on nothing is good
One of the little sayings
we shuffle around on the home page of this site reads: "Money
you don't lose now, is money you don't have to win back later."
Now anyone that has been
involved in punting for more than three minutes probably knows exactly
what those few words are all about. And some times doing nothing is
the smartest thing to do. If you have a memory that encompasses political
events you will also know what I mean when I tell you that one of
the keys to John Howard's success as Prime Minister for such a long
time was his unbelievable ability to do absolutely nothing when everyone
else was running around like chooks with their heads cut off. Don't
read this as a criticism of the guy - I was in admiration of his ability
to always be "last in to the market" but always with the
correct information. He was great at doing nothing and looked very
comfortable in the execution of that strategy.
Poor old Kim Beazley
(the then Opposition Leader) must have got so exasperated by it all
- there he'd be, all hysterical about the latest, mostly manufactured,
government crisis, almost screaming with affected rage, and good old
John would trot out a day or two later and hose it all down with facts
delivered in a calm and measured manner.
Howard didn't give two
hoots about the "24 hour news cycle" - he was intent on
making sure that when he did come out with an opinion on a "hot
topic" he was ALWAYS correct and never was guilty of being seen
shooting from the lip.
the best thing you can do with a race is to sit it out - do nothing
- watch them go around. Every dollar you don't lose can be regarded
as a win when the ledger gets totalled at the end of the year. They
say! You know "they" - the experts?
Playing the devil's advocate,
also let me remind you that, for me, I love losses on a race because
with the betting methodology I have come to use and value, I cannot
win unless I make losses and the amounts I lose are merely stepping
stones to the eventual gain. No one can win on every bet - with a
sensible progression plan - note I say sensible and not over the top
stupid and suicidal - every losing bet does make up part of your eventual
gain - note again, EVENTUAL. I have written about this a lot in other
parts of this site.
Bottom line is if you
have done the research and put in the time to find a method that you
believe in the long term trends positive, a sensible progression plan
will most likely work. But you need to have a progression that allows
for a long run of outs or the bets get too big too quickly and you
But getting back to the
original point, sitting out races can be a valuable strategy if level
stakes or "percentage of bank/non loss adjusting" is the
way you choose to punt. You don't HAVE to bet in any race this afternoon.
No one is holding a gun to your head and demanding you slip 50 or
100 on something in the first leg of the daily double. So one of your
betting options and effective strategies can genuinely be NOT to bet.
This is particularly
valuable if you have assessed a horse as a three to one chance ($4
for a $1 investment) and it turns up on the tote as $2.50. You don't
have to bet on it and if you are betting to your own assessed prices
that YOU believe to be accurate, I certainly wouldn't be putting my
hard earned on it at what I clearly believe to be a non value price.
Assessing your own racing
markets? Click here.
If you aren't betting
on hunches, and one hopes you're not, you are betting to a "system"
of rules. Some methods have five or six rules, some have just one
or two, others have 15 or 20. Logic tells you that by at least taking
the time to assess the published form of a horse and eliminating it
if it transgresses some of the no no's that most methods contain,
your chances of success MUST be better than sticking a pin in a page
You may have decided
that certain factors decide the outcome of many races that are run
around Australia every day and that, overall, by concentrating on
those races where those particular factors come in to play, that you
have a better chance of winning. Great. (Or Greta if you are in
to typos). But that doesn't mean you have to bet on every occurrence
if the value angle isn't correct. Sit it out. Do nothing. Wait till
the moment is right. Perhaps this called patience? (Oh not they
yelled - he's back to THAT again!)
Most punters make the
wrong bets through greed - mesmerised by whispered tips, the latest
and greatest "Betting Secrets Revealed" books, easy money
to be made at the racetrack web sites. These are all lies. The only
way to make modest dollars from betting on racing is through the rigid
application of rules of investment that YOU have researched and believe
in enough to make really disciplined bets on. There are three descriptives
in that last sentence that all start with R. Rigid. Researched. Really
If that potential wager
does not measure up to those three Rs - sit out. Don't bet. Keep your
money in your pocket or your account. If you are betting on the TAB
remember this:- because of the Government's take you are already 15
- 17% behind the "real odds eight ball". Taking less than
your assessed value puts you impossibly further behind.
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