racing strategy to winning
main difference between a professional punter and an amateur is that
the professional spends less time and effort looking for winners and
more time looking for returns.
That is the aspect of betting on which you must concentrate if you
are ever to succeed long term.
best bet in a race is not necessarily the most likely winner. Given
two options on the roll of a dice, ‘any number over two’
and ‘any number below three’, the first option is the
likeliest winner, but, at odds of 2/5 and 5/2 respectively, it would
be the worst bet of the two.
both good and bad, are an unavoidable
part of betting. Yet, whatever your current sequence may be, it does
not in any way affect the chance of your next bet.
The fact that you have either won or lost your last seven bets does
not give your eighth any more or less chance than it already has.
effect of additional weight is greatly negated on tight horse racing
tracks. The horses are continually running around bends and never
get into the prolonged straight gallop where extra weight would tell.
On such tracks we would therefore expect those at the top of the handicap
to do well.
will price up the race himself before the markets open…..if
he can’t get the price he wants he won’t even have a penny
on, no matter how much of a good thing he thinks the horse is."
Terry Ramsden describing the key to the success of legendary punter
J. P. McManus.
worry about losing sequences, expect them. Provided your bets are
made at a bigger price than they really should be you will come out
A couple of 7/1 winners at either end of a losing sequence of 28 will
return just as much as another series of 32 bets, all made at even
money, with an alternate win-lose pattern, and comprising losing sequences
of no more than one.
a professional you need to understand that you
are betting against other punters and not against a bookmaker
or TAB. Terms such as ‘beat the bookie’ and players who
refer to bookmakers and tote as ‘the enemy’ don’t
reflect the mechanics of betting.
Your ‘enemies’ are your fellow punters, and the bookmaker
or tote merely provides a service through which you compete with them.
some reason punters tend to stake more than normal on the big meetings.
The truth is that high value bets are more difficult to find in races
where there are more serious contenders.
The seasoned professional maintains an ingrained discipline at these
times. If you are operating with a fixed staking method from a pre-prepared
betting bank this is a potential pitfall which will be avoided.
regular breaks from betting. It helps you keep everything in perspective
and gives you time to analyse your performance.
Taking time out is especially important when you are deep into a significant
sequence of results, and that applies equally whether it be a positive
sequence or a negative one.
properly controlled, professional betting is a very attractive form
of investment. It is vital that you have a betting bank set up specifically
for the purpose. The size of your bank should be, at the very least,
equivalent to the longest losing run you can mathematically expect
multiplied by your maximum stake, and ideally you should also have
a reserve bank of the same amount.
That way you will remain in control throughout the period of your
have any idea whether you are obtaining value for your bet, you must
be able to price up an event yourself. You have to be able to express
your opinions in numeric terms in order to compare them with the opinions
of the layers. Merely attempting to select winners
is not enough and will get you nowhere in the long term.
too long studying a race is often worse than not spending long enough.
If you continue to study once you feel comfortable about a selection
you can become immobilised to the extent that, even if you do change
your mind, you cannot possibly feel happy about doing so.
method which relies purely on picking winners is both fraught with
danger and incomplete.
Staking to optimise returns and the awareness of mathematically determined
sequences are both equally vital.
information is useful in that it can highlight the fact that a horse
is fit and ready to run to the best of its ability.
However, to gain any real benefit from that knowledge we need to be
fully aware of the strength of the opposition. This is often only
possible through detailed form study.