Gambling for all the
Let me start by saying this is NOT an
article about advocating gambling as there is no right reason for
gambling other than entertainment. If you want to be entertained and
find gambling thrilling and exciting, well, that's great and is a
lot better for those involved than drinking or drugs or becoming obsessed
with porno movies.
Personally, I go out of my way to try
and avoid gambling. When people who don't know me ask me what I do
(an "indexing" question so they can put you in to one
of their comfortable "boxes" and assess their status compared
to yours), I tell them I'm an investment banker. Well, I have
a bank and make investments, so that's close enough for me and it
puts paid to all of the stupid questions that naturally follow if
you tell them the absolute truth.
This flippant reply to a dumb question
isn't really that far away from the truth. I do make what I believe
to be reasoned investments based on odds value and never without all
due care and consideration. The odds available are what finally determines
if an investment is to be made and how great that investment will
Shopping for odds is more important than
making the initial judgement. The same as when we go shopping at the
local supermarket. (I do all our shopping so this is one of my
favourite subjects - indulge me!) I like Streets Splits ice creams
- they taste delicious and aren't too heavy on the calories so they're
for me. I know that week in and week out you can buy these at Coles
and Woolworths for $5.50 for a box of ten. Every two to three weeks
though they have them on special at $4.00 so I buy a few boxes and
stick them in the chest freezer. Same as toilet paper. If you're paying
more than 50 cents a roll for the "quality" brands, you're
paying too much.
Your punting should be no different.
If you can't get better than the odds that you think and have assessed
as being an accurate estimation of the horse's or greyhound's actual
chance, don't bet. It's as simple as that. Don't bet!
What are they going to do if you don't
bet? Send out the goon squad with the black body armour and batons?
With The Grail (which we have been having
some good success with for a lot of months) we do not bet odds on
- ever. Not even $1.95 or $1.90, No odds on. EVER. Why? Because over
the long term pattern of predictability, these bets have consistently
shown to us that, in context with The Grail selection methods, they
are not a winning investment - they are a gamble - and we try not
If you know the odds are not right, how
can you possibly add them in to the mix of your betting activities
without breaking all the rules you have set for yourself? And if you
are going to break your own rules that you set for yourself after
due consideration for what you are trying to achieve, what on earth
are you doing?
If you've done the research and believe
your approach is correct in the long term, you're not gambling. If
you're sitting in a pub with tote facilities and having a few drinks
and punting on whichever greyhound takes a dump on the way to the
boxes, you are gambling and so your stake per race should be diminished
dramatically (by a factor of 95%) in comparison to any selection
you've made after putting in the time and effort to try and assess
And remember the time element is very
important. Why waste the time doing the hard yards just to throw it
away on the rubbish bets? It quite simply doesn't make sense. At the
end of the day, time is, without doubt, the most precious
thing you have and is irreplaceable. Money just comes and goes. Figures
in a book and inconsequential.
When you have established in your mind
that the approach you are taking is correct, and that only comes after
months of research, document it all very carefully in Excel or some
other spreadsheet programme so that over time you can experiment and
revise your investment strategy and see what works and what doesn't
based on the rules you have set for yourself.
After months of battling it out, you
may find that with a simple change in investment strategy a marginal
idea can become a really profitable one and by having a spreadsheet
set of results you can do those experiments with just a few keystrokes.
Not every approach you decide upon will
be successful. Some will "go off" (for a variety of reasons).
Some won't be worth the time taken to achieve the result you desire
and when that's the case THROW IT AWAY. Get rid of it and don't go
there again. No one is perfect all the time. That's not how humans
are genetically designed. If you're wrong - admit it. If you can't
do that, you are destined to lose day in, day out.
Success in this business (yes, it can
be a business) can ONLY be achieved through having a controlled investment
strategy from which you are emotionally divorced and to which you
adopt a very "matter of fact" attitude. There can be only
minimal excitement input and almost always be mathematically based.
Success is almost always NEVER attributed
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