If you're serious
about winning on horse racing or gambling, you simply have to
have a staking plan approach or you are doomed to failure.
It's as simple as
that. What do they say? Failing to plan is simply planning to
Staking plans are
all about mathematics - returns VS investment. It really doesn't
matter where in the world you apply these staking plans, the mathematics
never changes. THEY CAN'T.
If you are going
to stagger along every day with no plan, no discipline, no sequence
of bets depending on value,
well good luck to you because you are going to need it.
If you are going
to just haphazardly vary your bets from $20 on this, then $50
on that all up something because it's favourite, then $100 to
catch up on something you've never heard of because you heard
a bloke say on TV it was a good chance, you will lose.
No ifs. No buts.
That's the bottom line. Without fear of contradiction, I can assure
you that you will lose.
The staking plan you use is way more
important than ANY selection criteria you choose...... in fact,
probably by a factor of greater than 10.
If you don't have a methodical and
mechanical staking plan that takes in to account possible losing
streaks and average strike rates and prices, you are destined
to lose -there is no other possible outcome.
The selection criteria may well make up the "Knowledge"
aspect of what you are trying to achieve, but a well thought out
and executed staking plan will make up the Dedication, Persistence,
Patience and Discipline part of the equation -and the boring
time-consuming matter of "record keeping" then takes
care of itself if you are using, say, an Excel spreadsheet to
control the staking.
There is no quick fix.......NONE
that I have come across in fifty years of playing with this stuff.
If you want to turn a profit in
the long term from racing, I am absolutely convinced it is all
in the mechanics of the staking and how you are mentally equipped
to deal with the losing streaks that MUST come along on a regular
It's why you must also select
the staking method that best suits your psychological approach
It all comes down to personal patience
and what your hopes are - what percentage do you want to win over
the year this year and how safe can you go without making the
whole "game" - and it is a game -so boring that it drives
you back to your old
ways of losing?
I have found it is especially advantageous
NOT to bet on anything less than $2.50 as a losing streak sequence
"losses catch up" situation is then more controlled
and causes less stress with the difference in escalation of amounts
needed to be wagered significantly different at a $2.50 minimum
rather than the "traditional" $2.00. (Don't bet odds
on and don't run up stairs!). The maximum losing sequence then
generally gets out to 13 or 14 from around 10.
The interesting thing you find if
you adopt this idea of really concentrated staking rules, is that
at the end of the day it doesn't matter to you which horse wins
- who the leading trainer or jockey is - where they're racing
- it all becomes numbers and number crunching.
Your past values of what made racing
fascinating to you will quickly fade and it just becomes a matter
of progression from one race to another, day after day, hour after
These are the choices I make. They may not suit you. You may choose
to have the romantic values of watching a Black Caviar or Atlantic
Jewel win race after race and marvel at "the majestic ability
of the beast" (generally at $1.04 or $1.10 if you are lucky)
as I used to with horses like Kingston Town and Vain and Octagonal
and Eye Liner.
Whatever method of selection you
use, hopefully with an estimated strike rate of greater than 28
-30% -please, please -develop a staking plan that allows you the
flexibility to follow it through to the (perhaps bitter) end and
still keeps you interested in the selection method you have chosen.
Who knows? With a concentrated dose
of discipline you may even turn a profit!
staking plan can make up for plainly poor selections.