"X" FACTOR uncontrollable betting factors
I spent a delightful few hours at the property of a trainer who's been
a friend for a lot of years - more than both of us would care to remember,
probably! He was working a particular horse when we arrived and we were
chatting about its chances at the coming weekend's race - my friend
is not a punting trainer and hasn't been so for quite a few years and
he knows that nothing we discuss would go any further - we've known
each other for that long!!
particular horse had only recently come in to his stable and arrived
in somewhat poor condition. The previous trainer had been unable to
really put any condition on it because it simply wouldn't eat and they
couldn't work out why. Now this was a horse that had won a couple of
times on the "mainland" and, as such, would always appear
to have an excellent chance in Tasmanian races it was entered for.
previous mainland trainer had "flogged the guts out of it"
before passing it on. So my friend had spent a deal of time trying to
get this horse right. They had discovered that it had stomach ulcers
(just like people get) and once they treated that issue it started eating
up and putting on condition and was galloping very well in trials. It's
immediately previous trainer was unable to get a track work rider in
the area in which they trained and so this poor thing was being "trained"
by being led around from the back of a ute (no kidding!). Consequently
it's "form" read very poorly and it was rated very little
chance of success.
from where I stood, it had a lot going for it. For starters, it looked
in really good nick (as my friend is a great conditioner of horses and
a very good horseman - and there is a difference between good trainers
and good horsemen - or horsewomen for that matter - politically correct
- lol) - it looked 'sharp of eye", was interested in what was happening
around it - had muscled up across the chest and it just "looked
good". It had also, as I mentioned, trialled very well over the
distance of the coming event in which it was entered.
had I not happened by on that morning when it was being worked I would
have had absolutely no idea about the horse's past, the training problems
it had had, the care and attention it had been given and why it had
a reasonable prospect of success in a race in which it was again expected
to probably "finish down the track".
what's the point of all this? Simply that when you are doing your form
considerations, there are those "X factors" that you can't
possibly know or have any way of quantifying in to whatever formula
you are using. Unless you are the trainer of every horse in the race,
you won't know what problems there have been in its preparation, whether
it's been eating up normally over the last fortnight, whether the jockey
who rode it last time rode to instructions or had a brain explosion
mid race, whether it injured itself in a stable incident but they'd
been treating it as best as they could - all sorts of day to day things
that simply happen despite the best efforts of those involved.
brings HOME that no matter how careful, methodical and consistent you
are in applying a quantifying value to as many form factors as you choose
to consider, there is ALWAYS going to an X factor or two (or ten) that
you cannot possibly either know or quantify that will bring your other
it as fact - realise that you can't pick every winner for any number
of reasons, understand that there will be times when these X Factors
will appear in a sequence that may well lose you your entire punting
bank through no fault of your own.
only way to combat this is to ensure that if your punting bank should
double (and that is the object of the exercise isn't it?) that
your original punting bank be withdrawn and you start from square one
again with "their money" and work forward from there.
that bank increases, it is IMPORTANT that you withdraw profit money
on a regular basis. Why? Because if you do lose that bank you will have
done all that work, put in all those hours, exercised all that discipline,
for absolutely no benefit whatsoever and that would be very silly.
factors are real - X factors are dangerous to your future prosperity
- X factors are beyond your control.
highlights why you need to have a system of staking that eliminates
the big bet - small bet - big bet syndrome. Inevitably you will end
up having the big bet on a race in which the X factors bring you undone
and your punting bank will wave bye bye as it passes in to the hands
if you are just betting on a "percentage of bank" basis, this
will ameliorate the devastating effects of the X Factors when they come
visiting (and they will).
friend's horse? It started better than 40's and paid very well for a
place, thank you very much. I could never have supported it had I not
known of its past problems and the way they had been addressed. Now
while this aided and assisted my endeavours in this ONE race, how many
X factors worked against me in other races in which I had an interest
many were you working against yesterday? Scary isn't it?
methodology and set of ratings we distribute on this site is just as
exposed to a total wipe out combination of X Factors as every other
that is available. NOTHING is fool proof but through paying careful
attention to your staking approach, all does not have to be lost.