Chicago O'Brien was a very famous USA
punter who switched mid career from win betting to place
betting. He coined the phrase "pick 'em to win; play
'em to place".
Bear in mind that in the States "place"
means first or second so the dividends and percentages
are different but his message and words are quite thought
provoking.
If you have a moment or two, read HIS
words
"In racing, there's no such thing
as a certainty, though I try to bet on horses I feel deserve
that tag. But I am only too aware that a horse can be
tried as a good thing but things happen during a race
that can knock big holes in the pre race theories."
"A bump, a check, a blocked run or
being forced wide on the turn can all mean the difference
between victory and defeat."
"I have seen all these things happen
to standout propositions which, as a result, have lost
by inches instead of winning by many lengths."
"in my early days of racing, one
thing struck me and when it did I struck oil. These in-the-race
incidents would cause the certainty to lose but not miss
the place."
"I started investigating the performance
of horses which those on the inside had declared as unbeatable."
"I discovered this amazing fact:
my list showed 127 such horses, of which, 52 won but the
prices were mostly short and a flat stake win bet showed
a loss of 16 units."
"Then I considered the place angle.
Of the same 127 horses, there were the 52 winners plus
another 63 which finished 2nd..........a player backing
each horse for a place would have reaped a profit of 36.5
units"
"That discovery gave me something
to think about. For years I had been putting down my money
on the nose and I could think of hundreds of times in
which I had won or lost in close finishes. It made me
realise my blood pressure would have been much better
had my bets always been for the place and my bank balance
would have looked far rosier."
"So I learned a valuable lesson,
one that stood the test of time for the rest of my betting
life. If you are in the racing business, be business-like."
"It's much better business to pick
up small profits on gilt-edged securities than try to
gamble in the hope of big returns."
"(My investigation) proved to me
just what a sucker I'd been in the past. I resolved then
to never again bet on a horse's nose, not even if it was
champion staker against a no-hoper at level stakes"
"From then on, until I said goodbye
to gambling, I bet only one way. I waited for the good
things, the horses my judgement told me were certain to
win, and then I played them for the place."
