THE
WORDS OF "CHICAGO O'BRIEN"
Chicago
O'Brien was a very famous USA punter who switched mid
career from win betting to place betting. He coined
the phrase "pick 'em to win; play 'em to place".
Bear
in mind that in the States "place" means first
or second so the dividends and percentages are different
but his message and words are quite thought provoking.
If
you have a moment or two, read HIS words
"In
racing, there's no such thing as a certainty, though
I try to bet on horses I feel deserve that tag. But
I am only too aware that a horse can be tried as a good
thing but things happen during a race that can knock
big holes in the pre race theories."
"A
bump, a check, a blocked run or being forced wide on
the turn can all mean the difference between victory
and defeat."
"I
have seen all these things happen to standout propositions
which, as a result, have lost by inches instead of winning
by many lengths."
"in
my early days of racing, one thing struck me and when
it did I struck oil. These in-the-race incidents would
cause the certainty to lose but not miss the place."
"I
started investigating the performance of horses which
those on the inside had declared as unbeatable."
"I
discovered this amazing fact: my list showed 127 such
horses, of which, 52 won but the prices were mostly
short and a flat stake win bet showed a loss of 16 units."
"Then
I considered the place angle. Of the same 127 horses,
there were the 52 winners plus another 63 which finished
2nd..........a player backing each horse for a place
would have reaped a profit of 36.5 units"
"That
discovery gave me something to think about. For years
I had been putting down my money on the nose and I could
think of hundreds of times in which I had won or lost
in close finishes. It made me realise my blood pressure
would have been much better had my bets always been
for the place and my bank balance would have looked
far rosier."
"So
I learned a valuable lesson, one that stood the test
of time for the rest of my betting life. If you are
in the racing business, be business-like."
"It's
much better business to pick up small profits on gilt-edged
securities than try to gamble in the hope of big returns."
"(My
investigation) proved to me just what a sucker I'd been
in the past. I resolved then to never again bet on a
horse's nose, not even if it was champion staker against
a no-hoper at level stakes"
"From
then on, until I said goodbye to gambling, I bet only
one way. I waited for the good things, the horses my
judgement told me were certain to win, and then I played
them for the place."
Interesting
thoughts?????
