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Odds And Percentages In Horse Racing

A lot of people try to make this way more complicated than it is so here is a simple chart that equates odds to % chance (or your rated chance). No deduction has been made for TAB rip outs and for the benefit of newer punters, just because a horse is $2.00 to win it DOES NOT MEAN that it has a 50% chance of winning. The "Chance of winning" column in the table below refers to YOUR estimate of its winning chances - yes, YOUR opinion. The next step and question then becomes "how do I establish that opinion?". Other pages on this site may give you a guide to establishing a set of ratings and therefore be able to establish that "chance" evaluation.

Odds to $1
Chance of winning %
1.50
67%
1.60
63%
1.70
59%
1.80
56%
1.90
53%
2.00
50%
2.10
48%
2.20
46%
2.30
44%
2.40
42%
2.50
40%
2.70
36%
3.00
33%
3.50
29%
4.00
25%
4.50
22%
5.00
20%
5.50
18%
6.00
17%
6.50
15%
7.00
14%
7.50
13%
8.00
12%
8.50
11%
9.00
11%
10.00
10%

 

Horse racing systems and research

The age old "only bet when you are getting value" approach can then be determined to mean that if YOU think a horse has a 33% chance of winning and therefore should be "about" $3.00 and you can get $5.00 for it - in other words, the "market" disagrees with your assessment and thinks it only has a 20% chance, then the $5.00 would, to you, be excellent value and worthy of investment. If your assessemnts are correct in the long term as opposed to "the markets", you should end up in front. That's the theory.

That's the whole thing in a nutshell. See? Wasn't complicated at all now was it?