For the
last few months I have been "playing" with
a place betting method which requires knowing the
horse's dividend won't be less than $2.00 before they
jump. That sounds like a rather simple assignment.......and
you would think in this day and age of technology
a reasonably easy thing to incorporate in any plan.
Well,
the bottom line is that using any TAB makes that task
almost too hard.
On November
12, I was interested to observe the slowness of the
tote to reflect the updated prices. A couple of examples......
in the Snake Gully Cup I was particularly interested
in a place bet on a thing called Riebeek which had
been hovering around the 2.20 to 2.30 price mark from
around the 6 minute mark with around 17000 in the
place pool. With one minute to go the update shows
28000 in the place pool - nearly doubled in the period
2 min to 1 min as you would expect - and the price
fell in to $1.80 - so I stay out. After they jump,
another 5000 jumps in to the place pool (around another
20%) and the price eases to 1.90.
Now with
this scurrilous "rounding down" that the
TAB indulge in (not happy with their 14 to 16.5% gouge)
how close was that to being a bet at the $2.00 level
according to the rules of the method I was using?
Well, that of course I will never know.
Similarly,
in the next race at Ipswich it was interesting to
observe the figures in the place pool. In race 6,
with 2 mins to go there was $17672 in the place pool.
This became $20434 at 1 min to go, approximately $24527
with 30 secs to go, $32357 at starting time and, again,
AFTER they jumped, dramatically rose to $40950 or,
if you like, 25% increase in the pool which you could
not possibly anticipate or count on as far as estimating
approximate dividends is concerned.
So therein
lies the problem. By having three totalisator operations
in Australia and smaller pools in each, the fluctuations
with the late money ( 25% after they jump) makes it
impossible to accurately assess what these things
can reasonably be expected to pay.
The only
way you could would be if you had a live screen feed
with live instant dividend fluctuations which of course
we will never get.
It would
be less of a problem if all tote pools were amalgamated
in to one to even out the fluctuations. This of course
will never happen as too many bureaucrats are dependant
on maintaining the current system and remember, our
role as the "little people", is to keep
handing up funds to the ruling aristocracy and bureaucracy
- that's our job so get used to it!
So given
that betting in to a place totalisator of any description,
with their OUTRAGEOUS rounding down of dividends,
and their % grab on top makes it almost impossible
to win in "narrow return" situations, it
is obvious that "random" dividends is not
the way to go.
So fixed
odds must be the answer you say? Sacrifice the possible
chance of a higher totalisator dividend for the certainty
of a price equal to or in excess of your minimum requirement?
Scan the percentages on the tote fixed odds boards.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear. Your strike rate had better
be enormous if you're going to climb that percentages
mountain.
After
50 years of "supporting my friendly TAB"
I have now reached the point of "sayonara baby"
and intend doing all future punting through Betfair
and devoting time to getting the best price about
horses I'm interested in rather than wasting that
same amount of time trying to outguess the result
of this stupid late-money-in-to-the-pool-raffle. If
I wanted to bet on a chocolate wheel I'll go down
to the local school fete.
Now I
know it is not as convenient as popping down to the
TAB to get cash out and that you have to negotiate
that minor inconvenience, but the TAB route has become
impossible to negotiate to continue to justify betting
with. Until they are one pool and provide the necessary
technical infrastructure, well, adios, it's been an
interesting 50 years but your time is up. You've simply
been surpassed by a better model.
Sad but
true - the TAB is fast entering the world of Ansett,
Austin A40 cars, In Melbourne Tonight, Sheffield Shield
cricket matches and Joh Bjelke Peteresen. Interesting
in their time.... but the time has passed.
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