THE
"X" FACTORS
Recently
I spent a delightful few hours at the property of a trainer
who's been a friend for a lot of years - more than both
of us would care to remember, probably! He was working a
particular horse when we arrived and we were chatting about
its chances at the coming weekend's race - my friend is
not a punting trainer and hasn't been so for quite a few
years and he knows that nothing we discuss would go any
further - we've known each other for that long!!
This
particular horse had only recently come in to his stable
and arrived in somewhat poor condition. The previous trainer
had been unable to really put any condition on it because
it simply wouldn't eat and they couldn't work out why. Now
this was a horse that had won a couple of times on the "mainland"
and, as such, would always appear to have an excellent chance
in Tasmanian races it was entered for.
It's
previous mainland trainer had "flogged the guts out
of it" before passing it on. So my friend had spent
a deal of time trying to get this horse right. They had
discovered that it had stomach ulcers (just like people
get) and once they treated that issue it started eating
up and putting on condition and was galloping very well
in trials. It's immediately previous trainer was unable
to get a track work rider in the area in which they trained
and so this poor thing was being "trained" by
being led around from the back of a ute (no kidding!). Consequently
it's "form" read very poorly and it was rated
very little chance of success.
Now
from where I stood, it had a lot going for it. For starters,
it looked in really good nick (as my friend is a great conditioner
of horses and a very good horseman - and there is a difference
between good trainers and good horsemen - or horsewomen
for that matter - politically correct - lol) - it looked
'sharp of eye", was interested in what was happening
around it - had muscled up across the chest and it just
"looked good". It had also, as I mentioned, trialled
very well over the distance of the coming event in which
it was entered.
Now
had I not happened by on that morning when it was being
worked I would have had absolutely no idea about the horse's
past, the training problems it had had, the care and attention
it had been given and why it had a reasonable prospect of
success in a race in which it was again expected to probably
"finish down the track".
So
what's the point of all this? Simply that when you are doing
your form considerations, there are those "X factors"
that you can't possibly know or have any way of quantifying
in to whatever formula you are using. Unless you are the
trainer of every horse in the race, you won't know what
problems there have been in its preparation, whether it's
been eating up normally over the last fortnight, whether
the jockey who rode it last time rode to instructions or
had a brain explosion mid race, whether it injured itself
in a stable incident but they'd been treating it as best
as they could - all sorts of day to day things that simply
happen despite the best efforts of those involved.
It
brings home that no matter how careful, methodical and consistent
you are in applying a quantifying value to as many form
factors as you choose to consider, there is ALWAYS going
to an X factor or two (or ten) that you cannot possibly
either know or quantify that will bring your other work
"undone".
Accept
it as fact - realise that you can't pick every winner for
any number of reasons, understand that there will be times
when these X Factors will appear in a sequence that may
well lose you your entire punting bank through no fault
of your own.
The
only way to combat this is to ensure that if your punting
bank should double (and that is the object of the exercise
isn't it?) that your original punting bank be withdrawn
and you start from square one again with "their money"
and work forward from there.
As
that bank increases, it is IMPORTANT that you withdraw profit
money on a regular basis. Why? Because if you do lose that
bank you will have done all that work, put in all those
hours, exercised all that discipline, for absolutely no
benefit whatsoever and that would be very silly.
X
factors are real - X factors are dangerous to your future
prosperity - X factors are beyond your control.
It
highlights why you need to have a system of staking that
eliminates the big bet - small bet - big bet syndrome. Inevitably
you will end up having the big bet on a race in which the
X factors bring you undone and your punting bank will wave
bye bye as it passes in to the hands of others!
Even
if you are just betting on a "percentage of bank"
basis, this will ameliorate the devastating effects of the
X Factors when they come visiting (and they will).
My
friend's horse? It started better than 40's and paid very
well for a place, thank you very much. I could never have
supported it had I not known of its past problems and the
way they had been addressed. Now while this aided and assisted
my endeavours in this ONE race, how many X factors worked
against me in other races in which I had an interest that
day?
How
many were you working against yesterday? Scary isn't it?
Every
methodology and set of ratings we distribute on this site
is just as exposed to a total wipe out combination of X
Factors as every other that is available. NOTHING is fool
proof but through paying careful attention to your staking
approach, all does not have to be lost.
