, easy money to be made at the racetrack
web sites. These are all lies. The only way to make
modest dollars from betting on racing is through the
rigid application of rules of investment that YOU have
researched and believe in enough to make really disciplined
bets on. There are three descriptives in that last sentence
that all start with R. Rigid. Researched. Really disciplined.
If that
potential wager does not measure up to those three Rs
- sit out. Don't bet. Keep your money in your pocket
or your account. If you are betting on the TAB remember
this:- because of the Government's take you are already
15 - 17% behind the "real odds eight ball".
Taking less than your assessed value puts you impossibly
further behind.
© RaceRate.com
2011
