RACERATE RATINGS STAKING PLAN WORKOUT

Now before you go racing off to see how to do this (and we know you probably will straight away!) please read this page FIRST.

Bank 1: December 2008 to 27 February 2009: Profit of $9892. To view the workout sheets of our FIRST bank that we "busted" after 86 winning days CLICK HERE

Please read the guidelines below that WE were utilising in our approach to staking these selections - they are NOT for everybody.

How do we use the ratings?
Using the dutch bet calculator found elsewhere on this site, we back all three (if there are three selections in a race - otherwise just the one or two) so, regardless of which one wins, we win our set nominal amount per race - 0.5% of our starting betting bank with running losses carried forward and added to the 0.5% target.
Some rated horses are at substantial odds so we back them for a place instead of a win within our dutching mix (if they are $3.00 a place or better) - in that way there's always the chance we pick up more than one dividend per race which is a bonus and has proven a very beneficial approach.

Also note that in our betting trial we changed from The Tote (Tasmanian) on January 17 to the Victorian TAB - why? Because we found that the VicTab website updated approximate dividends more frequently and accurately closer to race time than the other - maybe it's just our set up here but that was our opinion.

In our betting journey, we started with a round $1000 and kept our staking profit aim at $5 per race rated until we tripled the initial bank to $3000. At that point we doubled the staking profit aim but in fact we were actually diminishing the % ask from 0.5% to about 0.33%

When the bank again tripled to $9000 we did consider doubling the target again but have stayed at the same level. WHY? Because we feel comfortable at that level when "the chase is on" and you cannot put a price on comfort - we have always found in the past that when we step outside our comfort level we start making stupid bets - so why spoil a good thing?

On Feb. 4 2009, after the most exasperating day of near misses/almosts/just beatens, we almost wiped out the entire two months profit which taught us the following lessons:
1: When you have doubled your initial bank, withdraw it immediately and start again as if the progression had only just begun (great name for a song but I think The Carpenters have already done it).
2. Regularly take profits from the bank so you always have the funds to start a new progression if you do wipe out (which WILL happen - repeat - which WILL happen - repeat - which WILL happen)
3. Never top up the bank to enable a bet to be made - wait until a race comes along that "fits" within the requirements of the available prices.

NOTE WELL: (extremely well!!!)
a) We DO NOT bet on these if they less than $3 a win

b) We generally skip the race if all three selections are priced in the $3 to $4 range for win or place - this depends on the point of the chase progression and the amount being wagered - a lot of the times, even chasing a somewhat meagre amount, the bets required on all three suddenly leapt up to three figures per rated horse. At this point, early in a progression, we deleted the race from our considerations as the escalation of the progression becomes extreme from this point on.
This just became a matter of good judgment. Do not overlook this - do it at your peril! Were we concerned about missing races? Not in the slightest - the world is never going to run out of races.
For even greater safety, you may like to incorporate a rule that at least one of the three selections must be greater than $5.00 win or place to control this danger factor even more - AND IT IS A DANGER FACTOR!!
We noticed this trend very early in our testing and incorporated it as a safety brake as our bank increased - much to our satisfaction. Again, this is a personal choice and we approach it progression by progression - timing is everything!
NOTE: This is not a consideration if there are only two rated horses or less in the race.

c) Sometimes, because of the % fractions, we noticed that at the end of a longer progression e.g. a run of outs of, say, 4 races, because of these small fractional amounts in our carry over staking losses, we fell slightly short of the target as far as net profit was concerned. In these cases, we either added the shortfall on to the first bet target for the next progression or just dismissed it completely -there's heaps of time!!.

d) What you see in the betting trial workouts is as it happened - keystroke errors and all - as none of us is perfect in these matters :-)

e) Did it get scary at times? You can bet your sweet bippy it did and the danger of a total loss was always there but the consistency of the ratings - and their capacity to select longer priced winners and place getters was what pulled it through

f) Are there other methods of staking these ratings to success? Undoubtedly there are - this is just the method we chose. If you wanted to make it even safer you could change the $3 win price rule to $4. That would probably work out fine - we haven't had the hours to test this. All the figures are there - you may come up with a "screamer" of a staking plan that suits the ratings to a tee. If you do, please pass it on for the benefit of others. That sort of karma is worth a fortune to you in the long run.

g) In real life, you will probably not be able to spend all day as we did on the computer 7 days a week - up to 5 hours a day - especially doing the calculations with one minute to go in the betting so you will probably take some prices over and some prices under - we think what you lose on the swings you'll regain on the roundabout.

YES - this is gambling and YES we could have lost the $1k we started with. If you are attempting this - SO COULD YOU. If you start making rash bets when under pressure and the adrenalin is flowing - DO NOT DO THIS METHOD - find something else!

h) Won't having people betting on these ratings in this method reduce the dividends? Only marginally because we are dutch betting according to the existing market - in other words, we are betting proportionately on the losers as well so the overall pool, while enlarged, will basically stay in the same proportions - it will reduce IF everyone is at the same stage of a loss cycle but the chances of that are probably lower than what you would think as everyone cannot possibly bet in the same number of races, day in, day out, all States all races - it is most unlikely. It is also worth noting that there are different tote pools operating in Australia so the likelihood is that people across the country must be in different stages of a progression because of the differing TAB dividends paid - particularly applicable in cases of the "$3 a place" (win or place bet) scenario

i) We bet ONLY in the last minute of betting - this takes a degree of skill with your computer management - you will probably miss races due to lack of time IF you bet on more than three meetings per day - some divvies you must overestimate and others you will underestimate - all things being equal and given that no one is "always unlucky" what you miss out on the swings you should pick up on the roundabout........ that IS a risk factor.

j) Why don't you bet on Sydney metro meetings? We find that with the current race classes they are using there with insanely specialised methods of handicapping that they are way too inconsistent. But that's the same throughout NSW? Yes - and the further you get away from Sydney the more consistent our ratings because of the methodology we use. Just the way it is - but, when other meetings are looking doubtful, we do occasionally venture in to the Sydney market.

k) If you go through the staking plan as implemented you will notice that in some cases the profit achieved was in excess of that being "chased" - this generally happens at the start of a progression if you are are rounding down (which we don't do any more) - e.g. if the horse was showing 4.60 we entered 4 in the dutch betting calculator for simplicity. It soon became obvious that the closer you got to the final dividend in your estimation, the less dramatic the escalation of stakes during a run of outs. Please bear in mind that we were learning as we went - as you will if you choose to play with this. The betting workout is presented "warts and all" - yes, we make mistakes - we try not to but that is the human condition!

l) If, because of the less than $3 rule, only one horse remains for consideration, skip the race

 

 

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